Tavern talk: blues by team

Mike,

Thanks for your analysis. I'll look forward to your rankings as a nice time waster for Monday, but please stop agreeing with Simmons on everything. If you tell him you disagree I'm sure he'll understand.

Shouldn't Vincent Jackson be an almost-blue, since he was bumped from the Blue list?

Mike, nice job distilling the list down. No major complaints. Heard you on Simmon's BS Report, as a packer fan I'm busting about your super bowl picks, but also secretly worried that it could jinx us. Keep on.

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts as to why Dwayne Bowe isn't an almost blue. I understand the drops, but 2017 yards and 12 TDs over his first two years in the league speaks pretty loudly for itself- especially considering he did it as the number two option in the passing game, and is yet to play with a league average quarterback. I have no illusions that he's a blue, but I feel like he's the true definition of an almost blue- especially given that Lance Moore is one.

Nice list. Personally, I don't think Merriman deserves to be on this list until he proves that he can perform post-juice. Then again, I don't watch him closely, so you'd probably know better than me. I just remember a bunch of mediocrity punctuated by MJD blowing him up that one time. I mean, has he a had a big game after his suspension? I'm not aware of it if he has.

Also, on a lighter note, I'm not sure you need to have Chad Ochocinco's first initial in the above list. I don't think there's a chance that we're going to confuse him with somebody else. Not too many Ochocincos running around out there.

Too many players on this list and one left off. Aaron Sears is a beast for Tampa, there is nothing not to like in his game.

Is this guy blue?

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/video/20590420/index.html

Great job Mike. Most of the blues are game changers and I think in the NFL who ever has the most game changers or contributors wins. It is interesting that 5 of the 10 teams with "blue" quarterbacks made the playoffs. Half of the 4 "almost blue" qbs also quarterbacked a playoff team (Manning, Ryan). So almost half of the playoff field from last year had qbs who wouldn't make this list. When it all comes down to it though, 3 of the 4 qbs in the championship games were blues. A quarterback who might make the leap to almost blue is Russell. He has a chance right now to make a leap its just a question of will he do it?

Mike, is it safe to say that without a blue, or almost blue QB lining up under center, a team has basically no shot at making the playoffs or winning a championship. I dont know if this is a rules thing or just the adoption of more west coast offenses, but if you looked at the positions of the players ( no names attached to the players or teams) I bet it would be obvious who are the playoff teams, and what teams struggle year after year. Arizona seems to be the only team with a blue QB who isnt a lock to make the playoffs, and still i would put money on them making it back to the post season.

What about Frank Gore??

Mike-

Great analysis. I have to campaign for Anquan Boldin. His numbers are better or are on pace to be better than guys like Evans, Bryant, and Wayne. He gets overshadowed by Fitzgerald a bit, but his numbers speak for themselves. He's also put up those numbers with crappy QB's in the past (Jeff Blake and Josh McCown to name a few) and with having to share the ball with Fitz. Give the guy some love. He had 11 TD's last year in 12 games.

Good to see some love for the Steelers' Aaron Smith.

A bit surprised to not see the following players as "almost blues" for the skins :

OT C. Samuels
MLB L. Fletcher

while they are certainly not the very best at their positions they have been great for many years, which is more than a lot of people on this list.

As a Bear fan, I'd like to lobby for two Bears that should at a minimum be 'Almost Blue' - Greg Olsen and Orlando Pace. Olsen was in the top ten TEs last year in receptions and TDs and at #12 for yards - all while splitting time with Dez Clark. That performance alone should make him Blue, and then add his promotion this year and the rapport he's developed with Cutler, and you'd be remiss to think he won't be a top 5 TE this year.
As for Pace, this guy is a future HOFer, and while people will say he's declined, he still only gave up 2 sacks last year in 14 games on a horrible Rams team. He's looked sharp with the Bears and merits to be on the list above.

One more for you: I only heard about this project the other day on the BS Report podcast, so sorry if it's coming a bit late, but Eli Manning is NOT a Blue Chip. You said this project was statistically based, which should knock Manning down immediately (I should know, I do stat-based strategy consulting).
Eli benefits from a subjective sheen applied by the NY media (this I am also familiar with having lived in NY for 7 years) - he's Peyton's brother and Archie's kid, playing in the biggest media market in the country, and was at the helm when NY won their first Superbowl in ages. Let's kill the ring thing right away: winning a Superbowl does not make you a great player. Trent Dilfer won a SB, but Marino never did. Does that make Dilfer better? Obviously not by a long shot. While Eli played well in that game, he wasn't so good most of the season, but his defense carried him proving true the old adage about defense and championships (much like Dilfer).
Now to the numbers: A good/great (Blue) QB should have a completion % above 60%. Eli for his career is 55.9%, and last year was the first and only time he broke the 60 mark, and just barely (so at best you can make an argument for hiim being Almost Blue, if he continues to improve this year, but that's doubtful with his receiving corps). Compare that to the rest of the Blues - doesn't look too good. Then go to his YPA - also much lower than the rest of the Blues (which further harms the analysis of his completion % - shorter attempts should have a higher success %). Finally, look at his TD/INT ratio. Last year was excellent, but it was also an anomaly in his career.
The numbers don't lie - Eli does not deserve to be in the Blue group. At best, you could make a case for him being Almost, but that's on the belief that last year's performance will be repeated versus a performance in the mold of the three prior years.

Please disregard my last comment about Manning - just saw that Eli was downgraded on the list above from the earlier post that had him as blue. Guess we're on the same page after all.

no way in hell Paul Posluszny in Buffalo is even on the radar.
he looks the part, and has the PSU pedigree and all.....but he is flat out "AVERAGE".

avg. QB of a defense thats as vanilla as they come right now in the nfl

Really good list. I disagree with a few, but for the most part I think you got it.

However, I have one beef. Perhaps you think that the Steelers already have enough with seven players between blue and almost that you don't want to include more? I think you would have to consider the following, all of whom, in my opinion, are at the very least almost blue, while Timmons is pretty much there (you're willing to give a young guy who hasn't started a full season - Rodgers-Cromartie - the nod, but not Timmons who has shown just as much?)...

ILB James Farrior - definitely almost blue, probably not blue because he's up there in years.

K Reed - the guy is plain reliable, on equal footing with Gostkowski for sure.

ILB Timmons - going to be the reason this defense stays strong this year.

CB Taylor - I wouldn't put him at blue, but I think he qualifies as almost blue.

Anyway, just my two cents. Great work on this and thanks for sharing with us all.

where is marion barber ? i am not a cowboys fan, just thought he would be at worst almost blue. ty

I'm surprised Urlacher wasn't a Blue. I know he's older now, but I really can't think of a middle linebacker, especially in the Tampa two that Lovie likes to run, that is better than Urlacher. Does this say more about the declining importance of linebackers in the NFL, should the Bears really be worried or are you just underestimating him a little?

you need to seriously revisit the giants. ever heard of brandon jacobs?

how about kevin boss for almost blue?

or the leading rusher for the superbowl of 2007 in bradshaw?

No idea who the sixth coach could be as the first five are fairly straightforward.

Brandon Jacobs of the GIANTS is not almost blue he is blue no doubt

Gotta agree with making Brandon Jacobs a blue. He IS the Giants offense, he is who you game plan for. And I'd be willing to bet that at least 20 teams would drop their #1 RB to have him instead. Here's the list of those who WOULDN'T want Jacobs over who they have now:

Carolina
Atlanta
Tennessee
Houston

Maybe: Dallas, San Fran, Washington, and Indy / Denver because they have rookies they like. Don't even try to sell me on San Diego, because any team, if given the choice, would take Jacobs over Tomlinson.

By definition, this makes Jacobs a blue.

How is Eli Manning not considered blue?
If a Super Bowl MVP and the Pro Bowl for a 28 year old quarterback who has been in the playoffs every year that he's been a starter doesn't earn you blue status then I can't imagine what does.

While I'm not trying to go overboard on the Steelers, I agree they got a little shafted with the "Almost Blues".

If Paul Pozluzny is an "Almost Blue", then Timmons and Farrior have to be. No way Poz is better than either of them for the 2009 season. No way, no how.

And I still say Heath Miller is an "Almost Blue". I know you love verticle TE only, but Miller is one of the best All-around TE's in the league. He's an outstanding blocker and solid in the receiving game despite gettting targeted half as often as some of the bigger name TE's (Football Outsiders loves Heath Miller).

Lastly, no punter, ever, is a "Blue". Punters are the most overrated thing ever. The best punters in the league haven't sniffed the playoffs in ages. And there is little correlation at all between punters and W's and L's and playoff appearances. Not in 10 years. Maybe Al Davis (he who stupidly drafted Ray Guy and Janikowski in round 1) tried to convince you otherwise, but punters don't matter as much as people think. The Steelers have won Super Bowls with Berger and Gardocki this decade. The Patriots with transients like Josh Miller and Ken Walter.

When was the last time even a top-5 punter won a Super Bowl? And what other position can you have the worst in the league (and I'd argue Berger/Ernster were the worst) and still win a Super Bowl? None.

Kickers impact is much more tangible and to say there are "Blue" Punters and no "Blue" Kickers flies in the face of all statistcal eveidence and GM decisions around the league (kickers are more highly drafted and paid more).

So if offered the choice of Brian Westbrook or Brandon Jacobs, you obviously would take Westbrook, as you had him listed as a blue chipper, and Jacobs isn't even near blue.

I wish you were the general manager for the Eagles, the Cowboys or the Redskins.

As a Fin fan I'm surprised by having Ronnie Brown as a Blue, and seeing Pennington being bumped altogether. I think it'd be more fitting if both of them were listed as Almost Blues. If used as just a typical RB, Brown is good, but not elite yet. Maybe if he can stay healthy. But if you take out his wildcat TDs (which won't come as easily this year) he wasn't Blue.

And no mention of Pennington despite being in the top ten in yards (9th), QB rating (2nd), completion percentage (1st), and fewest interceptions among QBs w/at least 200 attempts (3rd)?

Not much argument with the list at this point – but I gotta agree with Tim on Boldin

Lee Evans has been on everyone's list of "Guy who could be special if..." or "has the talent if he gets the opportunity" but seriously; would any GM take Evans over Boldin in a draft right this minute. Boldin's numbers over the years have been consistently similar to his WR partner and they haven't been much affected by who has heaved it his way. He was special when he broke in so it isn't just because he now works the opposite side of the field from L.Fitz. and to top it all off dude gets his face broken and is back putting up numbers 2 weeks later. WTF, Mike? Thats gotta be good enough to trump a shoulda, woulda, coulda guy like Evans, No?

Big Giant fan and not a Boys fan but Marion Barber belongs on this list somewhere. He's a scoring machine.

Where did Shaun Rogers go for Cleveland? He was in your final list of blues at DT but missing from Cleveland's list of blues

I would argue that Jason Taylor should be an "almost blue." Dude is one year removed from being the Defensive MVP and his disappointing year last season had many factors not related to any decline in ability (injury, improper usage in the scheme, for the Redskins where good players go to die).

where's the love for Sam Koch? He's the best in terms of getting the ball inside the 15 yard line, regardless of where he punts from.

I really like the concept of ranking "buckets" of players by position and then weighting those positions. I have two primary comments/questions:

Why are there 10 BLUE QBs and 4 ALMOST BLUE QBs, 1 BLUE Center and 3 ALMOST BLUE Centers, 9 BLUE DTs and 7 ALMOST BLUE DTs, etc? If the positions are going to be weighted based upon a scale of importance, it would seem that the numbers of each should be consistent relative to the total number of starters in the league at each position. I would suggest quartiles (ie - 32 starting QBs: 8 BLUE, 8 ALMOST BLUE; 64 starting WRs: 16 BLUE, 16 ALMOST BLUE; 48 starting DTs: 12 BLUE, 12 ALMOST BLUE; etc).

How is the BLUE / ALMOST BLUE tag determined? Since the NFL has a short memory, is there merit to putting players into quartiles over the past 2 seasons in order to determine the BLUE / ALMOST BLUE players? A player who ranked in the top quartile in '07 and '08 should definitely be BLUE. A player who ranked in the top quartile in '07 and the 2nd quartile in '08 should be rated behind a player who ranked in the 2nd quartile in '07 and the top quartile in '08.

I know that Mr. Lombardi has been looking into this in great depth, and I'd love to get his reaction to this. (I have been looking into something similar since last year.)