The Daily Jolt's Week 1 picks

I've been asked to write a weekly picks column again this year, tapping into the growing market of gambling advice based on hunches, feelings and incorrectly read stats. (Also, for those searching for Matt Bowen's Friday column, it is available by clicking the link to Eight in the Box from the Daily Jolt menu.)

PITTSBURGH (-6) over Tennessee

I would've liked to have gotten this one right. Steelers fans unnerve me. I don’t know what it is — they’re not smug like Giants fans or yahoos like Cowboys backers. I just find them weird. They’re like baseball fans, but for football. They don’t strike me as a group with a lot of common sense. Case in point: I guess it’s tradition in some places to where the jersey of your favorite team over work clothes on the first Thursday of the NFL season. Fine, whatever: But one Steelers fan I saw really outdid himself. He had on a suit, shirt and a tie, but had pulled his Santonio Holmes jersey on over his jacket. He’d ruined his suit and turned a garment meant to be worn as a shirt into a sack. Only a Steelers fan could do that. They’ve got more passion and less common sense than just about anyone else in the NFL.

CAROLINA (+1½) over Philadelphia

The Panthers not signing Michael Vick continues to be the most inexplicable decision of the 2008 offseason. There’s a story there — God help me if I know what it is, but something’s up in Charlotte, an assessment belied by the mysterious resignation of both Richardson brothers last week. Relocation? Money troubles? New ownership? I'm open to any and all unfounded speculation.

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Jacksonville

The bad thing about working for Football Outsiders, I would imagine, is that you have to go along with DVOA even when it says some obviously insane thing like “The Jacksonville Jaguars will make the playoffs.” In their defense, the Outsiders aren’t pushing Jacksonville the way they did Baltimore last year — they’re like public defenders at a bail hearing. Well, um, yes, nobody is questioning the heinousness of the secondary, but might I direct your attention to linebacker Justin Durant? Best case scenario, Eugene Monroe comes in as a rookie and plays like Joe Thomas and the offense plays the way it did in 2007, which is to say, decently. But the defense isn’t the same as it was in 2007 — Marcus Stroud is gone, John Henderson pulls himself out of the game when he gets a grass-stain on his pants and the secondary is horrific (even Reggie Nelson, despite what you’ve heard to the contrary.) Then there’s Jack Del Rio, who actually thought the best way to toughen up his team was to fire that noted pushover, defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. An 8-8 record seems like the best they can hope for.

APPeyton Manning's arm probably won't fall off this year.

Predicting a down year for the Colts is a veritable cottage industry, but I really do think I’m right on this one. Forget about something happening to Peyton Manning — if his knee was going to explode, it would have happened on the AstroTurf at the old RCA Dome. The real concern is the effect of the coaching turnover and scheme change on the defense. The Colts won the Super Bowl in 2005 with Tony Dungy, Ron Meeks and the Cover-2. A slow start by Larry Coyer's defense sets the stage for the inevitable "You're not my real dad!" clash between the new coordinator and Dungy's holdovers.

Miami (+4) over ATLANTA

This pick drove me nuts. At a macro level, they’re the exact same team, the 2008 sleeper beset by questions about its ability to contend again this year. Fascinating, although I can’t guarantee I’ll even watch a second. I’m just a man.

Chicago (+3½) over GREEN BAY

Most under-reported storyline of the offseason? I’ll go with Rod Marinelli joining the Bears as defensive line coach. In a way, more important than the Jay Cutler trade — Kyle Orton found guys to get the ball to, but the Bears’ linemen couldn’t get anywhere near the opposing quarterback (remember Gus Frerotte’s 99-yard TD pass?). If Tommie Harris and Adewale Ogunleye return to form and Marcus Harrison and Jarron Gilbert develop like they’re supposed to, that’s the most ferocious D-line in football. It helps that they’ll play a Packers O-line that’s, um, not ferocious.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-6½) over Washington

The Redskins save their worse football for the Giants. It’s uncanny. On the upside, it does bring us one step closer to Todd Collins’ Week 6 debut and subsequent playoff charge. That will be fun.

Detroit (+13) over NEW ORLEANS

Saints kicker Garrett Hartley is my favorite NFL player currently serving a four-game suspension for testing positive for Adderall, presumably because he wanted to lose weight for Rush. He honestly may be worth clearing a roster spot for in fantasy — the guy hits 55-yarders with ease and will be kicking for the Saints. The New Orleans Saints. I’ll go on record saying Hartley ends up among the 10 highest-scoring kickers, even with only 12 games and the specter of John Carney to contend with.

APThe honeymoon is over for Todd Haley.

BALTIMORE (-13) over Kansas City

Todd Haley is an interesting sleeper pick for coach least likely to survive the season. From everything I’ve read, he was a hammerhead as an assistant, and now that he’s a head coach, he’s managed to add indecisiveness to the mix, firing offensive coordinator Chan Gailey less than two weeks before opening day. This after the confusion over whether Clancy Pendergast or Garry Gibbs would serve as defensive coordinator. It’s worth noting that Haley was the last coach hired last winter — GM Scott Pioli arrived from New England on Jan. 14, days after preferred choice Josh McDaniels agreed to terms with Denver. A lost season under Haley might be all it takes for Pioli to return to the Belichick coaching family and nab someone like Pat Hill, Maurice Carthon or even Charlie Weis.

(That being said, it's nice to see Tyler Thigpen get some game action. In terms of random, unheralded players whom I inexplicably love to watch, he’s right there with Chris Horton, Michael Bush and Barrett Ruud.)

CLEVELAND (+4) over Minnesota

The Browns’ summer was just depressing enough for them to out and stick it to a Vikings team still adjusting to new personnel groupings (it helps that the man responsible for the adjusting is one Brad Childress). I’m high on the Browns in general: I kinda wish I just bit the bullet and chose them as my second wild card in our preseason predictions instead of getting peer-pressured into going with Pittsburgh instead. Everybody knows Mangini is a doofus (and a shy doofus at that), but he’s not incompetent. They’ve got two great offensive linemen in Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach, a possibly motivated Shaun Rogers and a big-play receiver who can only play better than he did in 2008.

Denver (+4½) over CINCINNATTI

I love this line. What people forget about Denver last year is that it really didn’t matter what Cutler did — the team lost games because they were unspeakably bad on defense. I argued this point with Michael Lombardi in the spring when he questioned the signings of Andra Davis and Brian Dawkins. Yes, they’re on the downswing, but that’s still an upgrade over anything Denver had in 2008. Mediocre is a step forward. Same thing with the Mike Nolan hiring — people are questioning his defensive acumen after the debacle in San Francisco, but even reaching the level of the Niners’ defense would be progress. On the other side of the ball, passing production will drop off in the switch from Cutler to Orton, but they’ll make up for it on the ground, assuming they don’t lose 8,000 running backs to injury again this year.

NEW ENGLAND (-11) over Buffalo

A steal at -25. Parlay it with the Giants and Chargers and you’ve got a stew on.

The Rest

HOUSTON (-4½) over New York Jets
San Francisco (+6½) over ARIZONA
SAN DIEGO (-9½) over Oakland
SEATTLE (-8½) over St. Louis
Dallas (-6) over TAMPA BAY

Follow me on Twitter: RayGustini

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