The Daily Jolt's preseason gambling guide

(Editor’s note: this is the first in a series of regular columns for the Daily Jolt from RJ Bell, founder and CEO of Pregame.com, who will be with us all year breaking down the world of sports gambling.)

Today, we look at the odds to win Super Bowl XLIV. The odds you see in the general media are typically flawed in two major ways:

1. Commissions charged by sportsbooks are not adjusted for, resulting in the odds being understated substantially. For example, an event whose true odds are 10-1 against will be incorrectly stated as 7-1 against. As a result, there is a systematic overstatement of the chances of an event happening.
   
2. Odds from a lone source are considered. Unlike the stock market, the sports betting market often varies significantly in its pricing between outlets. I take a blended average of numerous prices to arrive at an accurate consensus. 

Here are the five teams with the best chance to win this year’s Super Bowl, according to Vegas: 

• New England Patriots 12% (8 to 1)
  
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 8% (13 to 1)
  
• New York Giants: 6% (16 to 1)
  
• San Diego Charges: 5% (20 to 1)
  
• Philadelphia Eagles: 5% (20 to 1)  

AP

The first eye-popper is how highly regarded the Patriots are. This fact can be stated in a number of entertaining ways: 50% better chance than any other team in the NFL; a better chance than the third and fourth teams combined; a better chance than the bottom 10 teams in the league combined; and, most amazingly of all, only two other divisions have a combined better chance than the Pats alone (NFC East and AFC North). 

Speaking of divisions, here’s how they stack up: 

• AFC East: 21%
  
• NFC East: 19%
  
• AFC North: 14%
  
• AFC South: 12%
  
• NFC North: 10%
  
• NFC South: 10%
  
• AFC West: 8%
  
• NFC West: 6% 

That’s right, New England has double the chance of winning it all than the entire NFC West. Comparing the AFC to the NFC has the AFC coming out ahead, 55% to 45%.

The overall numbers scream parity in a league renowned for it. Consider that the fourth rated team (Chargers) has only a 20-1 shot. No doubt the Brett Favre possibility is helping out the Vikings as the sixth rated team at 22-1. America’s Team, the Dallas Cowboys, is rated ninth at 24-1. Both Baltimore and Arizona are seemingly underappreciated at 37-1.

AP

Four teams (Oakland, Kansas City, St. Louis, Detroit) have less than a 100-1 chance, with the lowly Lions coming in at 250-1. And, perhaps in the most profound statement of Detroit’s perceived futility, one online sportsbook did not even have the Lions listed, implying that no one would even consider risking their hard earned money on the team. Ouch.

RJ Bell of Pregame.com is the only sports bettor on Forbes’ recent list of Gambling Gurus, and has been called “a true insider” by ESPN, "incredibly astute" by AOL and a "point-spread maven" by USA Today. RJ’s reporting has also been featured in the national media on hundreds of occasions, including SportsCenter, Nightline, The Wall Street Journal, Yahoo, and Sports Illustrated. Pregame.com is the largest sports betting news website compliant with U.S. law.

Comments

Add a Comment