One of my many highlights in the NFL while I was working in Cleveland was attending the staff meetings on Saturday nights before our games. They would start at 7:30 p.m., and head coach Bill Belichick would go over every single detail for the game. He was meticulous in his approach and let everyone know how he was going to run the game. He made it clear to everyone if we were going to call the fake field goal or the trick play we ran in practice. He would tell the coordinators if he didn’t want to see a certain play or call a certain play early in the game. He would review game situations, informing the coaches what to expect on key downs and how aggressive or not he would be in the game.
It was Masterpiece Theatre -- Belichick was a head coach in control of every phase of the game. There was no room for debate. He had film to back up all his conclusions, and there was nothing left to chance — ever. Belichick is a true head coach, controlling every aspect of the game, not a glorified play-caller with the added duties of deciding when to punt and when to kick a field goal. In Belichick’s world, luck and chance are non-existent. All he worries about is his own preparation and his ability to know the way he needs his team to play in order to win — based on the opponent.
So Sunday’s fourth-and-2 call at the New England 29-yard line was reviewed during his week of preparation for the game. Now, not having two defensive linemen, Jarvis Green and Ty Warren, played a part in the decision, and the fact he did the same thing early in the season against the high-charging Falcons made it for him. Add to that the fact that right before his eyes, he watched Peyton Manning move the ball down the field two out of three times in under 2:05 for scores, and was he was probably thinking, “I’m not going to let what happened to the Dolphins happen to my team.”
Knowing his detailed preparation, he knew his chances of converting the fourth and 2 were about 48 percent this season in the NFL, and the Patriots were 50 percent on their fourth-down conversions. And his punter, Chris Hanson, is not a boomer and only has a net gain of 34 yards on punts. So what do you calculate the odds of Manning, with all his timeouts and having to go 62 yards for a touchdown, might be? Better than 50/50? Worse? You figure it out. (Yahoo Dave, I know you’ve already written the rip job, so leave the calculator alone.)
The fourth-down call was hard for many to understand, just as the fumble in the end zone by Laurence Maroney or the interception by Tom Brady was hard for Belichick to understand. This was a game in which the Patriots made too many mistakes to win, but they easily could have won. Give the Colts credit for being able to execute at the right time with precision and detail. Jim Caldwell deserves credit for keeping his team in the game and for having a team that was prepared and loves to keep fighting. That’s an endearing quality and is not easily accessed.
Knowing Belichick for 15 years and his penchant for detailed preparation, my sense is that he made his mind up long before the fourth quarter that if the game was tight, he was not going to give the ball back to Manning and watch him move down the field for the win. He thought his best defense was his offense. He ended up being wrong, but don’t say this was a stupid mistake. It was an unconventional approach, but trust me, it was well thought out. Nothing was left to chance.
More on the games…..
Sunday show stoppers...
To the entire Cincinnati Bengals team, which had a huge win in Pittsburgh. It was a great and total team effort. Their ability to keep Ben Roethlisberger in the pocket with their pass rush was the key to the game. They won as a team — no turnovers offensively, keeping Big Ben from moving defensively and key plays from special teams.
Watch out, America, the Tennessee Titans have found an offense to highlight the skills of running back Chris Johnson (which are too many to name – he’s amazing to watch) and, more importantly, the talents of quarterback Vince Young. Young has matured, and Titans offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger has done a great job featuring his two best players.
Indy head coach Jim Caldwell for not blowing his timeouts carelessly, which allowed his team to have all the essential pieces in place for the win at the end of the game.
Cornerback Charles Woodson and the Packers defense showed up big time in their game against the red-hot Cowboys. Woodson had nine tackles, a sack, a forced fumble and his fifth interception of the season. This effort by the Packers was something we expected all season.
Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers making the right plays at the right time and keeping the ball away from scorching-hot Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb late in the game. Rivers was 5 of 6 for 54 yards on the final drive and converted two key third downs. He’s undefeated in the month of December as a starter, so the best is yet to come.
Some different thoughts...
To defeat the Steelers, you must contain Big Ben Roethlisberger in the pocket and you must bat balls down at the line of scrimmage. Sunday, the Bengals batted four balls down to go along with four sacks. That’s eight negative plays in the passing game, which is too many. This was not an accident – it was well-coached by Mike Zimmer and his entire defensive staff. That was only Roethlisberger’s sixth loss to an AFC North team.
Jake Delhomme has not turned the ball over the past three weeks, and the Panthers’ running game has gained 1,000 yards in the last five games. They’re 4-5 and might not be out of the playoff race just yet.
The countdown for the first pick in the draft begins now. The contenders are Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis and Tampa Bay, all one-win teams so far. Which of these teams can win two? My guess is Tampa, which is playing its best ball of the season with Josh Freeman now at quarterback. Cleveland against Detroit next week might not have playoff implications, but it will have huge draft implications.
I know Tampa’s Raheem Morris is a young head coach, but his emotional outburst yesterday was another indication he needs to add more seasoning to his game. He cost his team a huge penalty and lost control of himself, which is never good to show in front of your own team.
These just hit me...
…Former Patriots assistant Charlie Weis’ days as the Notre Dame head coach seem numbered, and there will be a host of NFL coaches who will want to be the next Knute Rockne. It’s official -- the coaching carousel is now open and might start in South Bend. But it will not include Jon “Love You Bro” Gruden, who seems to “love” ESPN right now.
…I love watching Chris Johnson run for three yards and I love watching him run for 30 yards, but I really love watching him run over bigger people near the goal line like he did yesterday.
…Philadelphia and Atlanta are both teams that play their best when they have the lead at the half. Their defense is best when they can take chances and pressure, but when they’re behind, they lose those opportunities.
…I really hope Eagles running back Brian Westbrook takes the rest of the season off. Two concussions in three weeks is two too many.
…Arizona finally won at home, but it took some come-from-behind miracles to make it happen. One thing about the Cards, with their passing game they’re never out of any game.
…The Cowboys’ offensive line on the road is not a good option for them to be successful in the playoffs. Flozell Adams has hearing problems, which cause him to false start too much and be late off the ball in noisy places. Home field is a must for the ‘Boys come playoff time.
…The teams that maintain their fundamentals pad level and execution the final seven weeks of the season will be the teams that make the playoffs. Luck has nothing to do with it. Execution does.
…The best part of last night’s game? It’s hoping there’s another one in January for all of us to enjoy.
Follow me on Twitter: michaelombardi
The Cowboys lost right side lineman Colombo, a huge item in that game. They could only run one direction so every time the Packers wanted to slant or stunt to stop a run the odds were that it would work because the direction their opponent could go was limited.
Charles Woodson did his masterful game of shadowing Whitten enough to make his presence with extra tackles. Inverted corner look, he essentially becomes the strong safety. The one thing to stop it was to hit Williams for a big gain on a safety, he got the catch and Woodson helped get back and cause a fumble.
Between that play, the Woodson factor, and the Colombo injury, it was what the Packers needed to assert their style of play.
If he new that was 4 down territory, why didn't he run it once. Running on short is more effective than passing on two downs. If this was his plan, why did they need to call two timeouts.
There is a huge difference than making that call then, and what happened against Atlanta. I'm actually stunned you even included that, Mike. Against the Falcons, if they did not convert, the Falcons had a shor field, but there was a whole quarter left. With no time outs left, that was basically giving up the game, as they could not control the clock when the Colts had the ball.
Mike, I know that you love Belichick more than your wife, but honestly, if Andy Reid made this decision, you would definitely have a signficatly different opinion.
Daniel- did you read anything in this article? if Payton got the ball back chances are he woulda drove down the field and scored. He did it two times already. Taking the time outs are had nothing to do with him not knowing what he was going to do as much as it was to get his team on the same page. I could be wrong but thats just what i think. His plan backfired but i think the outcome would have been the same if they punted
I love how everyone is criticizing Belichick on the assumption that Manning would not have scored if NE had punted. It is important to recognize what is at issue. Belichick sacrificed a "better chance" of preventing the Colts from scoring, or a "decreased risk" of a tying TD for the opportunity to run out the clock and keep the ball out of the Colts' hands. It was an extremely aggressive call, admittedly, but hardly foolish or outright stupid. And while you can criticize the Pats for not having the right personnel on the field and having to burn their second time out - its petty to criticize them for not saving their final timeout, right before the two minute warning, on the off chance that the LAST play before the game went to booth review MIGHT require a challenge. I have zero love for Belichick, but the piling on by the media today smacks a little too much of shadenfreude in my mind. Given Belichicks undeniable arrogance when it comes to dealing with the media, its easy to say that he has this coming, but it still seems a little over the top.
NE called the right play, and if the reliable Faulk catches the ball clean instead of juggling it, today's articles would be about the genius of Belichick. The execution came up short, but the decision was sound.
You may be right Mike, but that move speaks volumes about Belichick's arrogance and hubris.
Let alone his lack of confidence in his defense.
There is no way the Pats should have lost that game.
Add Belichick's decision to Maroney's fumble as the determining factors that led to the outcome.
If you are going to concede the TD by punting, Bill should have let Indy score on the first play. Brady would have had almost 2 min to get a field goal to win.
belichick also rescued a child from a burning building, split an atom and did a heart transplant, all at the half of yesterday's game. truly an amazing guy and a genius -- even when his decisions implode on national TV. at least mike's there to pick him up and dust off his crown.
If you are going for it on 4th down, you MUST run the ball on 3rd and 2. The 2 wasted timeouts and the 3rd down passing play-call were my only issues with the Patriots. I have no problem with them going for it on 4th and 2. But you have to run the ball on 3rd.
Here is why I respect Belichick so much. The data suggest that he actually probably did the right thing if his objective was to win the game. Economist David Romer studied years worth of data and found that, contrary to conventional wisdom, teams seem to punt way too much. Going for a first down on fourth and short yardage in your end zone is likely to increase the chance your team wins (albeit slightly). But Belichick had to know that if it failed, he would be subjected to endless criticism.
If his team had gotten the first down and the Patriots won, he would have gotten far less credit than he got blame for failing. This introduces what economists call a “principal-agent problem.” Even though going for it increases his team’s chance of winning, a coach who cares about his reputation will want to do the wrong thing. He will punt, just because he doesn’t want to be the goat. (I’ve seen the same thing in my research on penalty kicks in soccer; it looks like kicking it right down the middle is the best strategy, but it is so embarrassing when it fails that players don’t do it often enough.) What Belichick proved by going for it last night is that 1) he understands the data, and 2) he cares more about winning than anything else.
BB played for the win. They get two yards- game over. Statistically, it's a 50/50 shot. If they don't, their D has to stop them from picking up 28 yards. So what gives you the best chance of winning. 50/50 shot of game over + plus your D to stop 28 yards. OR, punt (0 shot of game being over) and your D with 70 yards?
Last night, I hated Belichick's call, but today I realize I just hated the result. The Colts played (and coached) a great game. Hopefully, we'll get a chance to play them again this year.
Agree with you, Mike. Great column. The Belichick call wasn't "that" bad of a call. I'm glad they lost, though. I hate the Patriots.
There is a great paper about going for it on 4th down compared to kicking. Going for it on 4th down increases your chance of winning by 3%. It doesn't guarantee you are going to win, but I don't have a problem with Belichick going for it. If he makes it, everybody would be talking about a great call. Give Belichick credit for making the call, and having the confidence to do so. If you are interested in the paper, google: DO FIRMS MAXIMIZE? EVIDENCE FROM PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL by David Romer.
"So what do you calculate the odds of Manning, with all his timeouts and having to go 62 yards for a touchdown, might be?"
The Colts did not have all their timeouts. They called at least two to kill the clock on the first two downs. I think they may have had one left.
I think am important point about Belichick's decision is not the Patriots' ability to play defense on Manning the whole 60+ yards after the punt, but only between the 20's.
With 3 timeouts and 2 minutes, Manning had enough time from anywhere. Time was not the factor.
Belichick knew his plan for defending Manning was all about the red zone. He couldn't defend the whole field, he would have given up the yardage between the 20's anyhow. His defense was gassed. Belichick's last stand was the red zone.
When you know HOW Belichick was considering defending Manning in the last 2 minutes, why not go for it and try to win with Brady? In Belichick's mind, he had two choices: Win with Brady or Win with red zone defense. Both were still viable options. He wasn't going to win the game vs. Manning between the 20's. People are fooling themselves if they believe that.
If that decision was made by Andy Reid, Mike would be saying he needs to hire a "game manager"
Good point Josh. The colts did in fact only have 1 timeout left. They called timeout after 1st and 2nd, and then the Patriots passed on 3rd stopping the clock.
I was all in favor of going for it on 4th Down, but people are giving Bellichick way too much credit. The decision to go for it on 4th down was downright gutsy (and smart, I would argue), but the decision to throw on 3rd down was incredibly stupid.
Not for nothin'... but ESPN has been running a stoped frame shot of FAULK being clearly over the 1st down spot with control of the ball -knee down...
Im not tryin to post "sour grapes " crap or anything but if the Line judge makes the correct call , Pats rightly get there new set of downs .
( Ironically the NFL Head of Refs issued a statement today stating the play was called correctly ...hmmm I dont ever remember the NFL offices officially commenting on a "correct" call ...fishy )
At any rate - the Colts don't wear black stripes and they earned their V ...impressive comeback.
Michael, you're dead wrong about Woodson. He had TWO forced fumbles, not one! :-)
It just doesn't add up. If this was well-planned why did they send the punt team out, call time and then eventually decide to go for it? Why didn't they run on 3rd and 2 to set themselves up better if they already knew they were gonig for it on 4th down? I understand the thought process but the way the thing went down puts the lie to it being planned out ahead of time.
That whole sequence was chaos. They come back from tv timeout and blow a timeout. Run a couple plays, send the punt team out, call timeout, and then finally go for it. I just don't see how leaving yourself unable to challenge and passing on 3rd rather than setting up with a run shows that this was a cunning plan.
And come on with the "Manning was absolutely guaranteed to score when he touched the ball no matter the field position or the number of timeouts." Manning isn't perfect, he was putting up some wild ducks for a bit there and his young receivers were making mistakes all over the place. At the *very* least if the Hoodie's as on top of his game as advertised he shoulda let the Colts score.
I'm not buying it. That was just absolutely atrocious timeout/clock/4-down management at the end there. I'm with Dan, if Reid did this Lombardi's head would explode.
Historically, when other coaches have gone for 2 after a TD to "win" the game instead of settling for a tie by kicking an extra point, the media lauds their "courage" and "competitive spirit" or "chutzpa" by trying to win the game instead of the conventional strategy..
....But now when Belichick does it, it's "arrogance" or (and only geeky columnists use this word) "hubris"
Why the 180 degree reaction? Because Belichick is a polarizing figure who is hated by the media and they pounce when they have the chance...
So i say screw the media and give Belichick credit for having the balls to do it and if he's guilty of arrogance, its the arrogance of not worrying what the media will say....
BB went for the win, which is understandable, but also cost his team the game. You are very big on saying he plans for everything, but it doesn't seem he planned for the alternative if they failed. They wasted time-outs and didn't give themselves a way to win back the game if their offense didn't get the 2 yards and if their defense couldn't hold Indy by giving up the lead. Sure it was a gutsy, aggressive call, but you have to let your Defense win you the game. The Colts would have had to go 70 or so yards for a TD drive - maybe with Manning that's not as hard as it is for many, but you gotta play the percentages and the right move is to punt and buckle down on Defense and make a few plays. Bellichek literally lost the game for his team. People love to rip Andy Reid or many other coaches for poor clock management or ill-timed decisions, but in all my years of watching football, I can't recall a coach actually giving away a win in this manner and that's exactly what BB did. If any other coach did this, most of the media who defends him no matter what, would be up in arms, but since it;s the genius BB, you rationalize it and that's pretty lame, especially if you're supposed to be an unbiased spectator giving the inside scoop on games and teams. Anyways, the Colts won, and perhaps if these teams play in the playoffs BB will make better decisions, but in all honesty, most people overlook the fact that the Colts could be playing at a much higher level and won't have to come back from 17 or 13 to begin with.
Mike..your the best...that was the most ridiculous defense of Bellicheck to date....as long as he plans his arrogant terrible decision..then its ok... have to applaud your consistency and loyalty... i used to be baffled by peter kings man love for favre..but you definitely have him beat... I will no longer harp on your love for bellicheck... this article says more than i ever could....
Belichek wasn't planning on 4th down, so why would he run it on 3rd? He passed on 3rd down to try to pick up the first and avoid 4th down altogether. Once they failed to pick up the 1st on 3rd, THEN the choice was made to go for it on 4th.
I find it interesting that someone would blame Maroney's fumble on Belichek. Belichek is the coach, he's not responsible for players not executing. Maroney had more than one goal-line TD this year prior to that fumble. Can't see how you can fault Belichek for that.
Nice article, Mike.
As a Packer fan, I'd be remiss if I didn't correct you and say Woodson had TWO forced fumbles (one on Roy E. WIlliams and one on Romo) in addition to the stat line you mentioned.
When people say that he should have "played the percentages" and punted, do they actually know these percentages or are they just spattering out cliches to try to sound knowledgeable?
Blame the timeout management or play-calling all you want but the actual decision to go for the win on 4th down wasn't a bad or arrogant move by any standard.
bottom line is calls are judged by results...and..bellicheck blew it..cuz he didnt get it...and he blew a 17 pt lead in the fourth quarter...a 13 pt lead with 4 minutes left...hes time management was atrocious ...as bad as any andy reid game this year.. ..and if u want to give him a mulligan because of his history...then we need to start talking about his recent history of closing out leads in big games ...because..he seems to have lost it...
Dear yahoodave,
Who says "calls are judged by results"? Is this a rule you just made up yourself before typing that post or is this some sort of universal tenet passed on from a higher being? And what exactly makes something "bottom line"? I would guess that only YOU subscribe to that certain ideology. Then again, YOU also produced the phrase "hes time management was atrocious" and YOU also seem to think that three consecutive periods is the proper way to separate your incoherent ramblings. Any idiot (i.e. you) can look at the end result and deem the call a failure without considering the many non-coaching related mistakes that led to such a result.
The one thing I have never gotten is this. Everyone always raves about Bill, but how come nobody questions his drafting? Look at the last few years. Yes Mayo is good, but that is 1/7 for 2008.
2007? just Merriweather. 2006? Maroney is still on the team. but I have to think they would have hoped for more out of their top pick. Again nothing else. Gostkowski is one of those years
2005 they did get Cassel, Kaczur, Mankins, and Ellis Hobbs. Hobbs and Cassel are now gone. The pats have done a good job acquiring vets but it seems like their college scouting needs to improve a little bit or maybe their player development.
I would guess that only YOU subscribe to that certain ideology. Then again, YOU also produced the phrase "hes time management was atrocious" and YOU also seem to think that three consecutive periods is the proper way to separate your incoherent ramblings.
Any idiot (i.e. you) can look at the end result and deem the call a failure without considering the many non-coaching related mistakes that led to such a result.
Thank you.
A list of thank yous and a final...
Even if you called me an idiot,...
Their success will depend on QB...
Titans coach wants Chris Johnson...
Now is the QB’s chance to show...
Nov 16, 2009
05:48 PM
If Belichick knew all along that he'd be going on 4th and 2, why take his last timeout just before the play? Was that also planned?