The NFP's Matt Bowen makes his predictions for the Thanksgiving games. Matt Bowen
The National Football Post’s Matt Bowen gets you ready for the slate of Thanksgiving games by making his picks.
Green Bay (6-4) at Detroit (2-8)
12:30 (EST) FOX
Current Line: Packers -11
As with any short week in the NFL, injuries take center stage. In Detroit, both QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson are banged up. Stafford is expected to be a game-time decision, and although we all want to see the rookie play, I don’t think the game plan will be altered much if we do see backup QB Daunte Culpepper in the lineup. Expect the Lions to take some deep shots down the field early—testing this Packers secondary without Al Harris—hoping to get a big play that allows them to head into halftime with a chance to make adjustments to win this game. But, even in saying that, I like the Packers matchup with Aaron Rodgers against a very average Lions secondary that should produce enough points to take over this game by the start of the fourth quarter—when Ford Field should begin to empty out. We would all like to see the Lions match up with the Packers, but it isn’t going to happen. I like Green Bay as the Packers move to 7-4 and continue their playoff push.
Packers 33 Lions 17
Oakland (3-7) at Dallas (7-3)
4:15 (EST) CBS
Current Line: Cowboys -13 ½
The Raiders were able to upset the Bengals last week because they made plays in crucial situations and had a quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski, who was prepared and ready to carry out the game plan. The Raiders have talent—that has never been a question—but the problem has always lied in their execution. And with JaMarcus Russell on the bench, this team can operate with more fluidity as an offense. But, can they pull off another win in Dallas? The Cowboys didn’t have the big play last week, and against a solid front four in Oakland, Romo will have to deliver the ball with pressure in his face. Jason Witten did practice yesterday, and having him in the lineup will be big for the Cowboys. But this game comes down to the Cowboys’ ability to run the ball in the fourth quarter—which they do as they hold off Gradkowski and the new-look Raiders.
Cowboys 24 Raiders 16
NY Giants (6-4) at Denver (6-4)
8:15 (EST) NFL Network
Current Line: Giants -6 ½
Denver has been brought back down to earth with this four-game losing streak, and its defense under Mike Nolan—which at one point was the top-ranked unit in the league—is having issues stopping the run and getting off the field. The last two weeks the Denver defense was carved up by both Washington and San Diego on the ground, and with the Giants coming into town, I don’t expect that to change. With RB Ahmad Bradshaw out for New York, look for Brandon Jacobs to have a 20-plus carry night and get over the 100-yard mark. But, the Broncos will be able to make plays against a Giants secondary that was exposed last week against the Falcons and has not been productive for the majority of the ’09 season. I like the matchup of Brandon Marshall outside of the numbers, and if Kyle Orton is back on the field, Denver will be able to produce points—although it won’t be enough. In a game that turns into a second half shootout, I like the Giants on the road.
Giants 27 Broncos 23
Have a great Thanksgiving.
Follow me on Twitter: MattBowen41
To read more about the Lions on Thanksgiving, check out this article from Bleacher Report.
Oy. The Dallas fans enjoyed the win on their visit. He said "it's a great place for football." Went to a concernt there, said it wasn't great for acoustics. Football is what it's made for as a stadium, the Cowboys team is made for winning.
Nice to see the Raiders get outside on those sweeps, sad to see them give up on the game plan so early after a couple of coverage errors at safety put them in the hole on the scoreboard. There's not enough execution or timing right now at wideout. DHB needs to earn some money sometime soon, or sit next to Russel.
So much for your Broncos/Giants prediction, Matt.
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Nov 26, 2009
03:00 PM
Okay Matt, this isn't the usual Raiders. Back from a visit at the fams'(all Cowboys fans, and former season ticket holders from Dallas are in town as well) so this has gotta be a fast post.
The Woodson factor killed Dallas last week, the way they switch him to safety and nullify Whitten is something the Raiders do against Gates or Gonzales in recent years. It's in the team background to copy that style early with former college safeties Nnamdi Asomugha and Stanford Routte playing corner.
That might give the Raiders a chance to make some extra plays with the game plan.
Dallas can bring the heat, so Oakland must run and screen well to counter that early. The problem is that the Cowboys front can bring it from both outside linebackers, they are basically defensive ends. Until you get the feel for which end is bringing it you can't set protections to the fronts. This gives the Dallas safeties and linebackers help in coverage(team's main weakness).
Miller can take it those players as the Raiders best passing target. Rich Gannon's commentary noted how poorly Russel was at changing or checking plays, he only did it for runs because he never mastered passing intricacies. The same week Gannon was reportedly being snubbed media access to practices.
The Raiders current quarterback is young, but he's a "gym rat" and he studies the game up. We may see him able to change plays and reset vs. fronts without it being a signal to our play selection. He probably goes quick count instead and just works the initial read faster so their defense cannot move and shift to try and dictate the course of action.
The Dallas corner play is very good this year, but with Jenkins playing hurt expect Oakland to run a couple of sweeps his way early. If the contact comes his way(or to their nickle man if he starts or replaces him) and that slows Dallas coverage down Grads will be play passing that direction a lot.
Nnamdi can also match up with Roy Williams in solo coverage and change much of Romo's reads in that regard. This game should be a lot closer, if nothing else for the fact that Oakland is playing team ball with Gradkowski starting now.
The best beer bet to make today:
How many times Lechler hits the huge viewing screen above the playing field on punts. He can spiral punts through the roof rafters of the dome in St.Louis during pregame roadie warmups there. He should get wait until they show some of the lovely cheerleaders on the screen and fire away, extra brag rights if he can hit it then!
You've got to get on Dallas early, their fans will turn or get complacent quickly if you create any kind of scoreboard separation or surge the momentum. Pains me to say it has been the case for my own team for several seasons now. Get the crowd quiet so more count items can work in Grad's favor. Dallas is famous for giving up silent counts in the red zone at times, maybe the new stadium helps change that since so many more football fans are there now.