I love December football in the NFL. Over the course of one month, we get to see teams fight for home-field advantage, playoff spots and the right to play on wild card weekend. And, from my point of view, it’s the time of the year defenses — great defenses — earn their paychecks and lead teams into meaningful January games.
In saying that, if you had to pick a defense to count on in December, which one would you choose? Like any NFL discussion when it comes to defense, the talk always tends to slide toward the Ravens and the Steelers, but when you look at the numbers, they tell a different story after 12 weeks.
Here are the top five defenses ranked in total yards allowed per game:
1. Green Bay (273.5)
2. NY Jets (276.4)
3. Denver (288.9)
4. Cincinnati (293.2)
5. Pittsburgh (297.3)
But those are just numbers. Let’s look a little closer at each defense and decide for ourselves who’s the best, and who you’d want taking the field with a fourth-quarter lead and a playoff berth on the line.
Green Bay (8-4)
I still think the Packers’ two most impressive wins of the season came at Lambeau against the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens — because they didn’t win with big plays down the field from the offense and Aaron Rodgers. Instead, they forced turnovers, set up Rodgers with field position, and when they needed a big play, they found a way to get their hands on the football. Dom Capers’ defense — under fire earlier in the season — has evolved to the point that the loss of Pro Bowl defenders OLB Aaron Kampman and CB Al Harris hasn’t affected their production. They can pressure out of the 3-4 front, they have the ultimate playmaker in CB Charles Woodson, a ball hawking FS in Nick Collins and young talent at the LB position who can get to the QB. And when they want to, they can show multiple looks in their front seven, causing confusion in blocking schemes and allowing free runners to the football. They’re becoming a defense that dictates the flow of the game to the opposing offense — and that wins.
NY Jets (6-6)
We shouldn’t act surprised about Rex Ryan’s defense in New York because we expect them to attack and we expect them to play solid man coverage in the back end. The Jets are a .500 team at this point of the season because of their struggles as an offense and the number of turnovers by rookie QB Mark Sanchez. That defense is still nasty, and it still causes game-plan issues for opposing offenses, because when they pressure, receivers have to be able to beat man coverage in the 3-step game, and when the Jets drop into coverage, there’s no one better in 2009 than CB Darrelle Revis at taking a receiver out of the game. But overall, it’s the complexity this defense shows in its pre-snap alignment, along with its execution, that allows them to play a style of defense that forces quarterbacks to unload the ball before their feet are even set. By far, the best front seven of the top five defenses, and that’s carrying them despite their offensive struggles under Sanchez.
Denver (8-4)
Before the Broncos hit a midseason slump and dropped four in a row, Mike Nolan’s defense in Denver was the league’s No. 1 unit. But opposing offenses found a way to run the ball on them in the downhill power game. However, the Broncos have made the proper corrections to contain the run. They’re not going to be a shut-down defensive front in Denver, but on the flip side, they rank second in the league at defending the pass, giving up just over 180 yards per game. The reason: Their ability to rush the passer from the defensive end position and the overwhelming amount of talent they have in the secondary with CBs Champ Bailey and Andre’ Goodman, plus free safety Brian Dawkins. As a defense, when you have that type of ability in the back end, you can send extra pressure and you can rely on taking chances because you know as defensive coordinator the secondary will do its job. I like this defense under Nolan. It’s undersized, but it can run and pursue the football, and it has the best overall secondary of the top five.
Cincinnati (9-3)
We used to think of offense when we talked about the Bengals because of QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Ochocinco, but this is a different Bengals team. They use a ball-control attack on offense with RB Cedric Benson, and their defense is the best unit in the AFC North. They have the ability to pressure the QB and have two of the most underrated corners in the league in Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall. The loss of DE Antwan Odom to an injury was supposed to kill this unit early in the season, but from my perspective, it’s gotten better since the DE went down, as guys like Jonathan Fanene have stepped up and produced. The thing about Mike Zimmer’s defense is that it’s underappreciated, isn’t pretty and doesn’t have the big names. But it stops the run with that front four and can run with receivers in the secondary. Sounds like a solid December defense to me. But do the Bengals have a dominant playmaker?
Pittsburgh (6-6)
The defending champs still boast a top-five defensive unit, but where are the plays? Of the Steelers’ six losses, five have come despite fourth-quarter leads — something unheard of under Dick LeBeau in Pittsburgh. But they’re a heavy zone blitz team, and when you send pressure and don’t make plays on the QB or in the secondary, the defense is hung out to dry. Yes, the time that safety Troy Polamalu (whom I still consider the best safety in the game) has missed has hurt this unit from a playmaking standpoint, but there are enough playmakers without him who should be able to get their hands on the football. However, even in saying that, I still like this defense down the stretch because it’s creative, it can stop the run and it has the experience of a postseason team that should be able to put on a late-season run. I’m still buying them.
Who do you choose?
I’m curious about which team you’d take. Which defense is the one you want on the field at this point in the season, and which defense can you count on for the next four Sundays and into the postseason?
For me, I’m going with a defense that can pressure, can make plays on the football and has the ability to come on the field in an adverse situation after a big turnover by the offense and shut the door. Causing turnovers wins at any level of football, but it’s crucial in the NFL when the snow starts to fall. And the Green Bay Packers have intercepted 21 passes through 12 weeks and own a turnover ratio of plus-18.
I’m taking the Pack.
Follow me on Twitter: MattBowen41
I'm taking the Bengals based more on THE most important stat when judging a defensive unit (in my opinion): Points per game! Here the Bengals rank first overall.
The logic behind using points allowed to judge the defensive rankings is simple, if you allow the fewest points, you're giving your team the best opportunity to win games. I'd rather allow a Manning/Brees/Brady to trounce 80 yards down the field and stuff them in the red zone, letting them settle for a field goal. As opposed to holding them to a abysmal performance with <2-300 total, but allowing too many touchdowns.
Using yards allowed to rank the best defense is flawed, because it hides the most important asset to a defense: Preventing the opponent from scoring, and that is what it's all about for a defense.
That said, I'm a Packers fan, and I'm absolutely loving the way their defense has evolved during the season. Here's hoping Capers will be locked up for at least another year before he's off to revive yet another reeling defensive unit.
Capers came under fire because nobody in GB wanted to lose twice to Minnesota. It was a severe assault on Packer Pride to be carved up twice by Favre. But after the very impressive victory over Dallas and susbsequent three consecutive convincing wins, all is well in wintry Wisconsin. The real test for this defense (any defense, really) will come against the Cards or, God forbid, the Saints in the playoffs. I very much doubt Minnesota wants to see GB again.
Norm - Capers found himself between a rock and a hard place early this year. Personally, I don't think Kampmann ever really bought into the system and a number of key guys had a lot of rust to work off due to injuries last season and in the off-season. At this point, the rust is gone and where Kampmann didn't buy in, Jones most certainly has and brings more speed at that OLB position. The big question marks now are inexperience and lack of depth in the backfield.
At this point, I'd still take them over any other D in the league but that is more a function of this not being a good year for defense. You have to go back to 2005 to find a D ranked this high allowing this many yards per game and they allow an average of over 19pts per game. They're very good, but there really isn't a truely great defense out there this year.
Caper's defenses are not easy. The Packer defense has grown slowly game to game and seems still on the rise. They lost Kampman and Harris, but haven't lost a beat. Everyone talkes about Woodson, and rightfully so, but it has been constant line play that is the real heart of this defense. Jenkins, Pickett and Jolly have done a terrific job, but like all 3-4 linemen dont's get the press. Now add Rajii, who is coming on and on like a steamroller, and what a rotation. Anyone notice that tackle Rajii made of Rice behind the line? Huge and speed. I don't know if they are the "best" defense, but I wouldn't want to play them.
With a healthy Merriman , I would take San DIego over those five . Serious .
I'm jealous as a Bear fan to read this. Can we transplant the '85 D with Dent and Singletary back to Halas Hall.
Nope, we have Lovie instead. Awesome.
monday night was the second time i watched the packers his season. the first time was against minnesotta. all i can say is WOW, what a differnece. while i have no doubt they woudl rather have al harris back their than armbar williams. i have NO doubt if they meet minnesotta again Mr. favre (who looks to be getting back to his old december form) would be petrified. clay matthews HAS to be rookie defensive player of the year, talk about a difference maker good lord, he's EVERYWHERE
Scott M has a great point. The Packers weren't going to demote Kampman, obviously, and I'm not saying they should have. He was taking a long time to adjust to the 3-4, and I don't think he ever got to like it. His replacement, Brad Jones, looks a lot more comfortable doing what Capers asks him to do. It would be sad to lose Kampman to another team, I love the guy and he really seemed to fit in Green Bay, but that was in a 4-3.
the Steelers defense is terrible. they're top 5 by yard stats only. they've been the achille's heel of the team all year long. the only time they've come up with a crucial stop was against Daunte Culpepper & the Lions. every other time they've needed to make a stop in the 4th quarter to preserve a lead they've failed. even in their second game against Cincinnati they let up consecutive field goal drives in the 4th when the game was originally tied. their secondary is playing worse than it ever has this decade, far worse than the Dewayne Washington/Chad Scott days.
OK, I'll admit it, I'm a Packer fan. But Marcopo nailed it. The heart of this D is the line, and the ability to stop the run. Only 2 backs have gone over 100yds this year on this D, Benson in week 2, and Jackson in week 3. Now, it seems the Pack has Caper's scheme down and they are crushing ball carriers. The LB play has also been quite good, not to mention Woodson having a Defensive MVP season. But it's Pickett, Raji, Jolly,Jenkins and company who carry this D. You don't want to face this D in the post season...
And Matt, love your work. You ask good questions, good topic selection, and write well.
Thanks.
The fallacy of judging defenses on yardage was never better represented than on MNF.
The Packers gave up 106 yards in P.I's, none of which go onto their defensive stats, that's over 100 yards that could/should be added on because the defender stopped the offensive team getting that yeardage through cheating.
Add that the packers are one of the most penalised team interms of penalties in the NFL, the porous special teams where the opposition are starting so high up the field and before you know it, a drive that should give the defense 80 yards to on the stat sheet is taking away an extra 15-20 from ST and 10-20 on penalties leaving the defense accredited with just 40 yards on a TD drive.
The concept of defenses ranked in total yards allowed per game is completely fallacious.
Why do you think that Kampman didn't buy in, it was a new expierence for him and voiced some frustration after the Vikings game. But in all reality he did a good job in coverage, and was improving rushing the passer. The guy should be in green bay again next year (whos going to sign a guy coming of an ACL tear?) and should compete at OLB. The way Jones was relapced him gives the packers a great deal of depth in the future. With or without kampman this defence would be where it is.
@Daniel:
I myself am no fan of grammar police, but I must correct your error. The word is spelled "fellatious." Thanks.
Daniel,
You're right. Partly anyways. You can't rate a defense on one category, they all have their faults.
I think GB is 8th in points per game. But that is inflated because of a horrible special teams ranked 32nd by Football Outsiders, opponents have been given a short field all year. In the Min and TB games alone, 40+ points were from turnovers and special teams.
Good stats to also look at are avg yds/rush and avg yds/pass. Both of which GB is in the top 5. Also in the top 5 in QB rating and 3rd down pct. That is pretty good.
Speaking of Football Outsiders, they bring all of these stats + strength of schedule into their rankings and GB come out #1.
I wouldn't give credit to the Pass Interference yardage because those were judgemental penalties. If that was a different crew on Monday night I could see 2 or 3 PI called instead of 9.
Colts defense should (as almost always) get more love.
They probably are awful in the yards stat. I haven't looked and I tend to judge defenses more by who they played and their PPG as well as clutch plays. The Colts D is third in the NFL in PA and seem to come up with clutch plays a lot. Last season they were a big reason the Colts hung around and won while their O got in gear. I know they are looked at as second rate because a lot of times they depend on their O to get big leads so they can just rush the passer but as a Pats fan I have seen enough of them over the years to know they are a legitimately very good unit.
Daniel, While you bring up a "point", it doesn't mean it's a great one. Penalties are judgement calls. There were terrible calls for both sides all night... at least as far as the PIs go. There was an interference on DD I thought was rediculous, and I'm a Packer fan. There were two on Williams I thought the same way about... While both the WR and he fought a little, he was going for the ball on both plays... at some point the league needs to review this and give the DBs a little break. I liked the way they called it a couple years ago, let them play.
If it wasn't for those PIs, which lined Baltimore on the 1 yard line twice, they would've been lucky to get 6 points in that game.
While I'm worried about the loss of Harris (and agree what people have been saying about the loss of Kampy)... give me the Packer D. They've held Peterson (2x), Gore, Barber, and Rice to under 100 or much less.
Daniel-
The Packers have a reputation for being a very penalized team, but if you look at the breakdown by "penalties by unit" you'll see that the Packers defense has actually been in the top five of "least penalized defenses" all year. It's their offense and special teams that seem to attract the laundry.
Daniel - please enlighten us as to which defensive statistic is more credible.
I will then then show you how the Packers are in the top 3 - 5 in virtually every major defensive statistic (i.e. Yds per play, 1st down per game, 3rd dwn %, INTs, FUMs) other than Pts per game (8th), which using your reasoning is bloated due to the additional yardage and thus points given up by 'porous' special teams and the most penalties in the league.
I actually think Arizona's Defense is underrated. They were the first to give Farve and company a hard time in a while and they excell at stopping the run. They have talent in the secondary. I also like what Gregg Williams is doing with New Orleans. But of the 5 on your list Green Bay has the best chance to do something if they get into the playoffs. They will match up best with their opponents as I think the AFC is a stronger Conference.
Marcopo hits the nail on the head. The four guys manning the 3 in the 3-4, Pickett, Jenkins, Jolly, and Rajii, are playing great, especially in the run game. I think the other key to the Packers' success in stopping the run has been much better gap discipline by the linebackers, especially Barnett and Hawk. In the season's early games, Barnett in particular seemed to overrun the running back, leaving cutback lanes. Now, the down linemen and the backers are maintaining their gap responsibilities and running backs are finding solid walls of Packers and no cut backs when running the ball.
I agree that points allowed is probably more important than yardage for a defense, but two huge byproducts of giving up little yardage is both time of possession and field position. the packers have completely owned both (despite atrocious punt/punt coverage that always give up touchbacks or those fu--ing illegal block in the back penalties that happen every fu--ing game but i digress).
Our defense [yes i said "our" because i own stock in the packers which gives me the right to say our (jk)] starts at the line of scrimmage, but it basically relies on the play of the four linebackers to either stop the run, rush the quarterback, or drop into coverage. Clay matthews is ALWAYS around the ball, causing fumbles or disrupting the offense's rhythm.
I don't know what to believe about our kick coverage. We either stop them and look perfect or they bring it back to the green bay side of the field, but rarely in the end zone, but later score (this happened against the vikings, bucs, and ravens).
It's about time to cut mason crosby, pro kickers don't consistently miss 40 yarders
Of those defenses, I'd probably take GB too, but I just know to a certainty that Jarrett Bush is a time-bomb waiting to explode at the worst possible time. I like Williams, and don't mind the penalties because he's playing hard and aggressive. Jarrett doesn't do that. He lays off his guy and looks uncertain at all times. The game-plan on Monday called for a heavy dose of the Big Okie, which kept Bush off the field (although he still managed to give up a touchdown even in very limited action). But I didn't get the sense that the coaches were intentionally hiding Bush, which is what they should be doing. Mark my words, they'll put him out there in a critical situation, and the team will get badly burned for it. I hope it doesn't happen in a playoff game, but I think it will.
...and they'll probably fight to keep him in the off-season again anyway. I don't get it, but their love for him is blind.
In spite of being a "way wound too tight" Packer zealot, I will refrain from commenting about my complete agreement with Matt. (OK, I snuck it in the back door, lol)-Plus my fellow zealots seem to have it handled :)
I just wanted to give a shoutout to Spudhawk and his comment. Arizona really laid the wood on the Vikes Sunday night. That Cardinal defense came to play...I was especially impressed with their tackling.
Thank you Arizona Cardinals, especially their defense...maybe not so much for playoff ramifications, but at least you guys took some of the (extremely hot) air out of the sails of my Viking fan friends, and that is not without value, trust me. lol
Wonder why I've beena Packer fan all my life? This past Monday Night's game is one of several reasons.
Of course there was that period of no championships that lasted for thirty years.
But, The Pack still has 12 championships, which is considerably more than everyone else, is it not?
The scoring stats are akewed also because if a team scores on an interception return or fumble recovery, that counts as well. The Jets D has the lowest scoring avg. if you only count points actually allowed by the defense. They've given up 16 touchdowns and 16 field goals on the season while Cinn has given up 19 TD's and 14 field goals. Thats 160 points by the Jets and 175 by Cinn. Pitt has given up 18TD's and 17 FG's for 177 points, Denver has given up 17 TD's and 21 field goals for 182 points and the Corboys have given up 22TD's and 15 FG's for 199 points.. So average per game is:
1. Jets 13.33 ppg
2. Cinn 14.58 ppg
3. Pitt 14.75 ppg
4. Denver 15.17 ppg
5.Cowboys 16.58 ppg
If you combine yards per game and scoring per game Jets are No. 1 as well. Not bad for a 6-6 team.
Caper's defenses are not easy. The Packer defense has grown slowly game to game and seems still on the rise. They lost Kampman and Harris, but haven't lost a beat. Everyone talkes about Woodson, and rightfully so, but it has been constant line play that is the real heart of this defense. Jenkins, Pickett and Jolly have done a terrific job, but like all 3-4 linemen dont's get the press. Now add Rajii, who is coming on and on like a steamroller, and what a rotation. Anyone notice that tackle Rajii made of Rice behind the line? Huge and speed. I don't know if they are the "best" defense, but I wouldn't want to play them.
The neat thing is everyone's right on statistics. Twenty years ago, when I considered myself a serious handicapper, I spent hours mulling over numbers. Yuck. Even points allowed is flawed because it doesn't take into consideration turnover points, or short fields due to special teams or whatevers. The stats are only tools. The best tool is your eyeballs. IMO, the singlemost meaningful stat is point differential, which measures the team in general. Unfortuneatly you gotta do the math, lol.
What most folks don't know is pro teams scout the refs as well and that does go into game planning. Both the Ravens and Packers pride themselves in being aggressive and therefore take more risks. They knew this ref squad calls it close (too close) and elected to ignore it.
I am curious, Jakov, whether, when you write about 'points allowed', are you realy talking about ONLY the points actually allowed by the defensive unit, or are you simply looking at the PA column in the standings and basing your opinion on that.
If the latter, then that is at least as flawed as ranking defenses based on yards, because the PA includes safeties (which are scored against the offense, not the defense), as well as fumble returns for TDs and pick-six interception returns (also against the offense).
Not to mention kickoff and punt returns for TDs.
and, when a defense allows a score after one of its offensive teammates turns the ball over in its own red zone, it seems a little harsh to lay that one at the feet of the defense, too.
Can't remember the exact quote, but "Stats are for losers." Like Daniel said, defensive rankings based on yards per game is a flawed stat since its doesn't take into account defensive penalties/ bad special teams. Lets say a team returns a punt to the 50 (from the 10) and gets a 30 yard PI penalty on their way to a TD (which isn't an uncommon scenario for the packers). On the surface, their defense looks outstanding, they only gave up 20 yards! I have seen about 75% of all packers snaps this season, so I know how flawed this "#1 Defense" ranking is.
Lets be honest- the packers have played 5 games (little less than half of their schedule) against offenses who would struggle to put up yards/points against an average college defense. (Browns (with derek anderson to make matters worse), Rams, TB (which they lost), Detroit twice (once with 3rd string QB and without CJ, other time with an injured Stafford and CJ).
Im not going to knock their rush defense because I think it is solid, but there pass defense isn't there yet. Every time they have faced a competent quarterback (if you watched the game on monday night, Flacco doesn't count. The only play you need to see was the across the body, across the field throw into the end zone on second down from the 1.) their defense has struggled. Favre, Palmer, Cutler (minus his 3-4 gift wrapped ints) all picked their secondary apart. Favre twice.
Everyone knows now that it is a good passing offense which wins games in the playoffs. Come playoff time they wont be facing Derek Anderson and Drew Stanton anymore... Say what you want, but two players in their secondary are major liabilities in coverage... Tramon Williams and Atari Bigby. Bigby is somehow still riding out his monster 3-game stretch in '07 where everyone still believes that he is a big time safety. With as many penalties as they commit on defense attempting to cover receivers, there is no way I would take them as my 4th quarter playoff defense.
what about minnesotas defense most sacks in the league we have pat deflecting a couple balls a game our cb and safetys are getting picks almost every game. o and about green bay vikings will beat them again even if u add al harrison they just need to stop all the penaltys against themselves
When you consider where the Packers defense was a year ago the turnaround is phenomenal. To even be talking about them as an elite unit after the last couple of years is jaw dropping. Capers deserves a lot of credit as do TT and McCarthy for their work. The rookies on the unit are amazing. I don't think there is a better group of LB's in the NFL.
All your points are valid, Brian, but put a 100% Polumalu back in there, and I believe that the Steelers would resume their #1 status. That said, while the Beagles (did I spell that right?) and the Pack are looking great, I'd take the Jets D this December. I don't have any stats or anecdotes to back that up, just the gut feeling of a long time fan of the game. I'm sure we're all in for a wonderful end to the 2009 season.
@Thom Ferris -
Um, no... You should really try and be correct if you comment on someone's spelling/grammar. The word is 'fallacious'.
fallacious - containing or based on a fallacy; "fallacious reasoning"; "an unsound argument"
Fallatious isn't a word... =D
I'm a Packers fan and I love the new alignment under Capers and the new additions in Raji and Matthews. But I have to agree with Jakob. I never understood how yards per game became the ultimate stat by which defenses are judged. Points per game has to be the yardstick. I mean, seriously, that seems like a no-brainer.
Theoretically a defense could only give up 7 yards in a game but also give up 7 touchdowns.
The best defense right now is the Bengals. It's simple.
Dave -- Who is Al Harrison? And why would the Packers add someone no one's ever heard of?
Offseason training is crucial...
Breaking down the slant route...
Why the rest of the NFL needs...
Chalkboard breakdown of the 9...
Breaking down my game notes from...
Dec 09, 2009
07:45 AM
Being a Pats fan, and watching the Packers on Monday night, I am shocked that Capers ever came under fire at all this season for the way his defense flies to the football.