The weekend of the underdogs

This past week, every football fan in America had a conversation that went a little something like this:

Football Fan A: “Hey, did you catch the Giants’ 44-7 blowout of the Raiders? I seriously think JaMarcus Russell was dead on the field.”

Football Fan B: “No, I didn’t, but I’ve noticed that there are an inordinate amount of bad teams this year. Seriously. Off the top of my head, I can name nine: Rams, Redskins, Chiefs, Raiders, Browns, Titans, Panthers, Bills and Bucs — and I didn’t even mention the Lions.”

APTodd Haley and the Chiefs are used to being heavy underdogs.

Football Fan A: “Yeah, I’ve noticed that, too. It seems like every other game is a 28-point embarrassment, where you’re wondering if Todd Haley or Raheem Morris will get fired on the sideline just to keep things interesting.”

Football Fan B: “Oakland plays Philly this week. That should be fun…”

Indeed, through five weeks of the NFL season, the better teams weren’t just winning; they were winning by alarming margins. In fact, the St. Louis Rams’ average margin of defeat in those five weeks was an astounding 22.4 points.

Las Vegas responded by understandably inflating the betting lines. The Ravens-Browns game in Week 3 had a two-touchdown spread in some places. The line for the 49ers-Rams game in Week 4 was in double digits, too. Week 5 saw four huge lines: Steelers (-10½) at Lions, Vikings (-10½) at Rams, Raiders at Giants (-16½) and Bucs at Eagles (-13½). Looking at these numbers, you’d think we were talking early season college football matchups. No, this was the NFL — a league that prides itself on its parity, above all else.

By the way, three of these four favorites covered the spread, with the Steelers giving up a garbage-time touchdown to the Lions to only win by eight.

I’m no betting expert, but this seemed to be a pretty significant trend.

That’s why, when the Eagles-Raiders line opened at 14, everyone backed Philly. It didn’t matter that Donovan McNabb and Co. were playing inside the Black Hole — a place that seems to have its fair share of weird games. On his twitter page, ESPN’s betting insider, Chad Millman, said, “Spoke to Jay Kornegay @ Hilton. For a road fave, this IS (a) high (spread). Jay still says bets will be 8-1 Phi.”

And why wouldn’t they be? The Raiders had hardly showed a pulse in the first five weeks, losing their previous three games by a 30.3-point average. And the Eagles were 3-1.

APDonovan McNabb and the Eagles surprisingly fell victim to the Raiders.

But it’s on weekends like this when we’re reminded why the house always wins. Predictably or unpredictably — depending on how you look at it — the Raiders beat the Eagles 13-9 despite turning the ball over twice.

Likewise, the Chiefs didn’t score a touchdown but still managed to upset the Redskins 14-6 on the road. The Bills, nearly 10-point underdogs going into the game, intercepted Mark Sanchez five times on their way to a 16-13 road victory over the Jets. Even the Rams, a double-digit ‘dog, almost got in on the action, narrowly losing 23-20 to the Jags on the road in overtime.

To recap, that’s three road teams — three very, very bad road teams — all of which covered the spread and two of which won outright.

After five weeks, seemingly everything in the NFL had become predictable. Of course, the Ravens would beat the Rams 34-3 in Week 3. Of course, the Texans would squash the Raiders 29-6 in Week 4. And of course, the Eagles would demoralize the Bucs, 33-14, in Week 5.

Week 6 was supposed to cement these trends, but all it did was leave us scratching our heads, wondering how in the world the Raiders beat the Eagles.

Scott Miller is a junior at the University of Iowa and a contributor to the National Football Post. Follow him on Twitter: @stmillr

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