Vegas agrees: Belichick was right

Everyone seems to have an opinion about Bill Belichick having the Patriots go for the win on fourth down Sunday night in Indianapolis. The consensus seems to be that Belichick was wrong. The numbers behind the decision tell a different story.

Based on league averages (with raw data obtained via advancednflstats.com), teams going for it on fourth-and-2 convert 60 percent of the time. If the Patriots convert, of course, they win the game. If they don’t (which, of course, they didn’t), Indianapolis gets the ball on the New England 30-yard line with 2 minutes left. From here, the average team scores only 53 percent of the time.

APThe numbers support Belichick's decision.

So if the Pats win 60 percent of the time by trying to go for the first down, the 40 percent they don’t convert they still win 47 percent of the time (boiled down to 18.8 percent of the time total). Add 18.8 to 60 and you’ll see the Patriots win that game 78.8 percent of the time by going for it.

Now, just for fun, let’s assume Belichick sent out the punt team, as so many Monday morning quarterbacks implored him to do. Assuming a 40-yard net punt, the Colts would have the ball on their own 30. From there, teams score 30 percent of the time, factoring in the game clock and number of timeouts remaining. This means New England would win 70 percent of the time. Their chances of winning go down 8.8 percent on a punt.

You’re probably saying, “Both Manning and Brady are better than league averages.” I agree. Let’s say, in fact, that they’re both 20 percent better than the average quarterback. Under these circumstances, assuming both offenses are 20 percent better than the league average, the Patriots actually convert on that fourth down 72 percent of the time. The other 28 percent of the time (the times they’re stuffed), the Pats’ defense stops the Colts’ offense from scoring from the 30-yard line 36 percent of the time (sorry if your head is spinning: .28 multiplied by .36 adds 10 percent to the Pats’ overall chances for a win). Even when accounting for the skills of Brady and Manning, the Patriots win 82 percent of the time going for it in that situation.

By the same token, if the Pats punted in this new scenario, the Colts (being 20 percent better than the league average) would score 36 percent of the time, meaning the Pats would win 64 percent of the time.

So assuming that New England’s and Indianapolis’ offenses are 20 percent better than the league average, the Pats win 18 percent more going for it on fourth down.

As usual, Belichick was right. The amazing thing is his call would have been right even if Brady (and by extension the Pats’ offense) and Manning (and by extension the Colts’ offense) were merely average. Considering the reality of the situation, not only was the call right, it wasn’t even close.

RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com, the largest sports betting website compliant with U.S. law. Follow him on Twitter: RJinVegas. 

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