Need help making the tough decisions? We’ve got you covered like Darrelle Revis, son. Joe Fortenbaugh
Before everyone buckles in and gets ready to check out this week’s starts and sits, be sure to CLICK HERE and check out the fantasy salary cap game the NFP is running along with FanDuel. You’ll have a chance to win a trip to Las Vegas in December to compete for $40,000 in prize money, which you can promptly blow at the craps table.
In addition, the second annual NFP Fantasy Expert’s League kicked off last night. Click here to check out the matchups.
And now, to business…
START ‘EM UP
Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins: The Buffalo Bills were one of the worst run-stopping defenses in the league last season and not enough has changed to make us think this year will be any different. The Bills allowed 25.2 fantasy points per week to opposing RBs in 2009 (third worst in NFL) and ranked 30th in the league in run defense (156.3 yds/gm), while allowing 19 rushing touchdowns in 16 games (fourth worst in league). Look for Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat to gash up this unit on Sunday.
Also consider: Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins
Malcom Floyd, WR, San Diego Chargers: What better time to start one of this year’s best value picks than Week 1 against a Kansas City defense that gave up an average of 21.7 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts in 2009? Floyd put together a solid preseason (7-98-1 in two games) and will be lining up opposite a Chiefs secondary that ranked 22nd in the NFL last year in passing defense (231.7 yds/gm). Look for quarterback Philip Rivers and the San Diego offense to light up the scoreboard with a vertical passing attack that led the NFL in yards per attempt in both 2008 and 2009 (8.8 YPA).
Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears: Yes, the offensive line is an issue, but Cutler has a home date with a Detroit Lions defense that gave up more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (22.5 pts/gm) in 2009 than any other unit in the NFL. As if that wasn’t enough, the Lions also ranked 32nd in pass defense (265.6 yds/gm) and 32nd in points allowed (30.9 pts/gm) last season. Detroit is going to be a better football team in 2010, but expect new offensive coordinator Mike Martz to come out throwing.
Also start: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
Cadillac Williams, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Williams was a middle to late round selection that saw his value drop due to a lengthy injury history and the fact that he plays on a bad offense. However, if you made a move to get the five-year veteran on your 2010 fantasy roster, now is the time to activate the former Auburn standout. Williams and the Bucs play host to a Cleveland run defense that gave up an average of 24.3 pts/gm to opposing running backs last season (fifth worst in NFL), 4.6 yards per carry (fourth worst in NFL) and 144.6 yards per game on the ground (fifth worst in NFL). Tampa’s passing offense may have some difficulty moving the sticks, so don’t be surprised if you see a heavy dose of the ground game on Sunday.
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers: This one seems obvious, but I’ve been getting plenty of emails from concerned Crabtree owners to warrant a mention in this article. Bottom line: Get him in your starting lineup. Seattle is loaded with issues on the defensive side of the football, which doesn’t bode well for a unit that gave up 24.5 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers in 2009 (fourth worst in NFL). Expect the 49ers to feature a ton of Frank Gore on Sunday, but this offense will take to the skies enough to provide Crabtree owners with a solid fantasy total.
Also start: San Francisco 49ers D/ST
Also consider: Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
New York Giants, D/ST: A solid front four with three big-time pass rushers (Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, Mathias Kiwanuka), an improved secondary (NY signed safety Antrel Rolle last winter), the addition of Keith Bullock at SAM linebacker and a new defensive coordinator (Perry Fewell) are all reasons why owners should be high on a New York defense that is loaded with upside. In addition, the Carolina Panthers ranked 7th in the NFL last season in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses (9.9 pts/gm). Remember, the Panthers beat the Giants last season in the final game ever played at the Meadowlands. The revenge factor is in effect here.
Also start: Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, New York Giants
ICONWinslow should find some success against a questionable Cleveland defense.
Kellen Winslow, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Winslow saw very few reps this preseason as the Buccaneers coaching staff didn’t want to risk an injury to the guy who could end up being their best receiving option in 2010. Keep in mind that the former Miami Hurricane finished 19th in the NFL in targets last season (127) and is the most experienced receiving threat on the Tampa Bay roster. In addition, he’s got a showdown with a Cleveland defense that gave up an average of 9.6 points per game to opposing tight ends last season (third worst in NFL). Expect second-year quarterback Josh Freeman to look his way often this season.
We also recommend you start…
Jabar Gaffney, WR, Denver Broncos: Somebody has to catch the football against a Jacksonville defense that ranked 27th against the pass last season (235.9 yds/gm).
Jerome Harrison, RB, Cleveland Browns: With rookie Montario Hardesty done for the year, look for Harrison to handle the bulk of the workload in Cleveland. Harrison takes on a Tampa defense that gave up 23.1 fantasy points per week to opposing running backs last season (seventh worst in NFL).
SIT ‘EM DOWN
Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants: The second-year receiver out of North Carolina isn’t an awful start this weekend, but he’s got a showdown with one of the more underrated cornerback tandems in Carolina’s Richard Marshall and Chris Gamble. Both Marshall and Gamble combined to hold opposing wide receivers to just 14.2 fantasy points per week in 2009 (second best in NFL) and helped the Panthers finish the year ranked fourth in the NFL in passing defense (191.0 yds/gm).
ICONPatrick Willis and the Niners will be coming after Forsett on Sunday.
Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle Seahawks: Yes, Forsett has some sleeper potential after being named the Seahawks’ Week 1 starter, but he’s got a rough matchup on Sunday against a Patrick Willis-led 49ers defense that ranked sixth against the run last season (97.0 yds/gm) while giving up just 17.8 fantasy points per week to opposing ball carriers (12th in NFL). Keep in mind that Leon Washington will cut into Forsett’s workload and also be advised that if the Niners get up early, Seattle may be forced to abandon the running game.
Also sit: Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens: We love Flacco’s upside entering 2010 especially after watching the progress he made from his rookie season to last year. But Monday night in New York against an aggressive Jets defense is a bad matchup for the Baltimore signal-caller. All-World cornerback Darrelle Revis is back and the new Meadowlands stadium is going to be rocking for the Jets’ home opener. Keep in mind that New York held opposing quarterbacks to an average of just 10.3 fantasy points per week last season. No defense was stingier.
Also consider: Anquan Boldin, WR, Baltimore Ravens (Revis Island)
Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons: Let me start by saying I don’t expect any of you to sit Turner this weekend. Hell, I’ve got him in one of my fantasy leagues and I’m pretty sure he’ll be in the starting lineup. However, the Burner is making an appearance in the “Sit” section because I want all of you to taper your expectations this weekend. The 28-year old running back heads to Pittsburgh on Sunday to take on a Steelers defense that gave up less fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2009 than any other unit in the league (13.2 pts/gm). Oh yeah, I almost forgot to mention that All Pro safety Troy Polamalu is healthy and back in the starting lineup.
Cincinnati Bengals, D/ST: The Bengals have one of the most underrated defensive units in the league led by stud cornerbacks Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph. But this Sunday in Foxborough they’ll face a Patriots’ offense led by Tom Brady and Randy Moss that has ranked in the top-five in total offense in each of the past three years. Not only that, but Bill Belichick’s bunch allowed opposing fantasy defenses to score just 6.1 points per week in 2009 (fourth best in NFL). We’ll recommend you start the Cincy defense most weeks this season, but we don’t feel too comfortable about their chances Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
Entire wide receiving unit, Tennessee Titans: The best preseason performance from this relatively unknown group came from the questionable Kenny Britt, who caught just seven passes for 54 yards with no touchdowns. While the Oakland Raiders have been an AFC doormat for several years running, they still feature a defense that is capable of making plays and limiting the opposition. Opposing wide receivers put up an average of only 18.6 fantasy points per week last season (12th in NFL) and don’t forget that CB Nnamdi Asomugha is one of the premier shutdown specialists in the game today. The Titans should win and Vince Young should play well, but we don’t envision a pass-happy offense leading the way.
We also recommend you sit…
ICONPortis isn't a terrible option, but he faces a stiff challenge against a tough Dallas run defense on Sunday night.
Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins: He’s playing behind a mediocre offensive line against a Dallas defense that ranked fourth against the run last season (90.5 yds/gm) while giving up just 15.8 fantasy points per week to opposing running backs (fifth best in NFL).
Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots: The Pro Bowl wide receiver admitted he’s not 100% and has a Sunday showdown with one of the best cornerback tandems (Johnathan Joseph, Leon Hall) in the game today.
John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks: The 49ers allowed opposing tight ends to score just 5.2 fantasy points per game last season (third best in NFL). In addition, don’t be surprised if the Seahawks ask Carlson to stay in and help block more often that usual on Sunday.
Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh
Bill:
Who do the Lions have at corner?
...
...
Okay. It's still a good idea to start your WRs and QBs that are playing them until proven otherwise.
To anyone who reads this:
Who would you rather start - Kyle Orton (vs Jets) or Chad Henne (vs Bills)?
To anyone who reads this:
Who would you rather start - Kyle Orton (vs Jaguars) or Chad Henne (vs Bills)?
kolman36 - I would start Orton against the Jags.. But its a toss up.. Dolphins will be running the wildcat, but i think BM scores one this game.
Would you guys start Barber vs Washington over Hightower vs Rams since Beanie is bruised up a bit?
kolman36 - I would start Orton against the Jags.. But its a toss up.. Dolphins will be running the wildcat, but i think BM scores one this game.
Would you guys start Barber vs Washington over Hightower vs Rams since Beanie is bruised up a bit?
Journeyman,
First of all, an outstanding pass rush makes up for weakness in the secondary. Who the Lions start at CB is irrelevant as long as they can generate pressure up front. Isn't the Ravens secondary equally suspect right now? Yep. And yet, I doubt this author would be advocating that owners start players against them with the same confidence he has against Detroit. And second, I already said that Detroit is not a matchup to AVOID, just that no one should be salivating over the thought of facing them in the same way everyone did last year. To suggest that a mediocre QB (Cutler) on a mediocre team (Bears) is going to post huge numbers against them is beyond overly optimistic.
I agree with you. However, the Lions do not, as yet, have a pass rush that anyone would call "outstanding". Vanden Bosch, Suh and Williams are fairly big names, but the group has yet to prove in the regular season that they can generate a pass rush. And until the Lions have some decent corners... since even the Vikings' front four wouldn't turn the CBs they have right now into decent cover men... your optimism is misplaced.
Also, let's be serious here. A Mike Martz-coached offense is going to throw the ball a ton. I'm a Packers fan, so I'm no Jay Cutler apologist, but there's a heck of a lot of potential there for Martz to develop. And against a weak secondary, there's no reason not to. Good pass-rush can cover up a lot of deficiencies in the secondary, but the only real player the Lions have back there is Louis Delmas. And with Chicago's speedy receivers, a QB that can throw deep and a system that'll let him, what's not to like if you have the Bears' receivers or QB in your fantasy lineup? Even if Cutler's on his back half the game, he'll complete a lot of throws the rest of the time.
I need some help. Jahvid Best, Clinton Portis or Malcom Floyd in my flex spot???
I need some help. Jahvid Best, Clinton Portis or Malcom Floyd in my flex spot???
Journeyman,
The whole point of my complaint was that particular portion of the article implies that Detroit is essentially as bad as it was last year which is awfully far from the truth. Given what we saw out of Detroit's front four in the preseason (which was impressive), it is reasonable to assume that they are significantly improved, and consequently so is the rest of the defense to a lesser degree. Yes, they will give up points and yards just like every other defense that is around the NFL average, but again, this isn't a unit that you should be excited to start a less than stellar QB against. Besides, your point about Chicago's deep threats ignores their biggest problem on offense, a line that will have a hard time holding up long enough to give Cutler the time he'd need to get the ball that far down field. If Detroit's defense has to prove itself, then so does Chicago's offense which has looked terrible leading up to the season. And for the last time, I'm not saying it's a BAD matchup or that Cutler won't have a good game, simply that expecting the 2009 Lions to take the field and give up another 275 yards and 4 TDs is unrealistic and will lead to disappointment.
Journeyman,
The other negative about this game for Cutler as a fantasy player is that the vast majority of teams take several weeks to get the passing games on track and clicking. So having a new OC with a new system, a less than cerebral QB, and WRs that are not great could very easily lead to early struggles with getting on the same page. The early weeks are a lot more about running and defense for most teams. Just another facet to consider...
I guess I'd have to refer you to the Lions' 2008 preseason, when they looked pretty darned impressive as well. The difference with the Bears' receivers and QB is that they've had a season together to develop chemistry and get to know each others' tendencies. I don't think they have nearly as much that needs to be proven.
And I'm not saying that the Lions have a bad pass rush. But I think you're overrating the Lions' pass rush and overvaluing how much time it'll give to the defense. And even if you're right and the Bears have to max protect on every down, a good quarterback throwing to decent WRs will beat their corners on the edge every time. I mean, in the Martz system, it's hard not to rack up superior numbers. Jon Kitna and the San Francisco QB collection were both playing with crap lines and crap receivers in '07 and '08, and that didn't stop them from throwing for a mile apiece. And if the Bears can control the Lions' front four with their line, or by keeping a back in to chip, there will be easy pickings downfield for Cutler.
Since we seem to be getting a good discussion going, how about a little friendly wager? The stakes: bragging rights until next Sunday. The bet: I'll bet you that Cutler will throw for more than some predetermined number (say, 275 yards and a couple of TDs). If he does that or better, I win. If the Lions smash him two feet into the Soldier Field turf and his statistics suffer, you shall be victorious. Sound fair?
Journeyman,
The 2008 Lions didn't look very impressive, they simply had a good preseason record, a very big difference. And whether Cutler and his receivers have a year together means nothing since it's an entirely new system, one that relies far more on precision and timing (not good for week 1). So yes, Chicago's offense has just as much to prove still and you are overrating it as much as you think I am overestimating Detroit's defense. Since I doubt that I would ever get a check in the mail, "bragging rights" will have to do. LOL So you want the over-unders to be 275 yards, 3 TDs & 1 INT? 275 and 2 TDs isn't exactly fantasy dominance against what you think it still a bottom 5 defense.
Journeyman,
Regardless of what happens, my point was not to predict the actual outcome of the game, merely to point out that the basis for the recommendation was highly flawed and essentially lazy by simply falling back on what happened last year. I already granted several times that it's not impossible for Cutler to have a really good game. I do predict, though, that Detroit will not just cover but win outright. There are quite a few games this week that are really attractive upset picks, even St. Louis deserves a look.
Journeyman,
More correctly, the over-unders I suggested should be 275, 2.5 and 1.5. Best two out of three wins. If those are acceptable, I'll take under on yards and TDs and over for the INTs.
Bill: Not necessarily, just some opening numbers to bargain with. ;)
I would argue that the chemistry they've developed can make up for some of the time it takes to get the new system installed. Precision and timing are a lot easier to come by when you aren't working with all new receivers as well as a new system.
I agree with the point that recycling the numbers from last year won't necessarily be accurate, but what can you do? Obviously there aren't regular-season stats to work with, preseason stats are largely meaningless and what you see in training camp is pretty subjective. Besides, and now I know I'm getting into minutiae here, but it's not just what Joe said, it's what Mike Martz thinks. Martz is looking at that secondary and licking his proverbial chops. He'll likely come out throwing like crazy, and if he does, Cutler's numbers should correspondingly rise.
It's not impossible for Detroit to win this one. Even the esteemed Michael Lombardi said that the offense "has no ceiling" when it comes to the Lions, pretty strong words for a 2-14 team in '09. I bet Detroit fans are thinking a great deal about Miami's return from the gutter of the NFL in 2007 to a division championship in '08...
Those numbers sound good to me. May the best comment thread prognosticator win!
I need some help. Jahvid Best, Clinton Portis or Malcom Floyd in my flex spot???
Journeyman,
My biggest problem with recommendation was simply that it was not tempered with even some of the legitimate concerns that I mentioned earlier. One doesn't need any actual stats to draw inferences from offseason moves and preseason performances (for what they're worth). If all this writer has to offer is 2009 stats, then what's the point? I already know what happened last year, so I'd rather hear what someone reasonably thinks might happen this year, even though there is little to go on at this point. That's the whole challenge of fantasy football, predicting not just what has a good chance of happening, but what might happen that not everyone is on to yet. By the time something has become obvious, I no longer need an "expert" to make the case for it. Best of luck in gambling on Cutler! LOL
Malcom Floyd
Frank, go with Malcolm Floyd. No 1 receiver in what should still be a pass happy offense, with an elite QB. Best could have a big day as well, but Floyd is the best option.
Journeyman,
Congrats on your win. I would like to point out, though, that Detroit's defense looked VASTLY improved over last year, and I wish we could have seen how the game would have played out if Stafford had been able to continue. I was glad to see Forte so involved in the passing game since he is an excellent receiver and can be used like Faulk was, which is why I went after him in most of my leagues. Certainly Cutler and his WRs will get better, but we'll see what happens with his turnovers when the opposing offenses puts even more pressure on him to score. I just know I would hate to own him and have to deal with his yearly rollercoaster ride.
Bill: Sorry for the delay, these two days have been crazy on the work front.
Definitely didn't expect Cutler's yards to come the way they did, largely through Matt Forte, but I'm glad they did. If the Bears start using a three-back set with Taylor and Forte going out on swing routes, there could be some danger in these guys.
They did give up the yards, but I was really impressed by the goal-line stand. How many defenses take the field with the ball on the one-inch line and hold off the opponent? Their line looked very solid from what I saw.
All I have in the way of Bears' offenders is Johnny Knox, and I'm certainly hoping he gets more looks. Could never stand to own Cutler, though, for exactly that reason.
Good luck in your leagues! (I got whomped in mine this weekend when my starting WRs combined for four points and my D had minus-seven.)
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Sep 10, 2010
01:33 PM
I realize that we're only talking about week 1 here, but I really get tired of fantasy analysts using last year's stats in order to justify who to draft or start/sit this year. The assumption that Detroit is going to be as awful as it was last year is completely ridiculous, and anyone that has followed the offseason and preseason games (as a fantasy writer should) can see that the unit will be greatly improved (to maybe an average NFL defense). Of course it didn't become the Steel Curtain over night, but the pass rush is going to give teams with a weak line (like the Bears) fits and take a ton of pressure off the unproven secondary. That is not to say I think they are a BAD matchup to play against in a given week, just that anyone suggesting that are an incredibly tasty opponent in 2010 has been in a coma for the last 8 months.