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Week 10 early line moves

Five games to keep an eye on heading into Sunday. Joe Fortenbaugh

November 06, 2012
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We didn’t write about this game because the line has stayed relatively flat at -12.5, but keep a close eye on the Pittsburgh Steelers Monday night when Mike Tomlin’s crew plays host to the Kansas City Chiefs. Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley was sent packing from his head coaching gig with the Chiefs last December, which ended a tumultuous relationship between he and general manager Scott Pioli.

Haley could be looking to extract a little personal revenge in this one.

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Detroit Lions (4-4, 2-3 road) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4, 4-1 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Minnesota -3
Current: Detroit -2.5

Analysis: Wide receiver Percy Harvin—who has accounted for 37.5% of the Vikings passing yards to date—suffered a sprained ankle in three places during Sunday’s loss at Seattle and will be nowhere near 100% for Week 10…if he plays at all. The Vikings are 2-6-1 ATS over their last nine games overall while the Lions are starting to catch fire, having covered the number in four straight contests. This is the biggest line move of the week and for good reason. Without Harvin, the Vikings will have to lean on running back Adrian Peterson, who will be tasked with moving the sticks against one of the league’s nastiest front fours.

Atlanta Falcons (8-0, 4-0 road) at New Orleans Saints (3-5, 2-2 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Atlanta -1.5
Current: Atlanta -2.5

Drew BreesDrew Brees and the Saints will be home dogs this Sunday for the first time since 2008.

Analysis: You’ll have to go back to December 28, 2008 to find the last time that the Saints were underdogs in their own building. And while New Orleans has covered the spread in four of their last five games, take note that Atlanta is 4-0 ATS on the road this season and 19-7-1 ATS over their last 27 games against teams with a losing record. The New Orleans defense may have looked good against Philadelphia on Monday night, but everybody is looking solid against Michael Vick and the Birds this season.

New York Giants (6-3, 3-1 road) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-5, 1-3 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: New York -6
Current: New York -4

Analysis: NFL teams are currently 6-18 against the spread the week before going on the bye. And guess who happens to be headed for vacation in Week 11? That’s right, the New York Giants. However, it won’t be easy throwing down cash on a Cincinnati team that has lost four straight games while also failing to cover the number each time. Take note that the Giants are 4-1 ATS over their last five games following a straight-up loss while the Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS over their last seven contests against teams with a winning record.

San Diego Chargers (4-4, 2-2 road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4, 2-2 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Tampa Bay -2.5
Current: Tampa Bay -3

Analysis: This is a brutal spot for the Chargers, who have to travel all the way across the country to play a non-conference opponent at 1:00pm eastern the week before a road showdown with division-rival Denver. San Diego was in a similar spot earlier this season when the Bolts had to travel to New Orleans a week before a home showdown with Peyton Manning. For those of you who are interested, San Diego lost to the Saints, 31-24, while failing to cover the spread. Take note that the Chargers are 1-4 ATS over their last five November games while Tampa Bay is 14-6 ATS over their last 20 November games.

Denver Broncos (5-3, 2-2 road) at Carolina Panthers (2-6, 1-3 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Denver -5.5
Current: Denver -3.5

Analysis: Back-to-back road games in the eastern time zone one week before a divisional showdown with the San Diego Chargers is the reason why you’re seeing the early money coming in on Carolina. Peyton Manning and the Broncos have been rock solid for bettors as of late, covering four of their last five point spreads. But this looks to be a situational play for the sharps, who are backing a very live home dog in this matchup.

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