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Week 11 Las Vegas market report

9-0 Kansas City travels to 8-1 Denver for a battle of AFC heavyweights. Joe Fortenbaugh

November 13, 2013
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We used to hear about this stat all the time and I have a feeling that, despite its low profile as of Wednesday evening, it will make an appearance with the national media in the coming days.

During his career as an NFL head coach, Andy Reid is 13-1 coming off the bye week.

Interestingly enough, Reid faced then-Colts quarterback Peyton Manning off the bye in 2010 when he was with the Philadelphia Eagles. The Birds won that game 26-24, as Manning threw just one touchdown pass and two interceptions.

Week 11 bye: Dallas, St. Louis

AFTER 10 WEEKS

Home teams: 76-68-3 (.527)
Favorites: 76-68-3 (.527)
Home dogs: 28-28 (.500)
Home favorites: 48-40-3 (.545)
Overs: 81-65 (.554)

CLICK HERE to check out all of the current Week 11 lines.

Note: All lines courtesy of the LVH sports book in Las Vegas.

Green Bay Packers (5-4, 2-2 road) at New York Giants (3-6, 2-2 home)

When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: New York -6.5
Current: New York -5

Analysis: The Giants are currently riding one of the ugliest win streaks in recent memory, with victories over 2-7 Minnesota, 5-5 Philadelphia and 3-6 Oakland. Take Sunday’s win over the Raiders as an example: New York committed three turnovers which led to 17 Oakland points, amassed just 251 total yards of offense and failed to cover the seven-point spread despite limiting the Silver & Black to only 213 total yards of offense. The Giants received a boost thanks to the return of running back Andre Brown, but the early money felt that laying 6.5 points with a mistake-prone football club was just too many. Note that Scott Tolzien will start at quarterback for Green Bay on Sunday, who should benefit from a week of work with the starting unit.

Trends: Green Bay is 11-3 ATS over their last 14 games following a straight-up loss while New York is 1-5 ATS over their last six games following an ATS loss.

Atlanta Falcons (2-7, 0-4 road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8, 1-4 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: PK
Current: Atlanta -1.5

Matt RyanICONRyan and the Falcons have generated just 33 total points over their last three games.

Analysis: Only the Buccaneers could notch their first win of the season and then watch as the line moves against them for an upcoming game against a reeling 2-7 squad. One theory as to why this line shifted towards Atlanta is because now that Tampa Bay has erased the possibility of an 0-16 campaign, the team may get complacent and revert back to their losing ways for the remainder of the year. But how do you ride a Falcons team that is 0-4 both straight-up and ATS on the road this season, has scored just 33 points over their last three outings and is 1-6 ATS over their last seven games overall? This game has “No thanks” written all over it.

Trends: The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS over the last six meetings between these two franchises.

Indianapolis Colts (6-3, 3-1 road) at Tennessee Titans (4-5, 2-3 home)

When: Thursday, 8:30pm ET
Open: Indianapolis -2.5
Current: Indianapolis -3 (+100)

Analysis: Two squads coming off embarrassing losses means two teams entering a bounce-back situation. The problem is, only one team can escape Thursday night’s AFC South clash with a victory. The Colts are 10-1 ATS over their last 11 games following a loss while the Titans are just 1-3-1 ATS over their last five home games. Tennessee will make the switch at quarterback from Jake Locker (foot) to Ryan Fitzpatrick and will attempt to eclipse the 20-point barrier for just the third time over their last six games. Take note that Tennessee has dropped four of their last five contests and didn’t look particularly sharp during a November 3 victory at St. Louis (two turnovers, 3 for 7 on third down). We’re leaning to Indianapolis here.

Trends: Indianapolis is 9-2 ATS over their last 11 games against teams with a losing record while Tennessee is 2-8-1 ATS over their last 11 games against AFC South opposition.

Baltimore Ravens (4-5, 1-4 road) at Chicago Bears (5-4, 3-2 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Chicago -2.5
Current: Chicago -3

Analysis: Want to know why this line has moved from Chicago -2.5 to the key number of -3? Simple:

Joe Flacco on the road prior to 2013: 21-19, 59.7% completion percentage, 48 TDs, 32 INTs, QB rating of 80.9.

Joe Flacco on the road in 2013: 1-4, 57.5% completion percentage, 7 TDs, 9 INTs, QB rating of 71.0

Trends: Baltimore is 1-4 ATS over their last four road games while Chicago is 1-9-1 ATS over their last 11 home games.

San Francisco 49ers (6-3, 3-1 road) at New Orleans Saints (7-2, 5-0 home)

When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: New Orleans -2.5
Current: New Orleans -3

Drew BreesBrees and the Saints are a perfect 5-0 ATS at home this season.

Analysis: Integral San Francisco components Vernon Davis (TE) and Eric Reid (S) have both been cleared for non-contact participation following head injuries sustained in last Sunday’s loss to Carolina. That’s good news for the 49ers, who will need all hands on deck for a Sunday showdown at the VooDoo dome with a Saints team that is 21-5 ATS over their last 26 home games. Colin Kaepernick’s dismal performance in Week 10 (11/22, 91 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) coupled with Drew Brees’ dismantling of the Dallas Cowboys (34/41, 392 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) provides an obvious reason for the line move in New Orleans’ direction.

Trends: San Francisco is 10-4 ATS over their last 14 games following a straight-up loss while New Orleans is 20-8 ATS over their last 28 games against teams with a winning record.

Kansas City Chiefs (9-0, 4-0 road) at Denver Broncos (8-1, 5-0 home)

When: Sunday, 8:30pm ET
Open: Denver -8.5
Current: Denver -8

Analysis: A move from -8.5 to -8 doesn’t carry a whole lot of significance, but there’s no way we could pass up an opportunity to talk about the biggest matchup on the Week 11 board. Let’s start with the obvious, which is the fact that Denver will be a very popular six-point teaser play this Sunday. Let’s also mention a stat that is going to generate a lot of buzz as we approach the weekend, which is the 13-1 lifetime mark Chiefs coach Andy Reid has posted coming off a bye week. Also worth noting is the fact that the underdog in this series has covered the number in six of the last seven meetings. We’re leaning to Kansas City and the league’s top-ranked defense here, but have yet to take that opinion to the window.

Trends: Kansas City is 4-0 ATS over their last four road games while Denver is 9-4-1 ATS over their last 14 games overall.

Arizona Cardinals (5-4, 1-3 road) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8, 0-4 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Arizona -6.5
Current: Arizona -7 (-120)

Analysis: Credit the Jaguars for upsetting the Titans and putting an end to all of that 0-16 talk, but there’s still no way we’re going to invest any money in this franchise. The Jags are 0-4 ATS at home this season, 8-19-1 ATS over their last 28 games against teams with a winning record and 6-20-1 ATS over their last 27 games after allowing more than 350 total yards of offense in their previous outing. So does this mean we’re willing to back Arizona on Sunday? No, no it does not. Laying a touchdown on the road against a non-conference opponent with a team that is 1-3 away from home this season is risky business, especially when that team’s quarterback turns the ball over at an alarming rate.

Trends: Arizona is 2-6 ATS over their last eight games following a straight-up win while Jacksonville is 2-8 ATS over their last ten games overall.

THE REST

New York Jets (5-4, 1-3 road) at Buffalo Bills (3-7, 2-3 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Buffalo -1
Current: Buffalo -1

Detroit Lions (6-3, 3-2 road) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6, 2-2 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Detroit -2.5
Current: Detroit -2.5

Washington Redskins (3-6, 1-4 road) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5, 0-4 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Philadelphia -3.5
Current: Philadelphia -3.5

Cleveland Browns (4-5, 1-3 road) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4, 4-0 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Cincinnati -6
Current: Cincinnati -6

Oakland Raiders (3-6, 0-4 road) at Houston Texans (2-7, 1-3 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Houston -7
Current: Houston -7 (-120)

San Diego Chargers (4-5, 2-3 road) at Miami Dolphins (4-5, 2-2 home)

When: Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Open: San Diego -1
Current: San Diego -1.5

Minnesota Vikings (2-7, 0-4 road) at Seattle Seahawks (9-1, 4-0 home)

When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: Seattle -13
Current: Seattle -12.5

New England Patriots (7-2, 2-2 road) at Carolina Panthers (6-3, 3-1 home)

When: Monday, 8:30pm ET
Open: Carolina -2.5
Current: Carolina -2.5 (-120)

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

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