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Week 11 college football betting primer

Five plays we’re taking to the counter for this Saturday’s slate of action. Joe Fortenbaugh

November 06, 2013
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Indulge me for a moment as I share with you the story of a boyfriend who tried to do something nice for his girlfriend and royally jammed himself up in the process.

The girlfriend in this story happens to be a die-hard Buffalo Sabres fan, but for the first time in years, won’t be traveling back to New York to catch a game. So the ever-loving boyfriend decides that it would be a swell idea to surprise his girlfriend for her birthday with a weekend trip to Los Angeles and rinkside seats to watch the Sabres play the Kings on Thursday, November 7.

The boyfriend in this story earns massive points for this maneuver.

The boyfriend in this story also happens to love betting on the Oregon Ducks and Baylor Bears (combined 13-1 ATS on the season!), both of which happen to play their biggest games of the season on Thursday, November 7.

The boyfriend in this story was too stupid to look ahead at the college football schedule to recognize this conflict of interest, but is still very excited to make his girlfriend happy.

The boyfriend in this story sounds like a pretty good dude, doesn't he?

On a completely unrelated note, Staples Center has denied my request to play the Oregon-Stanford game on the jumbotron during Thursday night's Sabres-Kings matchup.

Last week: 3-2

Season: 35-22-1 (.614)

CLICK HERE to check out all of the current lines.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-2, 1-1 road) at Michigan Wolverines (6-2, 5-0 home)

When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Michigan -6.5
Current: Michigan -6.5 (Wynn)

Nebraska in 2013: 4-4 ATS, 4-4 to the OVER
Michigan in 2013: 4-4 ATS, 5-3 to the OVER

Brady HokeGovernor Chris Christie is a perfect 19-0 at the Big House since arriving in Michigan in 2011.

Analysis: This is a revenge spot for the Wolverines, who fell 23-9 at Nebraska last October. Michigan is 6-1 ATS over their last seven home games and is in a bounce back spot this week following last Saturday’s 29-6 defeat at Michigan State, which is a situation (see trends below) that has worked out well for Brady Hoke’s team in recent years. Speaking of Hoke, take note that the Chris Christie look-alike is a perfect 19-0 at the Big House since arriving at Michigan in 2011. Nebraska is 2-9-1 ATS over their last 12 road games and could struggle to get up for this one following last Saturday’s Hail Mary fluke win over Northwestern.

Notable Trends: Nebraska is 0-8-1 ATS over their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record while Michigan is 4-0 ATS over their last four games following a straight-up loss.

Pick: Michigan (-6.5)

Hawaii Warriors (0-8, 0-4 road) at Navy Midshipmen (4-4, 3-0 home)

When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Navy -17
Current: Navy -17

Hawaii in 2013: 4-4 ATS, 5-3 to the OVER
Navy in 2013: 6-2 ATS, 5-3 to the UNDER

Analysis: The Midshipmen have covered the number in four of their last five games, are two wins from bowl eligibility and won’t find a better matchup on the schedule than this Saturday’s showdown with 0-8 Hawaii. The Warriors are not only winless on the season, but spent the week on the mainland following last Saturday’s 47-10 loss at Utah State, which featured a 12-hour delay in Los Angeles last Friday due to the LAX shooting. Those aren’t the type of distractions a bad football team needs in the week leading up to a showdown with a triple-option offense. Hawaii is 1-6 ATS over their last seven games after surrendering more than 40 points in the previous contest while Navy is 16-5 ATS over their last 21 games against the Mountain West Conference.

Notable Trends: Hawaii is 5-12 ATS over their last 17 games following a straight-up loss while Navy is 5-1 ATS over their last six games following a straight-up loss.

Pick: Navy (-17)

Virginia Tech Hokies (6-3, 2-1 road) at #11 Miami Hurricanes (7-1, 5-0 home)

When: Saturday, 7:00pm ET
Open: Miami -6
Current: Miami -7 (Wynn)

Virginia Tech in 2013: 3-5-1 ATS, 6-2-1 to the UNDER
Miami in 2013: 4-4 ATS, 5-3 to the UNDER

Al GoldenUS PRESSWIREAl Golden's Hurricanes are primed for a big-time letdown on Saturday.

Analysis: This is a big-time letdown spot for the Hurricanes, who fell 41-14 at Florida State last Saturday night in their biggest game of the season. To make matters worse, starting running back Duke Johnson was lost for the year (ankle) during the FSU game, taking his 920 rushing yards and six touchdowns with him to the sidelines. Not only should Miami come out flat for this one, but Virginia Tech is out for revenge following last season’s 30-12 loss at Miami. Note that the Hokies are 9-3 ATS over their last 12 games against the ‘Canes and 5-1 ATS over their last six trips to Miami.

Notable Trends: The underdog is 4-1 ATS over the last five meetings between these two schools.

Pick: Virginia Tech (+7)

Texas Longhorns (6-2, 2-1 road) at West Virginia Mountaineers (4-5, 3-1 home)

When: Saturday, 7:00pm ET
Open: Texas -8
Current: Texas -6.5

Texas in 2013: 4-4 ATS, 4-4 to the OVER
West Virginia in 2013: 3-6 ATS, 6-3 to the UNDER

Analysis: Mack Brown took a lot of crap for the Longhorns’ 1-2 start, but all he’s done since is rattle off five straight victories by an average of 14.4 points per game with 30 or more points scored in each contest. Texas looks to keep it rolling Saturday in a revenge spot against a West Virginia team that won this newfound rivalry game last season in Austin, 48-45. Since upsetting Oklahoma State on September 28, West Virginia has dropped three of four and has been outscored during that stretch 172-101. The Mountaineers are just 3-7 ATS over their last ten home games and 3-8 ATS over their last 11 games following an against the spread win.

Notable Trends: West Virginia is 4-14 ATS over their last 18 home games against teams with a winning road record.

Pick: Texas (-6.5)

#13 LSU Tigers (7-2, 2-2 road) at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-0 home)

When: Saturday, 8:00pm ET
Open: Alabama -9
Current: Alabama -12

LSU in 2013: 4-4-1 ATS, 7-2 to the OVER
Alabama in 2013: 5-3 ATS, 4-3-1 to the OVER

Analysis: In recent years, a spread this big for this rivalry would warrant an automatic bet on the underdog. And while some feel that this is still the case, we’re going to lay the lumber with the undefeated Crimson Tide. Sure, Tigers quarterback Zach Mettenberger and the LSU offense are more explosive than we’ve seen in recent memory (40.2 pts/gm), but this defense is far more suspect than what we’ve grown accustomed to witnessing from a Les Miles-coached football team. Meanwhile, ‘Bama has the same stalwart defense of years past (9.75 pts/gm surrendered in ’13) and has covered the number in four of their last five matchups. The LSU offense is going to have trouble finding the end zone in this hostile environment, while A.J. McCarron and the Tide should have an easier time than usual moving the rock down the field against LSU. Roll Tide.

Notable Trends: LSU is 2-6-1 ATS over their last nine games following a straight-up win while Alabama is 4-1 ATS over their last five games following a straight-up win.

Pick: Alabama (-12)

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

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