Week 12 Recap: What we saw

The weekly recaps are written by former Stanford kicker Derek Belch.

Like last year, every week this column will recap the week’s performances (good and bad), as well as analyze things that I think you should be made aware of moving forward. I’ve also added a new section this year, entitled “A Closer Look”, to point out a few things that go beyond the statistics. So focus up, make sure your boss isn’t looking over your shoulder, and enjoy.

Week 12 is nearly in the books, and once again there were some monster performances from both new faces and old. There were also some huge bagels from some guys you were probably counting on. Without further adieu, your week 12 recap:

The Good

Peyton Hillis: One thing we try to do every week in this column is vary the guys we put in each category, to keep it fresh, ya know? Despite the fact that Hillis has been on this list several times this year, we just can’t leave him out after a performance like yesterday, when he rushed 26 times for 131 yards and three touchdowns and caught six passes for 63 yards against the Carolina Panthers. All three of Hillis’ touchdowns actually came in the first half, which included touchdown runs of nine, five, and six yards. And once again, Hillis’ six catches proved that he is just as much a factor in the passing game as he is as a runner. Hillis was even used to throw a pass today, missing a wide open Ben Watson in the back of the endzone. Hillis is a guy that can do it all, and should continue to put up big numbers for you so long as he stays healthy.

Tom Brady: Another familiar face on this list, Brady went into the locker room at halftime on Thanksgiving trailing Detroit 17-10, sans a touchdown pass and barely over 100 yards passing. The next 30 minutes of football were truly special for Brady owners, as Tommy tossed touchdown passes of 5, 79, 22, and 16 yards. When it was time for turkey, Brady had completed 21 of 27 passes for 341 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions, good for a perfect passer rating of 158.3. In his last four games, Brady has thrown 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. A matchup with the Jets looms next week, and Brady threw two touchdowns and two interceptions the last time he faced New York. But this game is at home, where Brady hasn’t lost since 2006. And, last time he faced a top defensive unit (Pittsburgh), he threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns.

Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles: For Bowe, Sunday was another ho-hum effort: 13 catches, 170 yards, and three touchdowns in a huge road win for the Chiefs. Bowe upped his touchdown streak to seven games, and Sunday marked his league-leading twelfth, thirteenth, and fourteenth scores. With Denver (whom Bowe torched for 186 yards and two scores three weeks ago), San Diego, St. Louis, Tennessee, and Oakland left on the schedule, there’s no reason to believe Bowe is going to slow down any time soon… Sunday was also a big day for Bowe’s teammate Charles, who finally received more carries than Thomas Jones in Week 12 and took full advantage, carrying 22 times for 173 yards and a touchdown. It was especially impressive considering that the strength of the Seattle defense is in the run game, and they have been especially at home. Going forward, Charles will benefit from the same easy schedule that Dwayne Bowe will. Of course, Charles’ production is entirely dependent on the number of carries he receives. But then again, wasn’t it about this time last season that Charles absolutely blew up??? If the Chiefs want to make a playoff run, they’d be smart to keep Jones’ legs fresh and let the young guy run a little.

Sam Bradford: It was a Sunday of firsts for Bradford: first career road win, first road win of the 2010 season for the Rams, first 300 yard passing game, and first game with three touchdowns. If it wasn’t apparent already, Bradford is the real deal. He’s already thrown 17 touchdowns this season, to only 9 interceptions (three of those were in the first game), and has also lost only three fumbles. Not bad for a rookie, especially considering that Bradford lost both his top receivers early in the season (Mark Clayton and Donnie Avery).

Mike Goodson: The third-string Panthers back put together another solid outing Sunday, totaling 136 yards and a touchdown. Despite Jonathan Stewart’s return from a concussion, Goodson earned the start, carrying 14 times for 55 yards and a score and caught 8 passes for 81 yards against a Browns defense that has varied in its friendliness to opposing running backs this season. Goodson has now totaled 100 yards or more in three straight games, and gets Seattle and Arizona in two of his next three games. Stewart did carry 12 times for 93 yards today, which isn’t exactly encouraging for Goodson owners, but look on the bright side; maybe the Panthers’ run-blocking is finally starting to come together, and maybe Goodson will serve as the second-half running force that DeAngelo Williams has been in recent seasons. It’s certainly possible.

The Bad

Steve Johnson: By now you’ve certainly seen it; with just over 10 minutes to play in overtime, Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a 45 yard bomb into the left corner of the endzone that seemed to be a sure end to a huge Bills upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Then the unthinkable happened to the player on the receiving end of that pass, as Johnson dropped the pass that literally could not have been any easier of a catch. The drop killed Bills fans and fantasy owners everywhere, and could have made for a spectacular day against the vaunted Pittsburgh defense. It was actually Johnson’s fifth drop of the day, part of a 7 catch, 68 yard effort that ultimately didn’t do much towards a fantasy victory for his owners.

Thomas Jones: A week after averaging nearly 5 yards per carry and scoring two touchdowns against Arizona, Jones posted a sub-par day, carrying 20 times for only 68 yards in Kansas City’s blowout victory in Seattle. We’ve mentioned this before, but it’s certainly worth noting again given how consistent it’s been this season: Jones has only posted one solid fantasy game on the road this season, while posting three at home. Luckily, Jones faces the Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium next weekend in a game that I expect Kansas City to dominate.

Darren McFadden: While McFadden has been surprisingly consistent this year, he’s now posted two terrible games in a row, the second coming yesterday at home against a Miami defense that hasn’t exactly been invincible against the run this season. McFadden, however, managed only two rushing yards on 8 carries. While he also caught seven passes for 63 yards, it likely wasn’t enough to help McFadden owners to victory. Two stinkers in a row from McFadden will certainly have a lot of owners very worried that he’s back to his old ways, but let’s not jump to conclusions too quickly. McFadden faced the Steelers last week, and yesterday the Raiders only rushed 12 times for 16 yards as a team. With Jacksonville, Denver, Indianapolis, and Kansas City left on the schedule, there are certainly opportunities for McFadden to get back on track.

Roddy White: Mr. Consistent finally delivered a bad game Sunday, catching only five passes for 49 yards against the Green Bay Packers. While White was only targeted seven times Sunday, that number actually led all Falcon receivers. Matt Ryan completed 24 of 28 passes for only 197 yards and one touchdown, as the Packers’ defensive scheme took away a lot of downfield looks. In response, the Falcons ran the ball and played a ball control, dink-and-dunk offense, which meant fewer opportunities for White. White faces Tampa next week, then Carolina, Seattle, and New Orleans during the fantasy playoffs. Yum.

Ben Roethlisberger: 246 yards and no touchdowns (passing or rushing) from a quarterback who was coming off back-to-back three touchdown games. And against the Bills, no less. That’s a killer. Every. Single. Time.

Chris Johnson: Still trying to figure out exactly what happened here. Johnson received only 7 carries, and turned them into only five yards. He also caught two passes for only 2 yards, on only three targets. One would think that the gameplan with Rusty Smith under center would call for a heavy dose of Johnson, but apparently not. This is definitely not what Johnson owners needed as they’re trying to make a playoff push.

Beyond the Numbers

Fred Jackson had another big game Sunday, largely in part because of a third quarter, 65 yard catch and run for a touchdown on an underneath screen that gave Buffalo the momentum to mount a fourth quarter comeback. But Jackson’s day wasn’t big solely because of that one play. He carried 12 times for 59 yards (nearly a 5.0 yards per carry average) and caught four other passes for 39 yards against a Steelers defense that is known for completely shutting down opposing running backs. Jackson is a patient, consistent, grinding-type runner who will find a way to get yards no matter who he’s playing. And, as long as CJ Spiller remains out, Jackson will continue to shine in a Buffalo offense that has actually been pretty dynamic this season… Another week, another big day for Arian Foster, who totaled 218 yards Sunday – 143 rushing on 30 carries and 75 receiving on 9 catches. Foster’s stats clearly speak for themselves, but if you’ve watched Houston play this season, you know that he has become what Andre Johnson used to be to this offense. As in, they are leaning on him very heavily, and it’s no mystery as to who’s getting the football on a large percentage of Houston’s offensive plays, whether the Texans are playing from ahead or behind. Foster’s 9 catches and 30 carries Sunday marked the third time in the last five games that he’s caught six or more passes and/or carried the ball 20 or more times. Clearly, Foster is the guy in whose hands the coaches want the football… Deion Branch had his best game Thursday since his first week with the Patriots in week six, when he caught nine passes for 98 yards and a score. Against the Lions on Thanksgiving, Branch caught three passes for 113 yards and two touchdowns. Honestly, though, did you see the 79 yard touchdown? Detroit’s secondary made Branch look like Barry Sanders playing against high schoolers on that play. I wouldn’t be fooled by Branch’s big day Thursday. Given their offensive game plan, and Tom Brady’s propensity to go to the open man, New England’s receivers will continue to be hit-and-miss the rest of the season… I’ve been consistently critical of Jay Cutler in this column all season (and last season, and the season before that), but I have to tip my hat to him; he looked very good Sunday in Chicago’s victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Cutler completed 14 of 21 passes for 247 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions Sunday, only the fifth game this year that he’s avoided throwing a pick. Cutler stared the high-pressure Eagles defense right in the face and didn’t flinch, taking what the defense gave him rather than try to force the big play. Good work, Jay. Now can you do it again next week?... If only Rashard Mendenhall could play in overtime every week. Thirty-three of Mendenhall’s 151 yards came in overtime yesterday, and you’ll recall that earlier this year he broke off a 50 yard touchdown run against Atlanta to win the game in overtime. It’s plainly obvious that Mendenhall looks to have another gear towards the end of games… Knowshon Moreno looks healthy. I mean fully healthy. And for the third consecutive week, Moreno scored a touchdown on the Broncos’ opening drive. Yesterday, Moreno carried 12 times for 56 yards and a touchdown and also caught 6 passes for 62 yards. He did lose a fumble, but it’s clear that Moreno is the main guy Josh McDaniels wants involved in both the running and passing game as much as possible. Health wise, he looks quicker and more explosive than he as he has at any point this season.

Quick Hits

Welcome back to fantasy relevance, Wes Welker. After toiling in fantasy mediocrity from weeks 3-9, you’ve put together three solid weeks in a row, and none has been better than Thanksgiving Day’s 8 catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns. He might be heating up at just the right time… For the second consecutive week, Michael Turner topped 100 yards and found the endzone against a good rush defense. Turner carried 23 times for 110 yards and a score against a Green Bay defense that at times this season has shut down some very good running backs. The next five weeks, Turner faces Tampa, Carolina, Seattle, New Orleans, and Carolina. Go look at what those teams have allowed opposing running backs to do this season, and begin licking your chops… For the second time this season, BenJarvus Green-Ellis recorded two touchdowns in a single game. He carried 12 times for 59 yards and two touchdowns, and led all Patriots running backs in carries. While not a guy who’s going to average 20 touches per game, Green-Ellis has been the lead runner in the Patriots’ backfield all year… Raiders wide receiver Jacoby Ford posted another big game Sunday, catching 4 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown while also compiling over 200 return yards and a kickoff return. Ford made a big splash in week 9 when he recorded 148 receiving yards and also returned a kickoff against the Chiefs, and he’s already posted another big game three weeks later (the Raiders had a bye in week 10). If your league rewards return yards, Ford is definitely a guy you want to try to get your hands on… Brandon Lloyd is no fluke. He caught 4 passes for 76 yards and two touchdowns yesterday, marking the fourth game in a row in which he has scored. Through 12 weeks, Lloyd not only leads the NFL in receiving yardage, but he has also now scored 9 touchdowns this season, putting him among the league leaders in that category as well… A week after giving their two running backs only 7 carries combined against Chicago, the Miami Dolphins fed them again and again against an Oakland defense that has struggled this year against the run. Ronnie Brown carried 24 times for 85 yards, and Ricky Williams carried 20 times for 95 yards and a score. Williams’ stat line was bolstered by a 45 yard touchdown run that sealed the game for the Dolphins. Unfortunately, from a fantasy standpoint, both Dolphin backs have run pretty well this year when given a chance. It’s going to take an injury to one of these guys to make the other truly fantasy relevant… Don’t look now, but the Bears offensive line is starting to pick it up in the run-blocking department. A week after posting 95 yards and a touchdown a touchdown against the Dolphins, Matt Forte needed only 14 carries to gain 117 yards against a Philadelphia defense that completely shut down both New York Giants running backs last weekend. Forte faces the Lions next week, whom he torched for nearly 200 total yards and two scores in week 1… Another four touchdown day from Matt Cassel, who needed only 22 completions on 32 attempts to throw for 233 yards, four scores, and no interceptions against the Seahawks yesterday, in Seattle. I’m not sure if it’s Matt Cassel making Dwayne Bowe look so good or vice versa, but either way their respective owners will take the production they’re getting from these two guys every week. Cassel has now thrown two or more touchdowns in four straight games, and his touchdown total is up to 22 for the season, compared to only four interceptions. He was largely undrafted in all fantasy leagues this year. He’s still on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues, too.

Looking Ahead

Houston at Philadelphia: Houston’s secondary is so bad, and Michael Vick and the Eagles pass offense are so good. Look for the Eagles to score five touchdowns in this one. One from LeSean McCoy, three from Vick passing, and one from Vick rushing.

New Orleans at Cincinnati: The Bengals secondary has been awfully shaky in recent weeks, and Drew Brees and the Saints offense is starting to really heat up. Brees throws four touchdowns.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: After getting largely shut down this week, I expect a better offensive effort out of the Bucs in a must-win home game. It won’t be enough, however, as Atlanta is legit on both sides of the ball. Look for Atlanta to pound Tampa’s rush defense into submission. Michael Turner may run for 200 yards in this game.

Buffalo at Minnesota: Adrian Peterson owners are praying that he’s healthy enough to play against a Buffalo defense that just gave up 150 rush yards to Rashard Mendenhall. Expect Minnesota to score a lot of points in this one, and I have a feeling Buffalo could keep up with them, as they have done quite a bit this season.

Denver at Kansas City: Three weeks ago, the Broncos scored 35 points before the Chiefs could even blink. It might happen in reverse this time. The Chiefs are undefeated at home, and Denver’s defense has been shredded in several consecutive games. Cassel, Bowe, Charles, and Jones will all be fantasy relevant.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Last time these two teams met, the score was 17-14. You can’t sit your studs on either team, but I’d take the under in this one.

NY Jets at New England: Which Patriot defense will show up next Monday? And which Jet offense? Despite how good both defenses have been at times this season (the Jets have been more consistent, obviously) this one has the potential to be 37-35. Or it could end up 10-7. Anything goes in the battle for AFC East supremacy.