Week 13 Recap: What We Saw

The weekly recaps are written by former Stanford kicker Derek Belch.

Like last year, every week this column will recap the week’s performances (good and bad), as well as analyze things that I think you should be made aware of moving forward. I’ve also added a new section this year, entitled “A Closer Look”, to point out a few things that go beyond the statistics. So focus up, make sure your boss isn’t looking over your shoulder, and enjoy.

Sunday marked a strong offensive day in the NFL. While there weren’t any out-of-this-world efforts like we saw last week (Peyton Hillis), there were a lot of very good days from key players. It was a week that likely determined the playoff fate of many teams, which is exactly why we love fantasy so much. Here’s your week 13 recap:

The Good

Adrian Peterson: It’s been awhile since Peterson made this list, and he did so despite leaving last week’s game with what he described as “unbearable” pain in his ankle that forced him to miss an entire week of practice and be declared a game-time decision for yesterday’s game against the Bills. Sure looked like he was fine yesterday, as he carried 16 times for 107 yards and three touchdowns, including a 43 yarder in the fourth quarter during which he literally looked to shift into another gear as he went around a block and down the sideline into the endzone. Unfortunately, however, some owners were dumb enough to sit Peterson yesterday. I guess I can see why you did it, but ultimately you have only yourself to blame.

Marshawn Lynch: For the first time this year, Lynch makes this list due to an 83 yard, three touchdown performance against a woeful Carolina Panthers team that is now 1-11. Despite getting down early, Seattle stuck with the run and handed Lynch the ball 21 times, including two caries from the one yard line that resulted in two of his TDs. The third TD was a 22 yard fourth quarter score that put the nail in the coffin for the Seahawks. It’s strange that this is Lynch’s first true big game since coming to Seattle in a trade, but Seattle doesn’t exactly have the best run blocking unit up front. It’s also strange that backup running back Justin Forsett is still being given so few touches (only 6 carries, but for 60 yards Sunday), but Lynch owners aren’t exactly complaining after days like yesterday.

Reggie Wayne: Another familiar name who has struggled to put up big games this season, Wayne delivered a vintage outing Sunday, catching fourteen passes for two-hundred yards and a touchdown. Oddly enough, it was not the first or second time that Wayne has caught more than 10 passes in a game this year. Nor was it his highest single-game catch total of the season (he caught 15 for 196 against Jacksonville in week 4). By his standards, Wayne has had a sub-par 2010, so it was good to see him blow up like this after catching only 5 passes for 42 yards last week against San Diego. Indianapolis is now faced with four must-win games to finish the season, and the teams they face (Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, Tennessee) don’t exactly have awesome secondaries. Wayne figures to be a big part of the Colts’ gameplan the next month of the year, and should trend upward toward his season averages. That means big numbers during the fantasy playoffs.

Vernon Davis: After scoring a touchdown in three consecutive games earlier this season, Davis hadn’t scored or gone over 100 yards in every game since week 8’s London game against the 49ers. Both happened Sunday, as Davis caught four passes for 126 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay. Davis’ second quarter, 66 yard touchdown reception was the 49ers longest play of the season, and his day actually could have been even better had it not been for a drop on another long pass in the third quarter that would have put him well over 150 yards on the day. With Seattle, San Diego, St. Louis, and Arizona left on the schedule, yesterday’s big day may have been just what Davis needed to begin a torrid finish to the season.

Sidney Rice: Welcome back, Sidney Rice. After missing the first half of the season with a hip injury, Rice needed two games to get his legs back under him. His third game back was a special one, as he caught five passes for 105 yards and two touchdowns yesterday against a Bills defense that isn’t too shabby against the pass. Rice did it all, too, without Brett Favre throwing the passes, as the Gunslinger was injured on the third play of the game, giving way to Tarvaris Jackson. The fact that Jackson (187 passing yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions) looked Rice’s way early and often and was able to display good chemistry with him is huge for Rice owners if Favre is to miss any more time. Rice’s second touchdown was also one of the best catches of the season; I’m still trying to figure out exactly how he came down with it.

The Bad

Dwayne Bowe: A week after posting one of the best receiving days in the history of fantasy football, Bowe did the unthinkable: the big goose-egg. Yup, that’s right, zero catches for zero yards against a Denver defense that Bowe tore up for 13 catches, 186 yards, and two touchdowns just one month ago. If you watched the game, however, it was pretty clear that the Broncos did everything they could to take Bowe out of the game. In fact, Matt Cassel (17 of 31 for 196 yards, one touchdown, one interception) only targeted Bowe three times Sunday. I can’t help but imagine this was a complete fluke, as Bowe has been unstoppable in the six weeks prior to Sunday no matter who he’s played. Next week in San Diego may be tough sledding as well, but St. Louis, Tennessee, and Oakland to finish out the year is pretty nice.

Peyton Hillis: A week after shredding the Carolina Panthers for nearly 200 total yards and three touchdowns, Hillis failed to deliver for the first time in awhile. In what was a tough road-rushing matchup at Miami, Hillis carried 18 times for only 57 yards and caught 7 passes for only 22 yards Sunday in a game where Miami (like the Broncos did with Dwayne Bowe) clearly made Hillis the focal point of their defensive game plan. While Hillis still managed to total 79 yards, he failed to score a touchdown for the first time since week six. There is good news, however. Hillis faces Buffalo next week.

Philip Rivers: Rivers has been a staple of many a fantasy team this year, but the last two weeks have certainly been frustrating. After failing to throw a touchdown pass in a game for the first time all season last week against Indianapolis, Rivers fared only one better yesterday against the Raiders, completing 23 of 39 passes for 280 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. In leagues that subtract points for sacks, Rivers didn’t help you either, as he was sacked four times by an Oakland defense that put the heat on all day. Rivers gets the Chiefs at home next week, followed by matchups with San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Denver. After the last two weeks, he certainly owes his owners some big playoff performances.

Steve Johnson: Looks like last week’s devastating game-winning drop had a bigger effect on Johnson than I thought it would. Stevie caught only two passes for 36 yards yesterday against a Minnesota secondary that just two games ago allowed Greg Jennings to go for 150 and 3 TDs. With Cleveland, Miami, and New England upcoming, I really hope Johnson doesn’t crawl into a dark corner and sulk.

Brandon Lloyd: Like Dwayne Bowe, Lloyd put up a major stinker yesterday despite a dominant performance last time he faced the Broncos (6 catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns). Lloyd caught only two passes for 31 yards, and was targeted only three times. Lloyd, however, like all AFC West players, faces Arizona, Oakland, and Houston his next three games. Yummy.

Chris Johnson: Two weeks in a row now on this list, as Johnson carried 13 times for 53 yards and caught 2 passes for 14 yards against the Jaguars. If Johnson can’t post big numbers against the Colts on Thursday, it may be an indication that he’s already checked out of the 2010 season.

Beyond the Numbers

Maurice Jones-Drew may not have scored Sunday, but he posted another big rushing day, carrying 31 times for 186 yards. His longest carry of the day was only 37 yards, meaning he was able to pick up small chunks of yardage on a consistent basis. Jones-Drew has now topped 100 yards in five straight games, and has also been given 20 or more carries in each of those contests. The Jaguars host Oakland next week, travel to Indianapolis the week after that, and host Washington in week 16. Jones-Drew could end up as fantasy’s leading running back the last half of the 2010 season… Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw had their way with the Washington defense Sunday, combining for 200 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Interestingly, however, Jacobs carried the football only 8 times all game (for 103 yards and two touchdowns), while Bradshaw received 25 carries (for 97 yards and two scores as well). There didn’t seem to be any injury concerns with Jacobs, and one of his touchdowns came in the third quarter, so I’m not exactly sure what was going on here. Bradshaw has been the guy whose hands the Giants have wanted the ball in all year, but Jacobs hasn’t exactly played poorly since being named the starter last weekend, as he’s rushed for 190 yards on 22 carries against two decent run defenses. More importantly, Jacobs looks to be running as decisively and powerfully as he did two years ago when he ran for 1,089 yards and 15 touchdowns… Steven Jackson did what you’d expect of your top running back against a poor defense, carrying 28 times for 102 yards and a touchdown against the Rams yesterday. Jackson’s 3.6 yards per carry average was the seventh time this season that he’s averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in a game, but let’s keep this one in perspective; Arizona was playing run first, second, and third during the fourth quarter Sunday. Through three quarters, Jackson had 19 carries for 90 yards, which is much better than 4.0 yards per carry. Additionally, Jackson broke several runs of 10+ yards yesterday, including his 27 yard touchdown… Maybe Sunday’s big day in a what ended up being a win for the Cowboys will be just what Tashard Choice needed to earn more playing time. Choice, getting a chance to see more time due to Marion Barber’s injury, carried 19 times for 100 yards and a touchdown against the Colts Sunday, making a strong case to consistently receive more carries moving forward. If you’ve read this column over the past three years, I’ve been consistent and emphatic in starting that Choice is the Cowboys’ best, most complete running back. It’s baffling to me why, entering Sunday’s game, he had carried the ball less than ten times all season. Maybe Sunday will be the tipping point… The Buccaneers may have lost Sunday, but it was rookie LeGarrette Blount’s finest game this season. Sure, Blount has put up more yardage in previous games, but he carried 20 times for 103 yards and a touchdown against a Falcons defense that has been brutal against the run this year. Blount’s longest run was 28 yards, meaning he averaged close to 4.0 yards per carry on his other 19 rushes. Additionally, Cadillac Williams received only two carries. Blount’s last two games were supposed to be tough matchups (Baltimore last week and yesterday versus Atlanta), yet he combined to carry 33 times for 158 yards and a score in those two games. With Washington, Detroit, and Seattle upcoming, Blount is a guy you want in your lineup as you make a championship push.

Quick Hits

Another big (Thursday) night for Michael Vick, who completed 22 of 33 for 302 yards, two touchdowns and one interception against one of the weakest defensive backfields in the NFL (Houston). Vick also ran 10 times for 48 yards and a touchdown, which is better than many starting running backs (that you may have picked in the first round) this week. As a passer, Vick threw for 300 yards for the third time in his last four games, and continues to look confident, decisive, and accurate. If you own him, you may literally be praying he stays healthy throughout the playoffs… No starting quarterback? No second-string quarterback? No problem for Calvin Johnson, who hauled in 3 passes for 66 yards and a (46 yard) touchdown Sunday against a Chicago defense that has been very good against the pass this season. It was Johnson’s 12th touchdown of the season, and reassurance that he’s a must-start no matter who is under center for the Lions… Chris Ivory’s performance the past few weeks may make the Saints re-think brining Pierre Thomas back for the remainder of the season. Ivory carried 15 times for 117 yards and two touchdowns Sunday, marking the second-straight game in which he has scored twice, and the third game in a row that he has scored a touchdown (after not scoring in any game prior to week 11!). Ivory seems to be figuring things out, and the Saints would be wise to keep using him as much as possible… Jonathan Stewart followed up a strong week 12 effort (12 carries for 98 yards against Cleveland) with another strong game, rushing for 92 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries on the road at Seattle. It helped that Mike Goodson left in the first half with a shoulder injury, but it was clear from the beginning that J-Stew was the guy Carolina was going to feed the most. Perhaps Stewart is getting ready for a big fourth quarter of the season, like last year? Doubtful, but he certainly may help you against Arizona in week 15… Knowshon Moreno carried 23 times for 161 yards on the road at Kansas City Sunday, his second 100 yard game since returning from injury, and the fourth game in a row in which he’s averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry. Moreno looks to be every bit of the first round draft choice the Broncos drafted him to be last season, and is rewarding owners who were patient with him through his early-season injury woes… Welcome back, Darren McFadden. After rushing for 16 yards on 18 carries over the past two games, you carried 19 times for 97 yards and a score and caught three passes for 30 yards against a Chargers defense that had been suffocating to opposing running backs this season. A strong finish against Jacksonville, Denver, and Indianapolis just may make you a consensus second-round fantasy draft pick next year, after being all but ridden-off heading into this season… In his past four games, Greg Jennings has caught 25 passes for nearly 500 yards and six touchdowns. Yesterday, Jennings caught six passes for 122 yard and two scores, his third consecutive 100 yard game and the second time in three games he’s scored two or more touchdowns…

Looking Ahead

Next week kicks-off the playoffs for most leagues, and here’s a little preview of what I think could happen that will have huge implications during do-or-die games:

Indianapolis at Tennessee: If Chris Johnson can’t go for 100+ yards here, I’d be shocked, seeing that Dallas just tore up the Colts for over 200 yards on the ground.

Green Bay at Detroit: Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game stays hot, while the Lions make this one interesting. Calvin Johnson has flat-out owned the Packers, and I don’t expect that to change this week.

Denver at Arizona: There’s no reason why the Broncos shouldn’t score 40 points in this game.

Oakland at Jacksonville: Monster day for MJD as the Jags move to 8-5 thanks to a blowout over the Raiders. Garrard throws for two scores and runs for another, too. Jacksonville’s secondary, by the way, isn’t very good. Jacoby Ford goes for another long touchdown, in addition to a lot of kick-off return yards.

Philadelphia at Dallas: Dallas is hot, but I just don’t see anyone truly stopping Michael Vick. With Dez Bryant done for the year, look for Roy Williams to be the primary benefactor, while the Dallas run game should continue to shine.