Week 16 Recap: What We Saw

The weekly recaps are written by former Stanford kicker Derek Belch.

Like last year, every week this column will recap the week’s performances (good and bad), as well as analyze things that I think you should be made aware of moving forward. I’ve also added a new section this year, entitled “A Closer Look”, to point out a few things that go beyond the statistics. So focus up, make sure your boss isn’t looking over your shoulder, and enjoy.

For most leagues, yesterday was Championship Sunday, and there were certainly some big performances. And of course, there were also some huge stinkers from guys you’ve been counting on all year. And then there was the Sunday night game. As in, it’s been moved to Tuesday. I’m sure many a championship contest are waiting to be resolved until Tuesday night, and lucky for you we have the most exciting offense in the league waiting to be unleashed. Here’s the final Monday recap of the 2010 season. Thanks to all for reading!

The Good

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers completed 25 of 37 passes for 404 yards and four touchdowns Sunday against a New York Giants defense that was supposed to be fired up after an embarrassing fourth quarter last week against Philadelphia. Throw in his 26 rushing yards and you have fantasy’s top performance of the week. The only negative about Rodgers’ performance yesterday was that if it weren’t for his concussion two weeks ago, Rodgers owners could have been treated to these types of numbers last week, too.

Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe: Although Matt Cassel was able to return from his appendectomy to the starting lineup last week against St. Louis, it was pretty obvious that he was moving very gingerly at times and overall looked pretty tentative (and understandably so!). That, and the Chiefs deployed a pretty conservative game plan in an effort to keep Cassel from taking any hits. Yesterday, the training wheels came off and it was business as usual for Cassel, who completed 24 for 34 for 314 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. He also ran for 20 yards on three carries, and overall looked nearly 100% physically (and mentally). Cassel’s return also meant a return to relevance for one of 2010’s biggest surprises, Dwayne Bowe. Bowe caught six passes for 153 yards and a score, the first time he has both topped 100 yards or scored a touchdown since week 12 against Seattle (when he caught 13 passes for 170 yards and three touchdowns). Both Cassel and Bowe rewarded owners who kept faith in them. The “never sit your studs” theory holds true once again.

Matt Forte: In a game that spelled doom for Forte, the third-year back out of Tulane was spectacular. Despite facing the Jets’ fourth-ranked rush defense, Forte was able to pick up 113 rush yards and a score on only 19 carries, while also adding four catches 56 yards. Heading into tonight’s game, Forte’s production was good for second best at the running back position. Forte has quietly put together a solid second half to the season. With the exception of the week 14 blowout to the Bears, Forte has either scored or topped 100 total yards (or both) in four of his last six games. There’s no reason he can’t do the same next week against a Green Bay defense that is depleted due to injury and hasn’t exactly been invincible against the run in recent weeks.

Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace: After three five straight games of passing for under 300 yards, Big Ben had nearly that many in the first half against the Carolina Panthers on Thursday night, and finished with 320 yards and one touchdown, completing 22 of 32 passes. He also scored a rushing TD, making this week’s performance one of the best by a quarterback. Big Ben’s big week also meant a return to relevance for wide receiver Mike Wallace, who caught four passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. It was Wallace’s first score since week 11, and his second straight 100 yard game. While Wallace displayed some inconsistency this season, he’s certainly lived up to his preseason potential this year.

Carson Palmer: Well, this was certainly unexpected. Not only have the Bengals been an absolute mess this season, but Palmer hasn’t thrown for more than one score since week 11 when the Bengals hosted the Bills. Palmer was also without both Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. One would think that the loss of those two would result in a ground-heavy gameplan for the Bengals, and it did. Palmer through only 21 times Sunday, completing 16 of those for 269 yards and four touchdowns against a Chargers defense that was hot coming in. I can’t imagine many people had him active, but it was still impressive.

Jacob Tamme: It had been awhile, but Tamme finally got back in the endzone Sunday. It was his first touchdown since week 12, and it couldn’t have come at a better time for his owners. Tamme finished the day with 7 catches for 78 yards and a score. It wasn’t the best tight end performance of the day, but it was likely the best of those who were expected to do well.

Patriots Defense: Two sacks, three interceptions, four fumble recoveries, and only three points allowed. This unit likely single-handedly propelled you to victory.

The Bad

Rashad Jennings: Maurice Jones-Drew owners who were lucky enough to have made it this far in the fantasy season were without the hottest running back in football when their teams took the virtual gridiron Sunday. In stepped Jennings, who most people assumed would pick up right where MJD left off. Given how well Jennings has played this year in limited time and that Sunday’s game was against a Washington Redskin defense that has been gashed several times this year, it certainly made sense. Unfortunately, things didn’t exactly go as planned, as Jennings gained only 32 rush yards on 15 carries and 29 receiving yards on four catches. Ouch.

Calvin Johnson: One of fantasy’s most dependable players couldn’t manager much Sunday, as Megatron was held to only 52 yards on four catches despite Shaun Hill’s return to the lineup and 27 points scored by the Detroit offense. One can only imagine how good Johnson will be next year if he and Matthew Stafford are both able to stay healthy.

Peyton Hillis: Hillis’ week 3 matchup with the Baltimore Ravens was his coming-out party, as he carried 22 times for 144 yards and a touchdown; it was also the first 100-yard rusher the Ravens had allowed in over a year. This time around, the Ravens did their homework on Hillis and the Browns running game, holding him to only 35 yards on 12 carries. Hillis was also rather inactive in the passing game, catching only one pass for five yards despite Colt McCoy’s second straight start after missing three games due to injury (McCoy threw to Hillis a lot for a several game stretch). If this were the beginning or middle of the season, we’d also point out that Mike Bell received seven carries (for 27 yards), and how it would be a trend worth keeping an eye on. But it’s the end of the season, so it doesn’t really matter. After consecutive games in which he carried only 14 and 12 times (for 59 and 35 yards, respectively), it’s possible that Hillis is a little worn down. It was certainly a wonderful year for arguably fantasy’s biggest surprise.

Fred Jackson: At one point, Jackson was having his way with the New England defense, rushing for 50 yards on only five carries. Unfortunately, the Patriots’ offense was their best defense, as the Bills fell behind early and were unable to give Jackson the ball. He finished with only 13 carries, but for 81 yards. It certainly could have been a better day for Jackson.

Reggie Wayne: A week after catching only five passes for 34 yards against the porous Jaguars, Wayne was ineffective again against Oakland. Wayne caught only three passes for 40 yards Sunday, finishing his 2010 fantasy season with a whimper.

Beyond the Numbers

Josh Freeman put an exclamation mark on a quietly spectacular season yesterday, when he threw for 237 yards and five touchdowns. While it was the first time since week 11 that Freeman has thrown for more than one touchdown, it was the 12th straight game in which he has thrown for a score. Not even Peyton Manning can boast that feat this season. If you’ve watched Freeman this year, it’s pretty clear that he has the “it factor” that GMs look for in a quarterback. And with numbers like these, he’s making a strong case to be a high draft pick next season… Freeman’s teammate LeGarrette Blount started slow but got it rolling late, finishing with 18 carries for 164 yards. Due to his size, Blount doesn’t look all that fast compared to everyone else, but he’s clearly proven he can play, and already looking like a future star in this league. If you’ve watched any of Blount’s game this year, you’ve probably noticed that a majority of the time he does his damage in the second half, and particularly the fourth quarter. That’s the kind of back you’ll want on your team in future years, especially if the Bucs can keep winning next year... Jamaal Charles – 13 carries for 77 yards, 4 catches for 40 yards and two scores – is clearly moving at a different speed than everyone else. It’s that simple. Coming into Sunday’s game, Charles was averaging 6.4 yards per carry this season, and 6.0 yards per carry for his career. He’s a fun player to watch, and should continue to put up huge numbers throughout his career, as long as he stays healthy of course… You’ve gotta hand it to Tim Tebow. Second career NFL start and he’s already got a 300 yard passing day under his belt. Tebow completed 16 of 29 for 308 yards and a score Sunday and also carried 10 times for 27 yards and a touchdown. While Tebow did throw an interception Sunday, he also made some very good throws that we didn’t see last week. I also saw something interesting, however. The Broncos played to Tebow’s strengths Sunday, keeping things simple and using plenty of bubble screens and short passes that Tebow was so good at in college. He still has a long way to go as an NFL quarterback, but he’s off to a good start… Danny Woodhead is a stud. The little guy ran for 93 yards and a score on 13 carries and also caught three passes for 32 yards yesterday. If you watch Woodhead, however, you know that he clearly plays much bigger than his size. Woodhead combines shiftiness with a (very) low center of gravity to create power and leverage on tacklers. It remains to be seen if Woodhead will have a similar role (and impact) next season, but he’s certainly made a great case for himself… Heading into 2011, you have to love what you’re seeing from Greg Jennings, who caught 7 passes for 142 yards yesterday against the New York Giants. Jennings has now gone over 100 yards in four of his last six games (the other two were when Aaron Rodgers was out with a concussion), and has clearly re-asserted himself as Rodgers’ top target. Things could change again with a Jermichael Finley next year and the Packers’ other young receivers playing quite well (James Jones, Jordy Nelson), but there’s no reason to believe Jennings won’t be a top receiver next year… Yet again, I have to give Jay Cutler credit. He led his team to a shootout victory yesterday over the Jets, as the Bears put up 38 points against one of the league’s best defenses. Cutler completed only 13 of 25 passes, but three of them went for touchdowns (four if you count the fact that one was to the other team for a score!), along with his 215 passing yards and one rushing score. While a lot of Cutler’s TD passes have come from shorter range this season, yesterday’s scores were on passes of 40, 25, and 26 yards. Cutler seems to be very comfortable in Mike Martz’s offense, and is looking like he can finally be trusted going forward.

Quick Hits

Could we be looking at a return to relevance for Kellen Winslow in 2011? If Josh Freeman continues to improve at the speed he already has, it’s certainly a possibility. Winslow caught seven passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns yesterday, his fourth and fifth of the season. While Winslow was very inconsistent all season, that could change next year with everyone in the Bucs offense gaining another year of maturity. The pieces are certainly in place – Freeman, Blount, Winslow, Mike Williams – for this to be a potent offensive team… Miles Austin finally topped 100 yards on Saturday, catching six passes for 115 and a touchdown. It was Austin’s first 100-yard game since week 8, and his fifth of the year. Not bad, but it was certainly a disappointing year for Austin, who became one of the highest paid receivers in the NFL last offseason. Of course, Tony Romo’s injury and the emergence of Dez Bryant didn’t help, but owners were still hoping for a little more… It’s about time, Shonn Greene. You scored only your second rushing touchdown of the season yesterday, part of a 12 carry, 70 yard effort against a stingy Chicago rush defense. Where were games like this all season? No matter what you do in the postseason, we will not be fooled in next year’s draft (hopefully)… Another guy who is worth valuing high (again) in 2011, Ryan Mathews stepped in for the injured Mike Tolbert yesterday and carried 12 times for 55 yards and a touchdown. He also caught three passes for 28 yards. Had the Chargers not been trailing the entire game, Mathews may have been able to do even more damage. In the past three games since returning from injury, Mathews has averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in two of them, and scored two touchdowns. More importantly, he looks like he’s starting to figure out how to run in the NFL… Shout-out to John Skelton, who threw his first touchdown of his NFL career on Christmas night against the Dallas Cowboys. Skelton couldn’t help Larry Fitzgerald be relevant two weeks in a row (9 for 125 last week, 1 for 26 this week, ouch), but at least he is showing signs of life. Not that I think he’ll be the Cardinals quarterback on opening day next year, but you never know… Another good week for Jason Witten, who scored for the fifth consecutive week, and the eighth time overall this season. Since week 12, Witten has been the mark of consistency, and the top scoring tight end at a position that really hasn’t done much this year. His 8 catches for 45 yards yesterday (and the touchdown) marked the fifth time this year that he’s caught eight or more passes. Witten has reasserted himself as a top-tier option at TE heading into next year’s draft… Lastly, thanks a lot, Darren McFadden. Biggest game of the year, against one of the league’s worst run defenses, and all you can manage is 11 carries for 45 yards (and 31 receiving on four catches)? That’s about as bad as it gets at a time when you need it most. I suppose we’ll give you a break given that you turned in one of the better seasons of all running backs this year, but that one really hurt, and will leave a bitter taste in a lot of owners’ mouths heading into next year’s draft.

Looking Ahead

With the majority of leagues wrapping up this past weekend, there isn’t much to look forward to next week. However, if your league has its title game next weekend, here are a few things that may happen:

Carolina at Atlanta: Jason Snelling runs wild as Michael Turner and Matt Ryan get a rest for the playoffs.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: With the Ravens already in the playoffs, look for Ray Rice and Joe Flacco to take some time off next weekend. I could see Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain getting in the endzone a couple times.

Chicago at Green Bay: Chicago’s in, but has a chance at the #2 seed, so it remains to be seen how they will play this one. Green Bay, on the other hand, needs to win this game to have a shot at the playoffs. Play all your Packers, despite the Bears solid defense.

Tennessee at Indianapolis: Indy scores 40 points in a game that will send them to the playoffs for the 10th straight season.

Oakland at Kansas City: With the West won, it’ll be awfully tempting for Todd Haley to sit his starters, at least for part of the game. Temper your expectations for Charles, Cassel, and Bowe.