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Week 4 Las Vegas market report

After a surprising 2-1 start, the early money is backing Geno Smith and the Jets in Week 4. Joe Fortenbaugh

September 24, 2013
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We haven’t even reached the month of October and both sides of the counter already have plenty to complain about. The books have been taking a beating in the college football market (excuse us if we don’t shed a tear) while the bettors have been drowning on NFL Sundays. Hell, a quick look at the current standings in the prestigious LVH SuperContest is all you need to understand how tricky handicapping the NFL has been so far in 2013.

So we’ll continue to remain patient (at least we say we will) while studying the market each week looking for the most favorable spots.

Week 4 bye: Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers

AFTER THREE WEEKS

Home teams: 26-19-3 (.577)
Favorites: 23-22-2 (.511)
Home dogs: 8-5 (.615)
Home favorites: 18-14-3 (.562)
Overs: 23-25

CLICK HERE to check out all of the current Week 4 lines.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1, 0-1 road) at Cleveland Browns (1-2, 0-1 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Bengals -6
Current: Bengals -4.5

Analysis: Credit solid performances from quarterback Brian Hoyer (321 yards, 3 TDs) and wide receiver Josh Gordon (10-146-1) in Sunday’s win over Minnesota, the possibility of Week 4 being a flat spot for the Bengals after their marquee win over Green Bay and the fact that the last six matchups between Cleveland and Cincinnati have been decided by an average of 5.3 points per game for the line move towards the Browns. Also note that the Bengals are 3-7-2 ATS over their last 12 games against the AFC North, while Cleveland is 7-3-1 ATS over their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record.

Trends: The underdog is 10-1-1 ATS over the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

New York Jets (2-1, 0-1 road) at Tennessee Titans (2-1, 1-0 home)

Rex RyanICONRex Ryan and the Jets are off to a surprising 2-1 start.

When: Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Open: Titans -5
Current: Titans -3.5

Analysis: It hasn’t looked pretty (Editor’s note: That is the understatement of the century), but the Jets are 2-1 thanks to a defensive unit that currently ranks third in the NFL in both total defense (270.0 yds/gm) and sacks (12). Also at 2-1, the Titans are no slouches either, but Tennessee is a questionable 8-21-1 ATS over their last 30 games against teams with a winning record and 2-6-1 ATS over their last nine games following a straight-up win. New York is a very live dog in this spot, which is part of the reason why the early bettors jumped at the chance to grab five points.

Trends: The Jets are 6-1 ATS over their last seven meetings with the Titans.

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3, 0-1 road) at Minnesota Vikings (0-3, 0-1 home)

Note: This game will be played in London, England.

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: PK
Current: Steelers -1

Analysis: A battle of 0-3 doormats who have looked as bad as their respective records indicate, Pittsburgh and Minnesota travel across the pond looking to turn their seasons around while there’s still a glimmer of hope. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS over their last six games following a straight-up loss while the Vikings are 1-3-1 ATS over their last five games following a contest in which the team allowed 30 or more points. The bet here is that the Steelers find a way to right the ship before Minnesota does, especially considering the fact that quarterback Christian Ponder has looked downright awful this season (QB rating of 65.9).

Trends: The Steelers are 1-6 ATS over their last seven games overall while the Vikings are 3-8-1 ATS over their last 12 games played in Week 4.

Miami Dolphins (3-0, 2-0 road) at New Orleans Saints (3-0, 2-0 home)

Drew BreesDrew Brees and the Saints are already 2-0 ATS at home this season.

When: Monday, 8:30pm ET
Open: Saints -5.5
Current: Saints -6.5

Analysis: Miami stepped up to the plate in Week 3 and knocked off preseason Super Bowl contender Atlanta in a win that forced the country to stand up and take notice. But defeating the Falcons in South Florida is a far cry from taking out the undefeated Saints in New Orleans, who are 28-13-1 (.683) ATS at home since 2008. Take note that the Saints are 13-5 ATS over their last 18 games following a straight-up win. This is a big step up in class for Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins.

Trends: The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS over their last five Monday night games while the Saints are 4-0 ATS over their last four Monday night games.

Washington Redskins (0-3, 0-1 road) at Oakland Raiders (1-2, 1-0 home)

When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: Redskins -2.5
Current: Redskins -3

Analysis: Home dogs are 8-5 against the number in 2013 and considering how bad the Redskins have looked over the first three weeks of the season, it’s a bit surprising to see the early money coming in on a less-than-100% Robert Griffin III and Washington. However, Oakland is on a short week after getting rocked in Denver on Monday night and has division rival San Diego on deck, while the Redskins go on vacation in Week 5. The situation points to Washington, but it won’t be easy laying a full three on a road team that enters Week 4 at 0-3.

Trends: The Redskins are 0-4 ATS over their last four games overall while the Raiders are 4-0 ATS over their last four games following a straight-up loss.

THE REST

Dallas Cowboys (2-1, 0-1 road) at San Diego Chargers (1-2, 0-1 home)

When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: Cowboys -2.5
Current: Cowboys -2

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2, 1-0 road) at Denver Broncos (3-0, 2-0 home)

When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: Broncos -11
Current: Broncos -10.5

San Francisco 49ers (1-2, 0-1 road) at St. Louis Rams (1-2, 1-0 home)

When: Thursday, 8:25pm ET
Open: 49ers -3
Current: 49ers -3 (-120)

Baltimore Ravens (2-1, 0-1 road) at Buffalo Bills (1-2, 1-1 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Ravens -3.5
Current: Ravens -3.5

Indianapolis Colts (2-1, 1-0 road) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3, 0-1 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Colts -7.5
Current: Colts -7.5

Seattle Seahawks (3-0, 1-0 road) at Houston Texans (2-1, 1-0 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Seahawks -3
Current: Seahawks -3 (even)

Arizona Cardinals (1-2, 0-2 road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3, 0-1 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Buccaneers -3 (even)
Current: Buccaneers -3 (even)

Chicago Bears (3-0, 1-0 road) at Detroit Lions (2-1, 1-0 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Lions -3
Current: Lions -3 (even)

New York Giants (0-3, 0-2 road) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0, 1-0 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Chiefs -4.5
Current: Chiefs -4.5

New England Patriots (3-0, 1-0 road) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2, 1-0 home)

When: Sunday, 8:30pm ET
Open: Falcons -1.5
Current: Falcons -1.5

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

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