Weekend notes: Packers must adjust

Asking Rodgers to throw from a three step drop is like asking an alcoholic to stop at 3.

This game will be won the same way that the Eagles game was won last week. Dallas will use its special teams to pin the Packers behind their own 30 every time they get a chance. The Packers, like the Eagles, rely so heavily on YAC to make their TD's that if you just keep them in front of you you'll win the game. They cannot score on the long drives.

Your prescription takes only one phase of the game into account; as if it's independent of the other phases. Look at how the Packers' D will attack Dallas and how the Packers' ST will have to perform better than their average in order to keep the field position in their favor.

IMHO, the prescription works only if the game is close and only between the 30's. Let's face it: in the NFL, it's not the desperate team that wins, it's the better team that wins.

Good luck with your pick.

The analysis all week has been that Dallas beat Philly by taking away the big plays and that Philly is incapable of sustaining long drives. Is Green Bay somehow more capable of nickel and diming their way down field and sustaining long drives? Their running game isn't really any better than Philly. Driver is probably a better possession receiver than Philly has, with the exception of Celek, but I'm not sure he's a breakaway threat against Dallas' speedy corners. I've heard the "desparation" game argument and there's probably something to that but Green Bay had desperation games last year, too, and ended up 6-10. I just don't see it.

Matt: I've been waiting for the game plan you've described since the season began. It just has not happened. Another problem the Packers have had is that Grant is a terrible receiver, but Green is very good. They have missed Finley at TE. This game is huge for the Packers. If they don't pull it out, they will be totally demoralized and kaput.

I second everything marcopo said.

The first thing that's got to happen is that somebody's gotta' grab Rodgers by the facemask and say "Get. Rid. Of the ball!" He's an outstanding deep-ball passer, so he always wants to wait for the deep stuff to open up, but he's just gotta' understand that that's not going to work right now. The line isn't good by any means, but they're not nearly as bad as Rodgers is making them look. It's like the Steelers of a couple years ago, except that A-Rodg isn't big or strong enough to throw accurately with three guys draped all over him like Big Ben is.

I also liked what LeRoy Butler said about the mindset that the Packers have to have right now: "We have to accept this is going to happen. They’re going to give up five to six sacks every game the rest of the year."
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/69595447.html

That's not to say that you don't try to hide your deficiencies any way you can through game-planning (like Matt's saying in this article), but you gotta' realize this team can't be something it's not. They can't send out 4 or 5 wide receivers and expect that the line's gonna' hold up. They can't go shotgun empty backfield and wait 3.5 seconds for that deep out to develop. They've got to max protect sometimes. They've got to throw slants and shallow outs. When the play isn't a run or play-action, then the ball's got to be gone in 2 seconds. Basically, they've got to crawl and walk before they can run.

Is it going to happen? Honestly, I don't think so. These problems (and their logical solutions) have been staring everybody in the face all year. They haven't figured it out yet, so there's no reason to believe that they ever will. I'll be watching and rooting either way, but put me down as "cautiously pessimistic."

I hate to say it but its becoming obvious that the Packers are quickly reverting to the disaster of poor teams for years to come. Favre did wonders for the team but he is gone and it will be a long time before the packers are play off caliber again-it could be 20 years.

This was Mike McCarthy's year to prove he was a head coach.

He has come up Woefully short. These next 8 games are putting him in Deep Water and he's throwing on a Survival suit.

Matt - good analysis but that's what's been lacking in the Green Bay game plan all season. Another key element is getting Grant and Green more involved in both the run and the pass. I'd feel a lot better about GBs chance if Finley were back but injuries happen.

Another huge question mark in this one will be Jones starting in place of Kampmann - nobody, including Dallas, has any clue what this kid can do because he really hasn't played anything but special teams but odds are he'll be an upgrade in pass coverage. The biggest question in this phase is how will the Packer D deal with Witten given that their best cover LB is also likely not to play (chillar).

Indy isn't known for its great offensive line and yet Peyton Manning is one of the least sacked. He understood pressure and play it off or rather, use it to his advantage.

Another example to emulate is Roethlisberger who has high sack count, but he finds a way to execute.

Matt's analysis is spot on, too bad the naybobs of negativity don't know what they're talking about. Has Aaron Rodgers taken some dumb sacks this year? Absolutely. Are all 37 sacks on him? Absolutely not! The Packers offense under McCarthy has always been the Norv Turner WC version that favors the deep pass. You can't blame Rodgers for holding the ball on five- and seven-step drops when he's got someone in his face on step four. He typically dodges the first guy only to get nailed by the defensive tackle coming up the middle or the opposite defensive end.

Having said that, the Packers have been extremely successful offensively using the quick passing game - and they've shown the ability to go on extended drives when they avoid sacks on first or second down. Despite all of the Packers problems, they're still one of the better offensive teams in nearly every key indicator of success - except for sacks.

I agree that McCarthy has been slow to adapt to the deficiencies in this year's team, but there are not that many differences in this team and the team that lost in the NFC Championship. And don't come to me with Favre being the difference - he lost that game for the Packers. And mark my words, Vikings fans are going to know the sting of heartbreak with Brett Favre before the end of this season. He's like death and taxes in that respect.

Dallas isn't going to bring the house in this game. They don't need to. They'll do what the Vikings did: create pressure up front with nothing but four guys, maybe blitz one now and then, and take away everything underneath, forcing McCarthy/Rodgers to beat them with the deep pass. The argument in this article fails because Dallas' D won't play the Packers the way they played the Eagles. They don't need to. Thus, the Packers game plan can't be what this article describes.

My game prediction: I fully expect the Packers to score TDs in this game. I guarantee more than one of these scores will be the result of a downfield throw that Rodgers buys time for by "holding the ball too long." Everyone will be very excited and happy about the Packers scoring. Later in the game, when McCarthy and Rodgers go for that same look downfield and it doesn't pan out, everyone will give up on McCarthy/Rodgers as if the TD play on the last drive was some sort of accident. Just watch.

Expect Wade Wilson to have coached guys up on recovering their steps if they get run throughs.

Dallas should be looking for the screen early, enough to make Rodgers hesitant to use it. Then they'll resume bullrushing him in hopes he freezes up. If that defense tastes blood early it could get really bad.

Contingency plan in place, any kind of early mistake, start going to your maximum protection looks. Better to lose from incompletions standing on your feet than on your back with the ball loose on the ground.

Matt,

I've been calling for this type of OFF since the CIN game in week 2. GB needs to run at least 1 screen and draw each Qtr to keep the DEF line and LB honest. They also need to checkdown to the RB in the flat more often, something Ahman Green was great at.

Back in the Superbowl years, Green Bay was successful because of their short passing game. They have gotten away from that under MM. Although they lead the league in passing plays over 20 yards, the cost of 37 sacks has them at .500 and 3 of 4 victories have come against STL, DET, and CLE, and the 4th against CHI isn't very impressive either.

The problem in the run and screen game is that Ryan Grant isn't a pass receiving option and the most likely option Brandon Jackson has played rarely this year. Green might be ready to become that player, but will be limited in the yards he'll gain. GB can live with 5 yards on these plays if it means Rodgers is upright and not losing 10 yards in a sack.

I am skeptical that Mike McCarthy can develop this part of the OFF as he hasn't been able or willing to so far. As far as Rodgers holding the ball, if watching film of the front 4 of DAL rush the passer doesn't get him to get rid of the ball, I don't think he'll ever be able to, at least for this season.

There was a change in plans. McCarthy went conservative, was commited to at least try and run the ball and get Rodgers to step up in the pocket and run if necessary. It wasn't electrifying but it worked. Also this was the Packer defense we saw in preseason. Caper also made some adjustments to let his corners bump a little more and play physical. The Cowboys didn't account for that and it cost them. Hopefully Capers lets Woodson and Harris go back to being who they are.

Did I say I don't see it....oh okay I see it now, good call Playa.