A pot of gold awaits, but will the team that signs him get value? Andrew Brandt
NFL free agency begins Friday with the start of the new league year. Given the virtual certainty of an uncapped 2010, teams are entering unchartered territory in the way they do business. This week, we’ll take a look at free agents who may or may not benefit from this new era of free agency. Today: Julius Peppers.
Background
Julius Peppers is certainly the cream of the diluted group of unrestricted free agents in the 2010 class. He was able to talk his way out of Carolina placing another franchise tag on him (that and the $20-million price tag it would have taken from the cost-conscious Panthers). As the premier defensive lineman in a year when half the franchise tags went to players at that position, it will earn him tens of millions of dollars; nothing accelerates price faster than scarcity of product. With the simple economic concept of supply and demand at work, Peppers should garner the largest contract of the free-agent group, and it should happen quickly, with terms of a deal agreed to by early Friday.
Cost
This will obviously depend on the number of teams involved. However, with word that the perennially aggressive Redskins and selectively aggressive Patriots, Bears and Eagles are involved, there will be some heavy bidding. My sense is that the cost will rival the Terrell Suggs contract of less than a year ago. That contract had a total value of $63M over six years, with $38M guaranteed. Suggs was coming off two franchise tags and would have been an unrestricted free agent this season – along with Peppers – had the Ravens not locked him up. He had been given the tag twice already, and doing so a third time would have cost the Ravens the quarterback tag ($16M). In the event Peppers becomes a Redskin, however, the price may escalate past that of last year’s bonus baby, Albert Haynesworth, with the guarantee moving north of $40M.
Value
Peppers certainly plays a high-impact position and is capable of playing it at the highest level. The question, of course, is will he? My worry would be that if scouts and coaches wondered whether Peppers played with constant motivation before he was rewarded with long-term financial security, that issue certainly would not disappear once he has that security. It will only get worse. My experience, and the experience of countless front office people in the NFL, is similar: Any question marks about a player don’t evaporate when the player gets paid.
The fear about Peppers is not that he’s a bad guy or has off-the-field issues. The fear is motivation to match the talent. If that hasn’t been there while he has played on essentially a one-year deal, it will not get better with a long-term mega-deal.
Obviously, if there was a way to incentivize Peppers throughout the deal – multiple options and rolling guarantees, etc. – that would be preferable to the team that signs him. However, the leverage he has as a result of being the prize of the UFA class will make it hard for a team to put those types of pay-as-you-go mechanisms into the contract.
Peppers will get the pot of gold that all free agents – including the frustrated ones who are now stuck in restricted free agency – dream about. Time will tell if the short-term euphoria of the team that signs him will last through the contract.
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I think he would be a good fit in N.E.. To me, only teams on the cusp of at least a conference championship should invest in him. Any team that is even remotely rebuilding should stay strictly away.
I would love to have J. Peppers in Chicago but with Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith having a one and done WHY would he want to come to the Bears? We already have a well paid d-lineman that lacks effort. Ever heard of Tommy Harris!
Al Davis raised the pay scale for a top end to 12m plus a season. Everyone is waiting to see if he signs Seymour a longer deal to set the market floor again....
T-Bone:
To compare past Patriots' drafts with last year's is not fair. Now, Bill Bellicheck is running the draft room, with last year's poor draftees as example. Scott Pioli and Thomas Dmitroff are NOT WALKING THROUGH THAT DOOR. Bellicheck is on his own, and he has meager results to show for it.
To boot, it seems BB is letting team morale get away from him. Since last year, he has:
1.) Traded away fan and team favorite, and superstar DE Richard Seymour, much to the chagrin of Seymour, his teammates, the fans, and the defense.
2.) Angered Vince Wilfork by slapping the franchise tag on him.
3.) Angered Randy Moss by sending him back out into a snowstorm after he was late to a meeting last year.
4.) Angered Adalius Thomas for the same thing as Moss.
5.) Angered Moss again by refusing to extend his contract.
6.) And...he has yet to redo Tom Brady's deal.
Now that the Patriots are Wes Welker-less, they are beyond vulnerable to the Jets and the Dolphins for AFC East supremacy.
Your RBs are awful, as are your TEs. Tyrone McKenzie's major knee injury was not a good start to his career. For high picks, DBs, Darius Butler, Pat Chung, Brandon Meriweather, and Terrence Wheatley have left a lot to be desired. And most importantly, minus Wilfork, your DLine is a shadow of its once powerful past.
I have friends that are Patriots fans, so I'll make this as plain as day:
Buckle up, the honeymoon's over, sweetie.
The only advantage I see in signing Peppers is because of the uncapped year. If you have money to burn, perhaps a lot of guarantees can be front loaded. However, from a talent level (and motivation is a talent), Peppers is vastly overrated. For the money Peppers would demand, I would rather sign Aaron Kampman, Ryan Clark,and Darren Sproles.
The Patriots days as a serious contender are over. Belichick is a great coach, and Brady is one of the best ever, but the history of the NFL is pretty clear: you get a couple of days in the sun, and that's it. The Patriots will spend the next eight years being the Dolphins of the 90's. They'll have enough success to get talked about, and they'll win the occasional playoff game, but they'll always be the team that seems to be a player or two away.
Bill has lost the fire, and once it's gone, a coach can't ever get it to burn as brightly as it needs to for his team to win it all.
If Peppers wants to win he should be looking at teams with a strong organization and relatively new, talented coaches. But he just wants to get paid, so he'll end up with a team with a weak organization and an average coach, like Chicago or San Diego.
I think where Peppers goes and how much he gets may be decided by considerations involving the CBA more than football. If an owner like Dan Snyder wants to get a new CBA with cap, then he should sign Peppers, Spoles, Rolle, Dansby et al to big deals. If he is comfortable with no cap and no CBA, then he should be conservative in free agency and not frighten any of the other big market teams into thinking he will turn every offseason into a bidding war.
Two words: too much.
the pats, for all the trouble they have, had a very good draft last year and a good one the year before.
They have a lot of quality young players, but a lack of young stars.
They need a couple of impact players badly.
Saying the Pats drafted poorly last year or the year before is not correct.
They lack depth and stars at certain spots, with WR and LB at the very top of the list IMO.
Hey Bob, you can have Adalius Thomas on your beloved Jets....he's a bum... and a cancer in the locker room...
Peppers isn't worth anywhere near that money.
12 sacks in 2 years...... PLEAAASEEE>>>>
Jets? Who roots for the Jets?
As an organization run by professionals , the Patriots will have no interest in outbidding the " in a hurry newbies" for Peppers sometimes very good services. Huge garaunteed numbers are extremely unprofessional 2 years out.
I would love to see Peppers in Chicago. The Bears play the 4-3 he prefers. A lot of things would have to fall in place to bring the Bears D back to prominence - getting Urlacher back, a healthier Tommie Harris (some forget how bad that injury was in 2006), a ball hawking safety - but nothing would bring results faster than a stud pass rusher.
As far as going after one stud or a bundle of great players, I'll take the single stud playmaker all the time. The guy the other team has to gameplan for. That's clearly Peppers.
As far as the status of Smith/Angelo is concerned, why should Peppers give a rat's ass. He'll be paid. Hell, if he performs and the Bears make the playoffs they'll name a street after him. He'll make a killing in endorsements and appearance fees too.
You really can't compare the passion for the game and the fans' hunger in the two cities: Carolina is nice, but folks there care more about basketball. Chicago is as big as it gets for football. He'll be in demand, that's for sure.
he will come to the tampa bay bucs for a big pay day contract for 5 years my guising because tampa bay have a need for defansive end
The comment from BearFan might be an indicator why the Bears have been lousy for so long. The NFL is all about talent. Why would you ignore one of the most talented players in the league? You don't have high draft picks to pay, so that money could be shifted to Peppers.
Having seen Kampman play for years you would get a high-motor guy, but he isn't Peppers. Bear fans should be happy the cheapskate Bear management is finally waking up to the fact you need to pay talent.
Not that I necessarily care, since the Packers have had their way with Mini-Me's of the Midway for several years.
Go Pack!
Bob
Bill Belechick:
apologized to Moss for over reacting
Hates Adalius Thomas
is close to a deal with Wilfork
is working on what to do with next years top 10 Raiders pick
And will do whatever Tom Brady tells him to do like the
rest of us NE football fans
mark f:
Bill Belechick:
apologized to Moss for over reacting
(Moss has CLEARLY not accepted his apology)
Hates Adalius Thomas
(Awesome, truly awesome)
is close to a deal with Wilfork
(Per the Pats)
is working on what to do with next years top 10 Raiders pick
(Maybe he should draft Richard Seymour out of Georgia. He could really help the Pats fill an enormous void at DE)
And will do whatever Tom Brady tells him to do like the
rest of us NE football fans
(Minus Moss and Welker, Brady is not a difference-maker. He is a game-manager. I hope they lock him up for 20 years)
You're right Bob, I mean just think of all those Super Bowls Brady won with Welker and Moss...oh that's right, he won all of them before those guys showed up and went on to lose the only one he had them for. Oh and while you're at it maybe look into the way that whole 3-4 thing they run in NE works. If Peppers signs with a 3-4 team he won't be playing end dude.
Chad Clifton is a penalty machine that kills drives eh? He should fit right in with the Skins then in taking Chris Samuels place another Mr. Drive Killer.
Julius Peppers is one of the best players on defense. He is definitely worth all the money that he gets. Your defense is way better with peppers in it.
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The Patriots have four picks in the first two rounds.... one of the strongest drafts in memory. Signing Peppers would facilitate a "trade up" scenario, giving up two for one to get another top prospect and still be in the hunt for two more. Trading up is something the Pats don't often do, in fact in recent drafts they have consistently traded down or into the next draft. However, it seems unlikely they can do anywhere near as well along the defensive line in the draft, and BB isn't one to play rookies right away. So, I expect the Pats to make a serious play for Peppers and fill that big hole on the right side. Then trade up to take advantage of the "can't miss" talent in this draft.