Four teams are battling for two playoff spots, but not the Bears. Matt Bowen
I love Thanksgiving week in the NFL because this is the point in the year as a player, coach, GM, etc., where seasons are essentially won or lost — depending on the type of playoff push you can manage.
And Sunday, we got to see firsthand how the NFC wild card race is starting to unfold, which teams are still alive and which are basically out — and getting ready to play out the stretch and start over at the Combine in February.
But more importantly, as we get ready to eat turkey on Thanksgiving Day, there’s nowhere to hide, because after 10 games, this is who you are as a football team. The hot starts, the big wins, the early season hype are all gone. Either you win and play well now or fade away with the rest of the conference. There isn’t a gimmick play or certain personnel package that’s going to save you. No, Thanksgiving week lays out the path for us to see.
In saying that, let’s look at the NFC after a crucial weekend of games that exposed some teams but also proved there are others that can still be considered “playoff quality.”
The wild card contenders
Four teams are essentially fighting for two playoff spots:
Philadelphia (6-4)
I like the Eagles because they’re dangerous — on both sides of the ball. Donovan McNabb didn’t play his best game Sunday night here in Chicago, but he made crucial plays at crucial points. I love the way the Philly defense can pressure, and you have to buy this team as a serious playoff contender because it’s capable of swinging a game on any given play.
N.Y. Giants (6-4)
Huge win for the G-Men over Atlanta, but a telling win, as Eli Manning had to have a career day for them to beat the Falcons without Michael Turner. The Giants are loaded on offense, but their lack of playmakers in the secondary and at linebacker position isn’t good enough for me right now. Can they beat Philly? Dallas? I don’t see it.
Green Bay (6-4)
The good news is that the Packers showed us that they’re a much better football team than San Fran, but the bad news is the injuries. Can they replace Al Harris and Aaron Kampman? From my perspective, this is a defensive football team, and now they’ll have to find a way to continue to bring pressure and be creative on that side of the ball without two of their top players. Yes, I’m a fan of Aaron Rodgers and this team’s ability to create the big play on offense, but defense will win in December for the Pack.
Atlanta (5-5)
The Falcons are always going to be in games because they can score on offense and TE Tony Gonzalez is becoming the toughest matchup in the NFC. But their secondary is young, they don’t make a ton of plays, and until Turner is back in the lineup, I see too much stress on QB Matt Ryan. In the race for sure, but I can’t buy them until they’re a complete team again.
Who’s out?
Isn’t it obvious, starting on Thursday night, that these three teams can start getting ready to restructure their rosters— and maybe their coaching staffs— this week?
Chicago (4-6)
I was at Solider Field last night and saw what everyone else did who tuned in — Jay Cutler doesn’t have it for the Bears this season. He left 21 points on the field, and when he had that one final chance to hit Johnny Knox — who had just smoked Sheldon Brown — he didn’t deliver. That play was a season killer for Chicago. Add in the fact that the defense under Lovie Smith is inconsistent and average in the secondary, and we’re looking at a team that will be on vacation in January.
Carolina (4-6)
Going back to Thursday night, not only did Ricky Williams end any playoff hopes for the Panthers, it’s obvious that no matter how well DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart run the football, this is still a quarterback-driven league — and Jake Delhomme isn’t a big-play QB. And that has killed the production of Steve Smith and this entire franchise.
San Francisco (4-6)
The reality is that the Niners — despite their comeback in Green Bay — aren’t a playoff team yet. They’ve had too many games where their defense has vanished, and QB Alex Smith isn’t ready to make a playoff run. I’ll agree that this team is close, but that doesn’t matter in ’09.
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For more coverage on the playoff push in the NFL, check out this article from Bleacher Report.
Getting rid of Turner would be a start for the BEAR... that was painful last night.
Atlanta and Philly will get in. GB has to many strikes against them. Defense can only carry you so far when you have the worst o-line in the league.
Who is Cutler's QB coach? Whoever it is they need to work on his mechanics big time. It looked like he was throwing off his back foot, running forward, or falling away 80% of the time resulting in the inaccurate throws. The only reason he made the one TD throw is because his arm got hit right as he was throwing, or else that might have been over thrown too. The times he stepped into the throws he was very accurate. You can't even say it was the Philly pressure because I thought the protection was there for most of the night.
@Scott-
Have to agree with you on Dallas... Kept them out of today's discussion because they are leading the East as of now, but they could find themselves at home in January if they can't get through the division.
Scott, the only defensive players the Packers have on IR is Will Blackmon (4th stringer/return man), Pat Lee (5th stringer/rookie) and Justin Harrell. Obvioulsy Harris is one of their top five DBs but I don't think we're missing much regarding the other two. Tramon Williams will be Al's replacement and I think he'll do an OK job. When Harris was out with spleen problems Williams stepped so he's got a little starting experience. He made a few mistakes but I also remember he had a couple of picks in the four starts he had. Capers will definietly need to help him out with some safety coverage over the top but I think they'll manage.
As far as Kapman goes, I hate to say it but I really think we should have traded him before the this years deadline. I think it's obvious that he's not a natural fit as an OLB in a 3-4. He's a great player and if they were still running a 4-3 I would never consider getting rid of him. Realistically, I think it's safe to say that yesterday was probably his last game as a Packer because I don't think they'll be resigning him. My prediction is that they'll slap a franchise tag on him to avoid free agency and trade him for whatever they can get. Before yesterday's injury I would guess they could have gotten a second round pick for him, now maybe a third depending on the injury. It would have been nice if they could have traded him while his stock was up for a decent draft pick or a player that can add some depth....possibly an offensive or defensive lineman, linebacker or a cornerback.
Matt, I agree with you for the most part. I still feel the Giants have a real good shot at making the palyoffs, they are loaded but let me ask you, do you feel as I do that the loss of Kenny Phillips has really hurt this team. I think he was primed to have a breakout year. And yes the LB corp has always haunted the giants in the last decade or so, since LT, Banks left.
Leaving Dallas off this list was the right thing to do. They are going to win the division easily, by 3 or 4 games, maybe even 5 ifthings go perfectly. They own the NFC East because they destroyed Philly and Washington. Tony Romo is no doubt once again going to be unstoppable during the stretch run and there is simply no way anyone in the NFC can beat them come playoff time. I know everyone thinks the Saints are the team to beat, but what have they ever proven? Brees falls apart in the playoffs (when they even get there) and I wouldn't rest my hopes on Reggie Bush. Romo is a top 5 QB, perhaps only behind Manning and Brady now, and Dallas is just hitting its stride. Dallas will win the NFC East, beat New Orleans in the championship game, and will destroy whatever team the AFC puts out there. An unstoppable Romo and the unstoppable running game will continue to roll on right to Miami.
@ Starks
I agree about Kenny Phillips. What the Giants lost with his injury was a ball hawk in the middle of the field who get over the top of routes from sideline to sideline. Plus, great defenses in this league have a key playmaker at safety...
They look average in the back end.
I agree with Professor7 that the Packers missed an opportunity to trade Kampman before the deadline. Aaron is a great guy, but he's not the man for that linebacker spot. Unfortunately for Kampman, the shift to the 3-4 and the injury will cost him millions this season. I would have tried very hard to package Kampman, a first and possibly a third to the Rams for Steven Jackson.
Matt,
I am curious about something.
Could a running back, that no longer has the speed, convert to linebacker?
Have to give the Falcons the edge for the wild card based on their schedule down the stretch...their toughest games are at home against New Orleans and Philly (I think the winner of that game gets in). I also see the Giants getting hot and overtaking Dallas to win the NFC East. The last wild card will come down to the Cowboys and Packers, with the Packers having the tiebreaker if they finish even. I'm hopeful the Pack can finish 10-6, but with the injuries to Harris and Kampman 9-7 might be more realistic, which would leave them on the outside looking in.
Prof7 - Blackmon and Lee were both listed ahead of Bush and Underwood prior to their injuries. Blackmon played as the dime corner in three of our first four games. Williams will be fine in Harris' role at corner, the issue becomes who replaces Willams in the nickel. You may recall that in a number of games this year, GB played nickel on virtually every defensive down. Right now, that's going to be either Bush or Underwood and in either case, that's a HUGE drop-off from Williams at what will be an every down position in some games.
I want whatever brian G is smoking! The Cowboys own the NFC east please give me a break. They really smoked the Eagles and Redskins. You can talk whe the cowboys win a playoff game
Brian G. - highly recommend laying down the pipe as you're getting delusional. The Boys needed overtime to beat the Chiefs, they lost to Denver, the Giants beat them at home, you barely beat the Eagles, and you just beat the Skins at home 7-6. The Cowboys don't "own" anything yet - nothing would shock me less than watching them drop four of their last five games. Giants in NY, Chargers and Saints - I can't see the Boys winning those the way they've played their last two. The final game against Philly will depend a lot on the play-off situation at that time.
I don't believe any of the NFC WC contenders have a real hope in the playoffs, lest maybe 1 upset win. NO & MIN have shown to be very good, complete & balanced football teams. Throw in ARZ as a team who is tougher than general perspectives allow. The WC 'winners' will have to travel to one or more of these locations and with the demonstrated weaknesses each has, it just isn't happening. Let's use the GB as an example as I'm a Packer fan. GB's last game is @ ARZ (and it doesn't matter is ARZ rests players), but GB will then fly back to WI, practice and then head out to one of the following locations - DAL, ARZ, PHI or NYG. A win here would them bring a trip to NO or MIN. Another win would likely lead them with travel plans to the other of NO or MIN. Good luck, the magic road of the NYG 2 years ago was the exception, not the rule.
The bears blow it' with D2 college safety' the bears had a chance to get two premeir safety Darren Sharper and/or Brain Dawkins- linebacker Hillenmeyer is a 1/3 of Urlacher so why they didn't sign Derrick Brooks make no sense. Now receivers, Torry Holt and Reggie Williams was on the market (Lovie has personal interest against these guy)/ So you got three talent speed reciever with no one too teach them how too run an NFL route, especially when the quarterback is in trouble. Percy Havin has become great not because of his speed but because they have veteran recievers too help him.
Lets all look at the big picture...I'm no huge sports critic but I know one thing; The Bears traded a Quarter back that had been trained to be a Bear. When he finally is top notch and had a enough time to know all the plays and his receivers they trade him to the Broncos; I was a Big fan of Orton. Now we have a francise quarter back. Granted I was impressed with Jay the first few games, He is gun shy now and looks more like Grossman every day. In his defense he was traded and put in charge of a group of guys he never met and was expected to bring the Bears to the SuperBowl. To give him a fair chance; I wont freak until next year. He needs more time to build his team and know his offence. It would also be nice to get him a line that can let him throw the ball and open a hole to allow someone other than the other team through. With that...Forte was good to go last year but this year he spends most of his time pussy footing!!!! Just hit the hole Gawd dam it! Look at the new guy Bell. His first play in the NFL, he busted out and ran his ass off. and he did it all game long. Why??? He hit the hole and wasn't pussy footing! So folks...My heart is broken and my hopes are going way side as my Bears slip away but I have faith that next year we should be 100% better. Jay...We know you are better than that...relax and be as good as you are.
the cowboys will win the nfc east, romo-friendly and company, will hit their stride when the aiders (raiders), come to town on turkey day. with the 10 day rest after beating the aiders(raiders), the cowboys can focus on scheming the midgets (giants). i think the cowboys will beat the midgets (giants), chargers, deadskins (again) and will close out the season by beating the iggels finishing up 12-4 with the lone lost to the saints. i think miles austin and uno williams will get their act back together and will come through for the cowboys. go cowboys!!
Is that a poker face I always see when the cam pans Lovie Smith? And Turner looks like the kid that left his homework at home and is trying to remember the answers. If I owned the Bears and cared at all for Chicago, I'd grow a sack and can those two immediately.....go after old teammate now def coord for Vikings or Shanahan if you can afford them. You can't afford not to pay for what you need. There's some basic issue that's psychologically affecting Cutler. Hire a therapist or a ten dollar whore to find out what it is so that boy can think clearly on his feet. His face says it all too....where am I?
Leaving Dallas off this list was the right thing to do. They are going to win the division easily, by 3 or 4 games, maybe even 5 ifthings go perfectly. They own the NFC East because they destroyed Philly and Washington. Tony Romo is no doubt once again going to be unstoppable during the stretch run and there is simply no way anyone in the NFC can beat them come playoff time. I know everyone thinks the Saints are the team to beat, but what have they ever proven? Brees falls apart in the playoffs (when they even get there) and I wouldn't rest my hopes on Reggie Bush. Romo is a top 5 QB, perhaps only behind Manning and Brady now, and Dallas is just hitting its stride. Dallas will win the NFC East, beat New Orleans in the championship game, and will destroy whatever team the AFC puts out there. An unstoppable Romo and the unstoppable running game will continue to roll on right to Miami.
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Brian, do you really believe this, or is this a joke? There's only 6 games left. They're up by 1 game, and you think that they're going to win the division by 4 or 5 games? That's just crazy. How exactly do they own the NFC East? They lost to the Giants in a close game. They beat the Eagles in a very close game. That victory against the Redskins was just ugly. Yes, it counts, but it was really ugly. The Cowboys didn't score until there was less than 3 minutes left in the game, which matches up perfectly with their performance in Green Bay.
If the Cowboys offense plays as poorly against NY or Philly, they are done for, and if they lose to Philly they lose the division lead because the Eagles would have the advantage in a tie breaker (assuming the two teams have a similar win-lose record in their other games). If the same scenario happened with the Giants they are in real trouble, as the Giants would have the ultimate tie breaker...a two game sweep. Oh, and the Cowboys have yet to face the Saints, who beat both Philly and NY. Don't kid yourself, the race for the division in still a three-way race.
As for Romo, he doesn't improve down the stretch historically, he falls apart in December and January. Heck, he's fallen apart the past two weeks, and only split those two games because Washington missed two field goals. The loss of Columbo has hurt their running game, and put the pressure firmly on Romo to make things happen. On top of that, teams have learned that if you shut down Whitten and Miles, Williams isn't that big of a threat. Dallas is leading the division for now, but they have two teams only one game behind them with 6 more to go. Even worse for the Cowboys, the Giants and Eagles are teams that traditionally are strong at the end of the year. The Cowboys could conceivably go from leading the division to watching the playoffs from home if they don't play a lot more consistently.
Losing Kampman isn't as bad as losing Harris for the Packers. Williams will just have to step up and get the job done. There aren't many teams without holes due to injuries at this point, so let's not belabor the point. They are all pros so why don't we just expect them to get the job done?
A week ago I would have said the Packers were not a legitimate playoff team because of how horrible their offensive line was. I didn't think it possible, but the line has a good shot at upgrading to mediocre. The line has actually performed fairly well against Dallas, and especially San Francisco. Sitton has stepped up. Colledge, after being threatened with benching, improved. Clifton and Tausher are shadows but yeoman-like. Wells and Lang are scappers. Rodgers is good enought to be dangerous to anyone with a modicum of protection. Grant is stepping up, with some blocking help. The line is a bigger issue than the two hits on Defense. Linebacker will be fine, but someone is going to have to step up QB pressure
the bears have no faith in each other so that why they lose.QB Jay Cutler is a very good Qb but he still makes mistake because he is very young.they also need to fire lovie smith if they want to be a better team.Lovie smith gave us trust in 2005 but we cant any more.Lovie cant make good plays.he needs to help Jay cutler to be faster.He made cutler have his most interception in his career ever. If the bears beat viking which i don't agree on they will have faith in each other.I am convinced the Bears will play in the playoffs in 2009if Jay Cutler and an improved defense will be alot better than ever in the nfl.cutler needs to beat min1time bal det gb st louis.Gb has a tough season to good so they can lose in wild card race.they can lose bal chi pit sea and ari. det can not win because they have to beat cin gb bal ari sf and chi. min will win the nfc north tilt.
The giants were playing with there second stringer for most of the season now they are back to where they should be Ithink the giants will beat phily and the cowgirls in there own stadiam
The NFC is nothing like the AFC here all teams are close competiton AFC is ur either Great or suck... The wildcard for The NFC is either Packers,Eagles, but we still cant call out Dallas out of this because Eagles can take over in the East... I think Greenbay is going to win it because most likely are not passing up Vikings in the north and for Eagles and Cowboys and if Giants can win the rest of there games from here on out its pack winning wildcard and theese three teams gotta battle for the division
In terms of Green Bay, I'm not sure that I quite agree that the "defense" has to carry this team. One can say that about almost any team and there is never a way to minimize a teams defense during a playoff run. IMO, the key to the Packers playoff chances is the offensive line. The last three weeks they've made serious offensive changes (long overdue) to mask the lines deficiencies. Three-step, nickle and dime, screens and a short ball control offense. It's worked and is getting better. The line has to maintain at least a mediocre level. Boths sides of the ball have improved execution. Now, if they can only get special teams to "mediocre".
Nov 23, 2009
01:27 PM
Matt - really have to include Dallas in this mix as I haven't seen anything yet to indicate they can maintain their lead in the NFC East. Packers are definitely in a tough spot with the injuries - since week one, three of their top 5 DBs will now be on IR. I think we'll be okay at the OLB position but the situation at corner could get ugly. GB basically has Jarrett Bush and two rookies left to come up with nickel and dime corners. Not looking forward to the Steelers or Cards match-ups with that bunch...