As focus is on NBA free agency, a look at the NFL challenges Andrew Brandt
First, someone who has been a subject of many a column here, JaMarcus Russell, was arrested this past weekend for possession of a controlled substance. As I detailed in December, Russell appears to be the leader in the clubhouse for the most money spent in the NFL for the least performance.
With Russell the poster boy for what's wrong with rookie contracts, Albert Haynesworth has become the same for free agent contracts. Free agency is the hot topic in sports right now, centered on a certain free agent whose contract expired last week with the Cleveland Cavaliers. With the topic front and center, let’s take a multi-part look at free agency in football.
Although NFL free agency has been relatively dormant in this uncapped year that has seen player-spending drop, even in the height of spending results have been mixed at best. The Redskins’ certainly wish they could have a mulligan on their decision a year ago to lavishly reward Haynesworth.
The first free agent: Big dog
When NFL free agency finally arrived in 1993, the biggest catch of all, Reggie White, defied common wisdom and went to Green Bay for the stated reason of advice from a higher power and the unstated reason of much more money than anywhere else.
White changed the image of the franchise with his decision. I remember that he retired on the day I started in Green Bay, February 17, 1999, but later unretired and inquired about returning to the team. In a scenario that was to play out again with Brett Favre, the Packers denied his request to rejoin the team, although White was allowed to go to chosen second choice, the Carolina Panthers.
White was an extremely successful free agent signing but more the exception than the rule. Many teams have found this out the hard way in the 17 years of NFL free agency.
March winners
Teams that make a lot of noise in March rarely do so in January. The big splash signings of free agency certainly create short-term buzz but reality soon sets in. The team now has the player and his wieldy contract to go along with the expectations the signing has created, which are usually not met.
More often than not, the team and the player sign a long-term contract – for the player to get as much bonus money as possible – only to have the team looking for a way out in a few years. Today’s treasures soon become tomorrow’s trash. Alan Faneca was an example this year; it happens every year.
There have been several years, such as last year with Haynesworth, where the Redskins have “won” March. How’s that worked out for them?
And this is not all about the Redskins. Some of the teams that have reputations of being well managed and careful in their spending have fallen into the free agency trap. Examples include the Packers with Joe Johnson (more to come), the Eagles (Jevon Kearse), the Patriots (Adalius Thomas) and more.
Warnings given
At league meetings and labor seminars every year, the NFL Management Council presents slides illustrating large free agent signings and their negative correlation to winning and producing Pro Bowl players. The league doesn’t tell teams not to sign free agents; that would be collusion. It simply shows data and benefits of a strategy of signing one’s own players rather than someone else’s -- a strategy many teams use.
Why Free Agency rarely works
Football is about schemes, sets, body types, coaching philosophies, etc. Tony Dungy loved fast, small linebackers, Bill Parcells likes big, stout linebackers: the Redskins employed a 4-3 defense last year, a 3-4 this year, etc. Coaching staffs change; players that fit the previous scheme do not fit the present one. And, of course, football players are completely dependent on teammates; the best players play less than half the game.
For these reasons, moving parts are not as seamless as in other sports. A player may look enticing on a board of players eligible for free agency (or the Draft, for that matter) but the question that has to be asked and answered is not how good the player is, but how good the player will be in our system?
In baseball, players pitch, hit and field. In basketball, a couple of players may now change the landscape of the sport. There are no 3-4 defenses, no cover 2s, no west coast offenses, two tight end sets, etc. These sports put free agent players in better position to succeed than football. Football is the ultimate team sport, ironically a reason why free agency has less meaning.
So as LeBron, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade and others decide on their free agency options, there is a much greater chance their salivating suitors will be happy with the acquisition and that it will not end up being a Haynesworth-sized disappointment. There are no Lebron-type free agents in football.
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It does seem that a lot of teams mess up with the big free agent signings . . but what about that second tier of players. As a Vikes fan, where would we have been last year without Ben Leber (FA - San Diego), Visanthe Schiancoe (FA - Giants), Antoine Winfield (FA - Buffalo), Pat Williams (FA - Buffalo), Ryan Longwell (FA - Green Bay) oh and who was that guy . . .#4 (Brett Favre - FA - Jets - ok not a tier 2 player . . .but still a great FA signing)
Wow - I had no idea Reggie had tried to come back to the Packers and was denied; Andrew, why were the Packers not open to his return?
Ted Thompson does sign free agents, he just doesn't piss away money like some other teams.
Ryan Pickett has been a solid player and, of course, Charles Woodson is the reigning NFL defensive player of the year.
By definition teams that need to dip into free agency to fix their lack of depth and drafting prowess shouldn't play in January. Trying to connect the two as a statistical fact doesn't reflect all the other variables that go into why teams succeed or fail.
I hate the term "post child". There are always bad examples to every business deal in the NFL. But that doesn't make the system flawed. Is the idea of "trading" flawed just because Dallas hosed Minnesota for Hershall Walker? Maybe we should outlaw trading picks to protect stupidity from themselves.
You sign Albert Haynesworth to a ludicrous contract, promise to make him the focal point of your defense in your recruiting trip, then fire all the coaches and switch defenses.... well, shame on you. Doesn't make the idea of free agency wrong or needing "fixed". Every free agency system in every sport has a high risk factor. Almost higher than draft picks. For every Albert Hayneworth, I can match you and then some in MLB, NBA and NHL.
And while I agree a change to the value of the top-10 picks in the NFL draft needs done, I wouldn't throw out the baby with the bath water. There are a lot of good things about the NFL draft system: the 5-year 1st round deal, RFA at year 4 at reasonable prices to "negotiate under", free agency at year 5.
I like having some big money (maybe not top-10 at their position, but large by comparison) attached to 1st round picks. I like they are under contract for a long time. It make college kids WANT to be 1st round picks, not enter the draft ASAP and get that rookie contract sitting on the bench out of the way to start making the real money. If 1st rounders are paid like 4th rounders today, no talent would bother staying in school. Every 3-year college player that is rated anything by anyone would just enter the draft. Who cares if I'm drafted in the 5th round? I'm making minimum for those 1st three years anyway and then the money starts. This is exactly what happens in the flawed NBA system.
Having big contracts in round 1 also makes character important. If rookies have no risk for ownership (monetarily), why take character into account? Why not draft that bad seed with all the talent?
People aren't thinking through the whole "rookie contract problems". Everyone's looking at Jamarcus Russell and seeing the problems. But players like Chris Johnson, Lamarr Woodley and countless others are being paid WAY under what they are worth. It's this underpayment of quality players on your team (mid-to-late 1st round picks through round 4) in their rookie deals that allow slight to gross overpayment of veterans all around the league.
The only way the union will allow caps on rookie salaries is with shorter tenure for unrestricted free agency and forcing teams to make quicker decisions on paying young players that second contract.
Fans don't seem to want to consider this other side of the coin. UFA at year 4 in the NFL is not good for fans. The RFA is the best thing going for keeping teams together and somewhat stable. It's the driving force behind almost every well run team in the league (Patriots, Steelers, Eagles). Draft well, bring players along slowly, lock them up with 1-year left on their contracts (or in RFA year) and create a solid core of players for your roster.
Getting rid of that simple philosophy by greatly altering rookie pay scale, length of contracts, when free agency hits, etc. could doom the league and turn it into the NBA very, very easily.
deljzc - dude go write your own column....
VikingFanInWoodbury wrote:
"(Brett Favre - FA - Jets - ok not a tier 2 player . . .but still a great FA signing)"
Granted, he took your team to the NFC Championship.
BUT what happens this year if your team misses the playoffs or advances merely to the 1st or 2nd playoff round?
Will you still believe Favre was a good FA signing?
I think Vikings' fans are forgetting that after Favre exits there's NOTHING in the QB cupboard. Your team has no franchise QB, unlike Chicago and GB and Detroit.
Andrew - did you intend to write more about the Joe Johnson deal? Were involved with that deal when you were with GB?
Regardless of what happens this year, Favre was a great free agent signing. He was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL last year, threw 33 TDS and only 7 INTS and led the team to the NFC Championship. Minnesota doesn't have another good QB, so far is making the team better, i.e. a good signing. The Vikings had one of their best two seasons in the last 25 years. Yes, they should work on developing a young quarterback to take over for Favre, but that is an entirely different issue. The signing of Favre was outstanding, and I'm shocked that anyone would think otherwise.
Andrew - based on your article, do you care to comment on the fortunes of the 2010 NY Jets given their spending binge in free agency this off-season. Seemed like Coach Ryan was acting like a kid in a candy store anytime some vet got signed by their GM Tannebaum. Was reading about how excited he was when Santonio Holmes became available.
Care to speculate on how the next CBA will affect free agency?
Kyle, if I recall, after retiring Reggie sat out an entire season. After not playing for a season, he made inquiries about returning. I think the Packers questioned his potential effectiveness at his age and a season off and turned him down. Reggie went to Carolina and performed in a mediocre manner and spent some time injured. The Packers proved correct on that call, and I believe Reggie later stated that he should have stayed retired.
The Joe Johnson signing was a disaster. That was a key component of GM Mike Sherman churning the Packer roster into a jayvee team.
deion sanders, priest holmes, john runyon, michael turner, asante samuel, eric steinbach,
Lambeau and Pete -
Story of Joe Johnson coming tomorrow, shows how emotion can outpace reason. The Jets have actually not spent much in free agency -- Tomlinson was a wash in releasing Thomas Jones; Cromartie and Holmes were inexpensive trades. Their issues will be in forging chemistry in that locker room, especially if they are not successful.
I have to agree with Vikings Fan in Woodbury; Minnesota has done a spectacular job with free agents and trades--and he didn't even mention Jared Allen, who rung Aaron Rodgers' bell 8-10 times last year even though he may not even be the second-best guy on the D-line.
So what do you all think: is there any NFL team right now better than Minnesota at "building from without"? The Redskins and Raiders, who have pursued a similar strategy, are in far worse shape.
Free agency can be about as effective as teams want it to be should they make wise decisions. Brian Dawkins is working out well for the Broncos and I'm sure Jamal Williams and Justin Bannan will as well.
"and he didn't even mention Jared Allen, who rung Aaron Rodgers' bell 8-10 times last year even though he may not even be the second-best guy on the D-line. "
That's a stretch. You think Allen gets all his sacks because opposing teams are focusing their protection schemes on Ray Edwards? That is who you're implying is second-best, right? Allen is one of the five best defensive players in the league, Ray Edwards is not.
I have to give the Vikes credit - they've done well with second tier free agents, which was Ron Wolf's strategy at the dawn of free agency in the years following the Reggie White signing and pretty much New England's strategy during their rise to elite status in the late 90's, early 00's.
I would argue the Vikes management didn't have much choice since Denny Green's drafting ability pretty much had left the cupboard bare.......
Jared Allen had how many sacks last year? How many of those came against the Packers? 75%? Granted the guy has a non-stop motor, but throw out the Packers extremely suspect O-Line and he statistically had a MARGINAL year, last year.
As to Andrew's post, he's drinking the Ted Thompson Kool Aid. I'm consequently somewhat shocked that Ted went with Russ Ball instead.
I think FA can be an effective supplemental tool if used properly. The Vikings are a classic illustration. I think you can argue that they do it better than anyone. You can't overspend. You can't get in a bidding war. You have to take into account your scheme and your locker room. Finally, I think you have to take some risks. People thought Pat Williams was washed up when the Vikings signed him. People thought Winfield couldn't hold up given his small stature. There were concerns abut Allen's drinking problem. They hit a home run with Koren Robinson for a year before he imploded. Their list of successes goes on and on. Kudos to their front office - and I'm a Packer fan. I'm not at all saying that the Pack should have made a play for Peppers or Haynesworth, but Woodson turned out alright. So did Pickett.
I think the biggest problem with the draft is that you can never tell how a guy is going to react when he's instantly a millionaire. How many of us would simply put it in cruise control and play not to get hurt a la Gabe Wilkins (seriously, you took yourself OUT of the super bowl? REALLY???) How many are playing for more than just a paycheck? Those are the guys you want on your team.
Argentina, I was thinking the Vikings D-line (in order of talent) goes Kevin Williams, Pat Williams, Jared Allen, Ray Edwards right now. Love those fat guys; Pat Williams should be showing his age more, but he's not, really. Plus he'll get to play again because the StarCaps case has been indefinitely postponed.
Bob, I'm a Packer fan, too. It amazes me that the Vikings drafted so poorly for most of a decade but still field such a strong roster.Maybe they've finally wised up; their last draft got two pretty solid offensive starters. And yeah, J. Allen has shown that backup tackles and out of position O-linemen are no match for him. But if Allen turns the Clifton/Bulaga tandem into a turnstile like he did with Colledge/Lang, then he's more legit than I thought. Also, your point about players becoming instant millionaires is huge. Perhaps guys like Woodson, Winfield, Randy Moss,Drew Brees, etc. made enough big money to sort out their finances and then, once they discovered they were set for life, they got to work. In a weird way, it's almost as though it's not about the money at all for the best-compensated players. Crazy.
Free agency is only the HIGH paid cast offs from other teams? TT has not done much in FA? What he has done has been quite good.
Woodson who I think is as big a signing as White was for what he means to the team.
Pickett is also a very good signing. Chillar, Lets look at other FA signings, Williams, Bigby, Havner, Tauscher, Clifton.
When you really look at what Wolf did and TT has done, When I look at what Sherman did { i get that little puke thing in my throat} in Free agency looking at each roster when these moves were made, TT has done well, very well, specially in keeping his own players and adding effective players.
You also have to look at what Free agency is now and when Wolf was signing players.
It's like shopping at a Mercedes dealer then and a Kia dealer today. Free agency was NEW, EVERY player that had been in the NFL for what 6 years then could shop his services to EVERYONE. Today the market is based on a few good players, with castoffs that are at the end of there careers or never was players.
Where I would have liked to see some more second tier signings from TT I am glad he has not jumped into that stupid end of the pool like so many teams do and have it back fire on them.
The Vikings got Jarred Allen in a trade, not free agency.
And calling Favre a 2nd-tier FA is a bit silly considering his $12 million per year salary. And denying that signing him worked out in spades for them is equally silly. I'm a Packer fan and no Favreophile by any means, but... I mean, let's be honest here.
As to Mr. Brandt's article, the thing he could've also mentioned is how an NFL career is different from a career in the other major sports. There are exceptions, but the rule is that an NFL player's prime is usually going to be his first few years in the league. After that, the tendency is for players to decline. Because of this trend, the odds are stacked against successfully signing a free agent in the NFL.
But the comparison between Reggie and Albert was a good point. I thought alot about that when Haynesworth was being courted. Reggie was an absolute sure thing lock to be not just a producer, but a leader too. Reggie was also just a physical freak of nature. God broke the mold when he made Reggie. Arms like my thighs, and thighs like my waist. He was designed to physically overpower people on a football field. Whereas, with Albert, I'm not going to go so far as to say that he was "just a fat guy," because he is a bit more than that. ...but not much more. And with his character red flags, he's not the kind of guy you break the bank for. Reggie White? Yes. Albert? No.
Dan, I put Jared Allen in there just as another smart example of how the Vikings' best moves recently have come from when they build from without and not from within. They picked up their starting center with the pick they got in the Allen trade, too.
I wonder how much athletic training and conditioning alters NFL free agency, where careers are still so short anyway. To pick two close-to-home examples,I don't think anybody thought Woodson would be as great as he is at 34 (with maybe a couple of years left), and NOBODY thought Favre would be as great as he was last year. I mean, let's say Favre plays every game this year and has something like 26 TDs and 12 INTs. Sure, he's old, but wouldn't the Vikings be crazy NOT to try and re-sign him?
Or does the speed of the game and the size and power of everyone else essentially turn the "players are in great shape and take care of themselves" argument into a stalemate, and Woodson and Favre are just goofy exceptions and no sign of a trend? I'm not even talking about HOF talent; Vinny Testaverde was slinging it around in his 40s, too.
Clearly, there are lots of Packer fans looking for some good football chat today...
Yoop - you can't count Bigby and T Williams as Free Agents in the same vein as a Pat Williams or a Antoine Winfield. Those guys weren't even drafted. They didn't spend time on anyone's active roster. Heck, if memory serves, Williams was cut by the ever terrible Texans. So, there we have a compelling argument for scheme as Andrew points out.
Clifton and Tauscher were merely re-signings of players that you had intimate knowledge of. I wouldn't count them, either.
You're right about Chillar, yet the guy can't really win a starting spot. So, there's something that's not quite right there because I think he's a better athlete than Hawk.
I think some people are internally motivated, rather than externally motivated. They push themselves hard to win becuase they don't like to lose. It's not about the money and it never was. Those are the guys we always refer to as "Warriors".
Addison,
Good points.
Yeah, Allen is a valuable addition however they got him. Yeah, Woodson is the exception to the rule. I said there are exceptions. My point was that, on the whole, the deck is stacked against signing a free agent in the NFL and having it work out.
Not sure why you brought up Vinny Testeverde, though. He was a shell of himself for his last five years or so. ...to the point of being a little embarrasing, I'd say. He was really good once upon a time, but those last few years... ugh. Although, on the plus side, they saved the money they might've used making a statue in his honor. They just put him in the game instead!
And, yeah, Favre totally amazed me last year and the Vikes would be crazy not to sign him again. Although he's like McNabb in that he'll get you so far and no further.
Dave on 7/6's comment.
Yes, you are correct.
But a qualification note is that Green Bay would have been foolish to retain Favre and let Rodgers sit for a fourth consecutive season.
Who knows if Rodgers would have allowed such a calamity to occur?
He could have asked for a trade, if GB allowed Favre to return as a starter.
As for MN, yes, I'll agree Favre was a fine signing for 2009-10, BUT who knows if he'll perform well again this year.
I'd suggest "no," if you examine the historical record of his performance in the last 10 years.
Since his MVP seasons, he rarely played well in two consecutive seasons.
That's why I STILL remain convinced that having Favre at QB for MN this season is better for GB long-term because MN is failing to develop a Franchise QB at the expense of hoping Favre has another miracle season left in his tank.
I doubt he does.
To me a Free Agent is a Free Agent no matter where they come from. The GM signs them as a Free agent, Clifton and Tauscher were both FA's, as were all the rest.
The only difference is the price of the contract.
Great article Andrew,
And as you can see by all your responses clearly the most I've ever seen on this blog. You made a very STRONG & VALID point about Free Agency, instead of "Window Shopping" and buying something expensive that you'll regret later why not invest in your own players by retaining them when contracts are up? You know what you're getting there....DUH! It's a very simple concept & one that the 49ers are attempting to do.
Andrew - as a rule of thumb, I tend to agree with you on this subject. I do think you are overlooking the second and third tier guys and the potential impact they can have, however. Was Desmond Howard a first tier FA for Ron Wolf? He was the super bowl MVP and a key in the field position battle all season long. What did SF pay for Ted Ginn? a 5th rounder? bargain. You can argue if he's an effective weapon or not, but you can't argue that the Packers don't have an effective punt returner on the roster that can last a season that's not a starter.
In general, I think Thompson has done a very good job redoing the roster with younger guys with an upside. Yet, I think he tends to undervalue the leadership of a veteran. Sure the guy may be a tad slower in his 40 time than he was coming out, but odds are that he'll read the play a bit faster than the younger player. So, who's going to make that play? Do you think that Johnny Jolly would be in legal trouble with Reggie in the locker room?
As proof of my stance, what happend to the Seahawks the year after Ted came to GB? Yep, they went to the super bowl. It just took a few key guys in a few key spots. I think he, and you are mostly right - but I wouldn't turn a blind eye to FA as it appears Thompson does.
This was an interesting read and I do agree with you, however I would have liked to have seen some statistics supporting your position - perhaps how top free agent spenders have fared in their divisions, playoffs, etc. You mention the detailed data that is shown to NFL management regarding big spending in free agency, yet you reference none of it. I completely agree with you ideas regarding the differences across sports and why free agents aren't an immediate fix in the NFL, but you did little to support this argument other than point out a handful of players that turned out to be poor signings. One could easily develop an opposing argument using this logic. Drew Brees, Charles Woodson, Curtis Martin, Rich Gannon, Kurt Warner, Deion Sanders to name a few. Again, I agree with your stance on free agency, but would have liked to see some more compelling evidence. Thanks for the write up. That is just my food for thought.
This was an interesting read and I do agree with you, however I would have liked to have seen some statistics supporting your position - perhaps how top free agent spenders have fared in their divisions, playoffs, etc. You mention the detailed data that is shown to NFL management regarding big spending in free agency, yet you reference none of it. I completely agree with you ideas regarding the differences across sports and why free agents aren't an immediate fix in the NFL, but you did little to support this argument other than point out a handful of players that turned out to be poor signings. One could easily develop an opposing argument using this logic. Drew Brees, Charles Woodson, Curtis Martin, Rich Gannon, Kurt Warner, Deion Sanders to name a few. Again, I agree with your stance on free agency, but would have liked to see some more compelling evidence. Thanks for the write up. That is just my food for thought.
Yoop...
Clifton and Tauscher were drafted by the Packers (Both in 2000, Cliffy in the 2nd and Tausch in the 7th)...not FA signings. Although technically, Tauscher WAS a FA when he was signed last season...Clifton was never a FA. At least not according to my memory AND the Packers official website. www.packers.com/team/players/
Yoop...
Clifton and Tauscher were drafted by the Packers (Both in 2000, Cliffy in the 2nd and Tausch in the 7th)...not FA signings. Although technically, Tauscher WAS a FA when he was signed last season...Clifton was never a FA. At least not according to my memory AND the Packers official website. www.packers.com/team/players/
This was an interesting read and I do agree with you, however I would have liked to have seen some statistics supporting your position - perhaps how top free agent spenders have fared in their divisions, playoffs, etc. You mention the detailed data that is shown to NFL management regarding big spending in free agency, yet you reference none of it. I completely agree with you ideas regarding the differences across sports and why free agents aren't an immediate fix in the NFL, but you did little to support this argument other than point out a handful of players that turned out to be poor signings. One could easily develop an opposing argument using this logic. Drew Brees, Charles Woodson, Curtis Martin, Rich Gannon, Kurt Warner, Deion Sanders to name a few. Again, I agree with your stance on free agency, but would have liked to see some more compelling evidence. Thanks for the write up. That is just my food for thought.
VikingFanInWoodbury wrote:
"(Brett Favre - FA - Jets - ok not a tier 2 player . . .but still a great FA signing)"
Granted, he took your team to the NFC Championship.
BUT what happens this year if your team misses the playoffs or advances merely to the 1st or 2nd playoff round?
Will you still believe Favre was a good FA signing?
I think Vikings' fans are forgetting that after Favre exits there's NOTHING in the QB cupboard. Your team has no franchise QB, unlike Chicago and GB and Detroit.
____________________________________________________________
One thing has nothing to do with the other. The best teams do build through the draft and develop their own players. Free agency is quite valuable, however, as it allows teams to fill immediate gaps or add complementary pieces to their team. The problem with using Haynesworth as an example of the problems with free agency is that you're talking about a Redskins team that had many issues that needed to be rectified. Instead of bringing in a number of second tier players that would have improved their team in various areas, they spent an enormous amount on a player that was supposed to dramatically improve one area. Even worse, that wasn't even remotely the part of their roster that needed the most improvement. Now, back to the case in point, the Favre acquisition, it's an undeniable fact that he dramatically improved their offense last season. So, he filled his end of the bargain. Whether or not Favre returns this season (pretty sure he will), having Favre on their roster didn't prevent the Vikings from signing a young QB of the future. Even without a high first round pick, they still could have drafted Clausen, one of the best prospects of this year's draft class. They weren't interested in him, however.You can't logically blame free agency or Favre for the Vikings choice to not draft a QB high in the draft. The two issues or separate.
football players are a dime a dozen like nuts bolts and washers. they are all the same. the owners make profits because they can change the parts and they do not notice because they make profits anyway. nfl players are not human beings but i repeat nuts bolts and washers
Hey deljzc ...
Your points on the benifits of NOT having a rookie cap were very interesting and compelling .
I have to admit that I was not prepared to see eye to eye to you on the subject
(Like most fans that want an NFL Rookie Cap , I saw the issue as being black n white )
Thanks for shedding light on the shades of gray in the issue.
I think that a great thing that the NFL has going for it over MLB / NBA is the built in continuality of most teams core players . The players may not like the fact that NFL Free agency is pretty tightly controlled ...
but the fans should .
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Jul 06, 2010
01:55 PM
Great article, Andrew. Ted Thompson of the Packers takes a lot of heat from fans for not dipping into free agency more. Ted prefers to build from within, and I think we're starting to see the nucleus of a pretty good team being put together in Green Bay. Still, there will always be people who believe there is a quick fix out there.