Over the weekend, I talked about why I thought teams would pressure Tom Brady to open the season. I wrote that even a team such as the Buffalo Bills — a defense that relies on Cover 2 as their core call — should adopt a blitzing mentality against the Pats considering how average Brady was in his brief performance against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday.
APWould you blitz Brady in week one after his last outing against the Bengals?
And I bet some of New England’s earlier opponents (Buffalo, NY Jets, Atlanta and Baltimore) are thinking the same thing after watching the tape from that game.
On Saturday night in Chicago, Jay Cutler threw a ball over 60 yards downfield — on the run. The fact that the ball fell incomplete, due mostly to a lack of ball awareness by wide receiver Devin Hester, was inconsequential. This wasn’t just another incompletion from the newsiest QB-WR combo in Chicago because it is now on tape for the rest of the league and the Green Bay Packers — the Bears first regular season opponent — to watch.
You see, NFL teams watch film in four-game cycles. In the middle of the season, you don’t go back to opening weekend to watch opponent’s game film — outside of an exotic play or formation that you need to see — because teams change over the course of a month in this league.
Opposing teams are always looking for tendencies — run versus pass, what they do on third and short compared to third and medium. How they attack in the red zone versus out in the field. How they respond to pressure on third down versus first down. All teams change — in the way they attack opposing offenses, defenses and in the kicking game — in a matter of weeks.
That’s why when opening day comes in the NFL, preseason tape is crucial. Sure, you aren’t going to see an entire game, complete with a week of practice and game planning, but you will see players — how they move, how they react to certain situations and what type of plays they can and cannot make.
Certainly, Brady will have a lot more to work with in the regular season in terms of game preparation, but the Bengals did get to him in the brief time he was on the field. And, because of that, a light bulb will go off in every defensive meeting room of the Patriots’ opponents for the month of September.
APCutler showed the league that he can throw it from anywhere on the field.
Everyone copies each other in the NFL, and if something worked against the Patriots in August — even if it was only for a couple of series on a humid summer night — then it will be practiced, and it will be scripted for the regular season.
Simply, coaches are always looking for ways to produce wins.
The same with teams who play the Bears. This isn’t an offense run by Kyle Orton anymore, and with Cutler showing his arm strength on tape, defensive backs now know that they have to cover all the way down the field — and find a way to stay in front of Hester at all costs.
Take, for example, the Raiders from Saturday night against the 49ers in San Francisco. RB Glen Coffee had a great night (the Niners rushed for 275-yards as a team), just as RB Mike Bell did for the Saints against my Texans.
The result: Both Oakland and Houston will face a heavy dose of the run come September. But, in saying that, what is the answer? Actually, it’s simple: Stop it, end it and contain it.
Teams will blitz New England until they show that they can slide the protection to the side of the pressure, or until Brady demonstrates that he can carve up blitz-man coverage in the backend — like he has be known to do in the past.
APExpect opposing teams to come out running against Williams and the Texans.
Against the Bears, until you show that you can cover when a play breaks down, don’t expect Chicago receivers to stop running their routes. Instead, expect them to turn their routes up field and head for the goal posts when Cutler is out of the pocket.
And, against the Texans and Raiders, expect teams to run first, and pass second, until those respective defenses establish their front seven and force teams into third and long situations.
Yes, just as I detailed last week on the importance of these games to the players, they also carry importance into the regular season when it comes to film study and putting together a game plan.
Whenever you take the field — preseason or regular season — the tape is always rolling, and opponents are always looking for a way to exploit you on Sundays.
The old saying in this league is pretty simple: “The eye in the sky doesn’t lie.”
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The Bears better take a look at the new 3-4 D up in Green Bay on film.... they look like the real deal so far.
Sonny,
That is a good question, but if you are going to pressure Brady you must have a secondary that can play blitz coverage--like the G Men did in '07.
NE has no problem,when they see blitz early in the game, changing the game plan and lining up in empty sets and getting the ball out quickly to their receivers.
And that is why a lot of teams play Cover 2 against the Pats--they don't have the DBs to play press or off-man against the Pats WRs, and they want to prevent the deep ball to Moss.
Thanks
Wassup Matt, I remember you from your Packer days, they claimed you from the Rams if I remember correct. To me Brady doesn't look confident. Maybe it's just rust but his demeanor wasn't like the Tom Brady I have watched in the past.
Northwoods Tom that Packers D does look for real. I'm a little biased being a fan but I haven't seen a Packers defense fly around like this in over 10 years. And it's not just one player, you have Jolly, Jenkins, Chillar, Bishop playing well. My thought has always been if a team is not playing great D to start the preseason, then they will probably be mediocre or average during the year. In the NFL you've got what you got. It's not like basketball where you can add Shaq in the middle of the year. There are a few exceptions like the '07 Giants who started dreadfully and then picked it up. But if your teams defense looks average now, like the Texans and Raiders, they will probably be that way to start the season.
Wassup Matt, I remember you from your Packer days, they claimed you from the Rams if I remember correct. To me Brady doesn't look confident. Maybe it's just rust but his demeanor wasn't like the Tom Brady I have watched in the past.
Northwoods Tom that Packers D does look for real. I'm a little biased being a fan but I haven't seen a Packers defense fly around like this in over 10 years. And it's not just one player, you have Jolly, Jenkins, Chillar, Bishop playing well. My thought has always been if a team is not playing great D to start the preseason, then they will probably be mediocre or average during the year. In the NFL you've got what you got. It's not like basketball where you can add Shaq in the middle of the year. There are a few exceptions like the '07 Giants who started dreadfully and then picked it up. But if your teams defense looks average now, like the Texans and Raiders, they will probably be that way to start the season.
I agree with MB's comments although having cover corners and a good front four, and well executed blitz schemes are the essence of defensive football, not just an against NE strategy. Problem is - as MB mentioned in his third sentence in the comments section - most teams do not have this combination. Note that the NE offense moved the ball easily on the first series but stalled and had to kick a field goal. The next series opened up with a failed recognition of both Brady, the center and right tackle. A Bengal blew through untouched and it crapped the series out.
As for the other mention in this thread - the new Pack D. Too early to tell but they look good. BJ Raji looks for real and absolutely man-handled the Buffalo center.
Go back, and study the film again. The Brady sack was because he missed a basic rush read and mis-positioned right tackle Nick Kazur. The entire basis of your 'analysis' is blown to shreds. Oops. Thanks for reminding us about back to school: 'Hey teacher, I forgot to do my homework. (Duh)
Pete,
Thanks for the comments, and you just said what I explained in my post. Mistake or not in protection, every team that faces the Pats will run that blitz--because it worked.
Teams will watch the tape and do the same thing until it is corrected.
Thanks
Cutler did indeed show the league that he can sling the rock.
Pete, the Pats haven't won a Super Bowl for a while now, and they looked like garbage the other night.
Just deal with it.
Matt:
The pre-season game vs the Bengals for the Patriots was not used to implement their gameplan. The game was used as an evaluation tool for personnel in certain formations, namely how WRs Galloway and Lewis would react in certain 4 formations. I'm sure there is a certain comfort level Brady has to get sitting back in the pocket but to me he looks pretty comfortable and not at all tentative back there and I've seen every snap. I don't think any coach can draw any conclusions from this game film, that will probably happen this week vs the Redskins when they play the all important 3rd preseason game.
As far as the forgettable SB (as a Pats fan). Yes the Giants pressured Brady during the SB but they did so because Brady was hurt, everyone seems to forget that Brady was hurt vs San Diego in the AFC Championship game so he wasn't as moblie back there and then the problem was compounded when RG Neal was hurt in the 1st series. To me that game was decided as much by the Giants offense as it was by the Giants defense, the 16 play 10 min drive in the 1st Qtr set the tone for the game and the Giants had a well executed game plan on both sides of the ball not just defense. To beat the Patriots teams will have to execute on both offense and defense, milking clock and limiting the time the Pats offense is on the field because if you blitz Brady more often than not you will get burned. There are some pretty bad CBs in this league if you look around the rosters.
By the way -- the play everyone is referring to vs the Bengals and the one that was all over espn, RT Kazcur's "missed" block where Brady got hit was actually supposed to be a draw play, it was a play botched call. Again, it's preseason and this is where communication issues get worked out -- that's what these games are for.
Thanks Nikos. I came across the Herald article where they said that the blown play was supposed to be a draw, which is inexcuable but sort of puts the second drive in perspective. That said, I've agreed with some of what MB has said, however hitting/blitizing QBs is a general path to success in the NFL, not just beating a particular team. Again, success is strategy and the players to execute the strategy and most teams cannot cover and use front line pressure at the same time. Also, another nice observation by Nikos - which I had forgotten in trying to block out the SB v. Giants - is that the Giant's offense controlled the ball effectively. Great pressure defense and ball control offense has always been an obvious key to winning and not everyone has the players to execute the formula. The Giants had the right ingredients yet still needed a historically spectacular catch to beat the 07 version of NE. The great irony in that SB and the current rumblings in how to beat the current iteration of the Pats is that it is the same way Belichik gained the label of great coach (stopping the K Gun Bills and Greatest Show Rams).
Matt... love your writing. You have a great insight to behind the real scenes in the NFL... Also remember your brief Packer career and can understand why you summer in Lake Geneva, having grown up in the area and celebrating all of the big birthdays (18-21) downtown during the summer.
A lot of teams have Vanilla game plans in the preseason... how much stock does that play in gameplanning... When it shows up in the regular season, when the games count, you show a lot more... I am concerned that the Pack is just less vanilla than everyone right now, but sitting in the third row at Lambeau on Saturday wants to make me a believer!
Pre-season game tape illustrates individual player execution, not scheme. What D coordinators SHOULD be taking out of the game were how individual player strengths and weaknesses may have changed since their last tape.
Cutler had a cannon. Cutler has a cannon. - No change.
Brady was outstanding at blitz reads. Brady has missed a single blitz read. -Small change. Try exploiting same read with identical look, DIFFERENT attack.
Sure you put in the same play and try it once if no one else has done so first, just because its the NFL, and you have to prove you've corrected the mistake. Belichick and Brady are elite specifically because they can correct mistakes that other teams have tape on. If any D coordinator actually expects Brady to miss the read again, he should be fired for incompetence. Really he should be evolving and getting ahead of the tape.
Sorry but many of you need to think before commenting because you sound like @#%^. What Matt is saying is that the primary tool teams use to study upcoming opponents is the 3-4 most recent games of tape that are available on that opponent. Doesn't matter if it's pre-season or not, it's the only stuff that exists that might offer a clue.
Will it necessarily be accurate? No, and Matt isn't saying it will be - he's just saying that teams are going to look at the tape and they will try what worked for someone else on tape.
Yo, Teach! Why are teams staying away from Marvin Harrison? Would the Bear's young receiving core benefit from having a veteran HOF receiver on the team?
Scott M.
No offense, but Matt Bowen, good writer, and former player that he is, isn't the final and definitive voice for NFL film study.
Just about Every year, I've heard Bill Belichick talk about the fact that when preparing for a team at the beginning of a season that the Patriots don't see a lot of, especially one with turnover at the coordinator position or skill positions, they'll look at tape from all over the place, college jobs, other NFL jobs, etc to get a feel for what they like to do with different types of players, and what calls they like to make in situational football. They'll also look at individual tape of players from different schemes, going back years if they're in a new system.
What do you think Pats DBs are watching in preparation for their opener against the bills? 3-4 preseason games without TO, or the last 3 years of Pats v Bills, plus every look of TO against the Pats that exists, plus situational splits?
If Matt Bowen knows more about film study than Belichick, NFP is about to get into serious trouble with Roger Goddell for illegal taping procedures.
Matt - Glad you mentioned that the Giants' pass coverage scheme and execution were a significant factor in their SB win. I think that's often overlooked. Similarly, Nikos' point about the Giants' offense controlling the ball and the clock.
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Aug 24, 2009
08:09 AM
Matt,
Why would any team go away from blitzing Brady now? The last time Brady played a whole game, the Giants brought the heat and were successful. Why wouldn't everyone do that? If you sit back, you'll be picked apart so what do you have to lose?