Your 2013 playbook for betting the NFL draft

You didn’t click on this article to read a fancy introduction, so we’ll go ahead and get right down to business.

Best of luck to everyone tonight.

Over/Under on how many players from the ACC will be drafted in the first round: 4

Over: -135
Under: +105
Where to play it: The Greek.com
Pick: OVER (-135)

Analysis: This line moved from -115 both ways to where it is now just minutes after we fired on the OVER. We’ve got UNC offensive guard Jonathan Cooper and Florida State cornerback Xavier Rhodes as first round locks, so that gives us two. And there is a very good chance that UNC defensive tackle Sylvester Williams and Florida State defensive end Bjoern Werner hear their names called on Thursday night as well. That’s four. Throw Clemson wideout DeAndre Hopkins, FSU defensive end Tank Carradine and FSU offensive tackle Menelik Watson into the mix, and OVER bettors now have a grand total of seven ACC players with a solid shot at becoming first round selections. We feel a push in this spot is the worst-case scenario.

Over/Under on how many players from the PAC 12 will be drafted in the first round: 4

Over: -115
Under: -115
Where to play it: The Greek.com
Pick: OVER (-115)

Analysis: We’ve got Oregon DE Dion Jordan, Washington CB Desmond Trufant and Utah DT Star Lotulelei as first round locks. That’s three. Other PAC 12 players with a shot at the first round are California WR Keenan Allen, UCLA DE Datone Jones, Oregon OT Kyle Long and USC WR Robert Woods. We just need one player from that second group to give us a push on this bet, which is why we’re backing the OVER.

Over/Under on how many wide receivers will be drafted in the first round: 3.5

Over: +100
Under: -130
Where to play it: BetOnline.com
Pick: OVER (+100)

Analysis: Between wide receivers Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter, Cordarrelle Patterson, Robert Woods and Keenan Allen, and wide receiver-hungry teams Buffalo, the New York Jets, St. Louis, Minnesota, Houston and New England (to name a few), we feel confident that four pass-catchers will hear their names called on Thursday night.

Will Clemson wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins be drafted during the first round?

Yes: -160
No: +130
Where to play it: BetOnline.com
Pick: YES (-160)

Analysis: Another line that has been moving in our direction, look for Hopkins to fly off the board at No. 16 when the St. Louis Rams hit the clock. Jeff Fisher and company are in desperate need of a wide receiver, but are willing to trade down from their second first-round selection (No. 22). If that’s the case, the Rams have to pull the trigger on a wideout at No. 16 because this team can’t afford to conclude Thursday evening by failing to address their most pressing concern. West Virginia’s Tavon Austin would be the pick at No. 16 if he’s still on the board, but we think he’ll be long gone by that point, making Hopkins the selection.

Which player will be drafted first: Justin Hunter (-250) vs. DeAndre Hopkins (+170)

Where to play it: Bovada.LV
Pick: Hopkins (+170)

Analysis: See above analysis: Bottom line: We believe Hopkins is the pick at No. 16 for St. Louis, assuming Tavon Austin is already off the board.

Over/Under on how many tight ends will be selected in the first round: 1.5

Over: +210
Under: -290
Where to play it: 5dimes.com
Pick: UNDER (-290)

Analysis: Notre Dame’s Tyler Eifert is a smash to go in the first round, but that’s where the Thursday night party ends for the tight end position. Some feel that Stanford’s Zach Ertz could land in San Francisco at No. 31 since 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh recruited him out of high school. But the Niners are looking to trade up for a defensive lineman, which means that Ertz will have to wait until Friday to find out where he’ll be playing next year.

Will Stanford tight end Zach Ertz be drafted during the first round?

Yes: +240
No: -300
Where to play it: BetOnline.com
Pick: NO (-300)

Analysis: If we’re going to play UNDER 1.5 tight ends to be drafted during the first round, we might as well fade Ertz in this spot as well. He’s the only tight end other than Tyler Eifert who has a chance to be drafted Thursday night…and it’s a long shot that he hears his name called.

Over/Under on how many quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round: 1

Over: -240
Under: +200
Where to play it: The Greek.com
Pick: OVER (-240)

Analysis: This is a free bet. Between Ryan Nassib (rumored to go to the Bills at No. 8) and Geno Smith, there is absolutely no chance we make it through Thursday evening without a single quarterback hearing his name called. Remember, while most mock drafts may not have two signal-callers getting selected within the first 32 picks, many of those mocks fail to account for trades. Don’t be surprised if an organization swings a deal to get back into the latter part of the first round to grab a quarterback. Again, the worst-case scenario here is a push.

Note: This bet has since been taken off the board.

Will Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te’o be drafted during the first round?

Yes: -300
No: +240
Where to play it: BetOnline.com
Pick: YES (-300)

Analysis: You’ve got to lay a lot of lumber on this one, but between the rumors circulating that Minnesota (who owns two draft picks in the first round) and Chicago are both highly interested in the Fighting Irish linebacker, along with the fact that Baltimore could be in the market at No. 32, we don’t see Te’o slipping out of the first round.

Which player will be drafted first: Luke Joeckel (-200) vs. Eric Fisher (+150)

Where to play it: Bovada.LV
Pick: Fisher (+150)

Analysis: While nothing has been made official as of the current moment, Jay Glazer of Fox Sports stated Wednesday evening that if the Kansas City Chiefs do not trade out of the No. 1 pick, he believes the organization will select Central Michigan offensive tackle Eric Fisher over Texas A&M offensive tackle Luke Joeckel. Frankly, we’re surprised that Fisher is still listed as such a big underdog here, as Glazer is one of the best scoop men in the business.

Note: This prop has since been taken off the board.

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

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