BCS analysis: Ducks still sitting pretty
If the 2013 college football regular season ended today, Alabama and Florida State would meet in Pasadena for the final BCS national title, according to the first set of BCS standings released on Sunday evening.
The USA Today and Harris polls each count toward one-third of the BCS calculations. A composite ranking of six computers make up the final third.
Below is the full set of rankings:
1. Alabama .9841
2. Florida State .9348
3. Oregon .9320
4. Ohio State .8553
5. Missouri .8219
6. Stanford .7414
7. Miami (FL) .7200
8. Baylor .7120
9. Clemson .6249
10. Texas Tech .6220
11. Auburn .5058
12. UCLA .4807
13. LSU .4552
14. Virginia Tech .4408
15. Oklahoma .4204
16. Texas A&M .3666
17. Fresno State .3379
18. Northern Illinois .3032
19. Oklahoma State .2687
20. Louisville .2556
21. South Carolina .2161
22. Michigan .1637
23. Central Florida .1394
24. Nebraska .1354
25. Oregon State .1042
So what does this all mean?
US PRESSWIREWill Jameis Winston and the 'Noles get to Pasadena?
Well, nothing as of now because there is a ton of football to be played.
Oregon fans really have no need to worry because both human polls that are used in the BCS calculations have the Ducks second and the Seminoles third, but the computer component of the standings give Jimbo Fisher's squad the advantage. Looking at the big picture, Oregon is in a much better spot than Florida State. The Ducks have a big advantage in the polls, while the Seminoles' computer ranking (the best overall computer ranking among all teams) won't hold up as strongly against Oregon's because the Ducks have three remaining opponents that currently reside in the BCS Top 25. That is huge for their rating moving forward assuming they win, of course. The computers currently rank Oregon fourth. The only chance the 'Noles have to stay at No. 2 is to gain ground in the human polls. But that doesn't seem too likely. What the 'Noles did to Clemson could have been enough to put them No. 2 in the polls over the Ducks. But it wasn't. So if both Alabama and Oregon win out, the Crimson Tide and the Ducks should play for the crystal football.
How does Missouri's resume stack up? Well, if Gary Pinkel's squad wins out, the Tigers will have more quality wins than Ohio State, which could be primed to go undefeated for the second straight year. The Buckeyes just didn't have the nonconference schedule to help out their overall slate, though, which will be the one issue that may be too much for OSU to overcome — if we have more than two undefeated teams, of course. The Tigers will continue to have a stronger computer rating, but will the voters move them above the Buckeyes in the human polls? If Mizzou continues to win, including in a potential SEC title game, there is almost no doubt that the Tigers would move ahead of the Buckeyes.
Almost all of the voters have Alabama at No. 1 and Oregon at No. 2, and a lot of that has to do with the recent history of those two programs, fair or not. And, in my opinion, it will be hard for many voters to not rank those two teams Nos. 1 and 2 no matter which other squads have unblemished marks because that is the dream matchup that most want to see eventually occur. Nick Saban's defense going up against the high-octane offense of the Ducks.
When it comes to the Big 12, while it isn't the strongest conference, I still believe that it is viewed stronger than the Big Ten. Could Baylor and Texas Tech pass Ohio State in the human polls? Maybe. But it will be basically impossible for the Bears and Red Raiders to pass an undefeated Alabama, Oregon or Florida State.
Meanwhile, Stanford is the top one-loss team in the initial set of BCS standings. The Cardinal are ahead of Miami (FL) and Baylor, two teams with perfect records. The Cardinal obviously will need help to get to the BCS title game, but the loss to Utah does not have the Cardinal out of the national championship picture quite yet.
Of course, we can speculate all day long about possible BCS scenarios. But as we saw this past week, nothing is certain in college football. So it's better to just enjoy the season and let the chips fall where they may by the end of the year.
Dave Miller, the college football editor and writer for the National Football Post, is on Twitter @Miller_Dave.
