FROM WES BUNTING:
One of the biggest misconceptions that emerge from the NFL Combine each year is the importance of 40-yard dash times. The 40 is the considered the glamour event of the Combine, and every year NFL executives, scouts, draftniks and fans (including me) get carried away by some of the mind-boggling times. This often puts too much value on a player’s ability to run fast more than it does his pure football talent. Am I saying that the testing at the Combine isn’t important? No, but the test needs to be evaluated more from a football-related standpoint.
One of the most important and consistently overlooked measurements at the Combine is the first 10 yards of the 40, known as the 10-yard split. This is simply a measurement to see how fast a prospect can cover 10 yards. It’s great to see how fast someone can run 40 yards, but how often in an NFL game are players required to cover that distance on one play? A more reasonable measurement, and a better indicator of “football speed,” is 10 yards.
A 10-yard split measures the short-area burst of an NFL prospect and allows scouts to determine if the prospect is a two-stepper (a player who can get up to full speed in two steps) or a strider (a player who needs to hit full stride to reach his top speed). Since football players as a whole are consistently forced to explode in and out of their breaks throughout the game, short-area explosion is a pivotal reflection of a player’s overall “football speed.”
The 10-yard split is a vital time gauge for every position in the NFL, but it’s arguably more important for edge pass rushers than other positions. Pure pass rushing specialists who rely on their first step to gain an advantage on offensive tackles need to display explosive first-step quickness out of the stance. Therefore, the timing of a pass rusher’s 10-yard split is an excellent indicator of how quickly he can explode off the ball and cover the ground needed to get after the quarterback. So to put this into perspective, I broke down some of this year’s top hybrid defensive end/outside linebackers to give you an idea what prospects’ 10-yard splits are NFL-worthy and what prospects’ fast 40 times are simply a mirage.
To put the 10-yard splits into perspective, I constructed a range of times using only the DE/OLB position.
Note: NFL Combine times as a whole have gone down dramatically each of the past couple of years, so the most relevant times are those from the past three years.
A “Great” 10-Yard Split Time (1.55 seconds and under)
Cliff Avril, Lions: 1.50 (2008)
Chris Long, Rams: 1.53 (2008)
A “Good” 10-Yard Split Time (1.56-159)
Gaines Adams, Buccaneers: 1.58 (2007)
Derrick Harvey, Jaguars: 1.59 (2008)
An “Average” 10-Yard Split Time (1.6-1.62)
Kamerion Wimbley, Browns: 1.6 (2006)
Bruce Davis, Steelers: 1.62 (2008)
Below Average 10-Yard Split Times (1.63-1.69)
Charles Johnson, Panthers: 1.63 (2007)
Anthony Spencer, Cowboys: 1.64 (2007)
With an eye toward the 2009 draft class, we can now rank the nation’s top pass rushing DE/OLB hybrids according to their 10-yard split times and break down what each time means.
1. Clay Matthews, USC (6-3, 240), 10-yard split: 1.49
Matthews made the jaws of a couple scouts drop after he posted a time of 1.49 seconds in his 10-yard split. To put it into perspective, only nine cornerbacks at the Combine ran faster. Matthews obviously possesses an explosive first step and gets up to speed very quickly. He’s proven he has the burst to rush off the edge, which is one reason he’s considered among the nation’s top 3-4 outside linebacker prospects.
2. Aaron Maybin, Penn State (6-4, 249), 10-yard split: 1.55
It’s obvious on tape that Maybin possesses an explosive first step off the edge. However, what makes him even tougher to block is his ability to consistently be the first defensive lineman moving off the snap and consistently firing off the ball on time. Maybin didn’t have the 40 time many expected (4.79), but his 10-yard split proved he has the first step to reach the edge.
3. Connor Barwin, Cincinnati (6-4, 256), 10-yard split: 1.57
His 4.59 40 time got all the attention, but Barwin’s ability to coil up in his stance and fire off the ball will make him a success in the NFL. He’s a gifted athlete who has the motor and burst to get after the quarterback. However, his 1.57 split proves he has the first-step explosion to make things happen as a down defensive end.
4. Everette Brown, Florida State (6-2, 256), 10-yard split: 1.58
Brown measured in a bit shorter than expected at the Combine but ran well, even though I expected his split to be a bit faster. However, Brown plays so low that it’s tough for offensive tackles to get a good punch on him. Brown isn’t just a straight-line athlete; his ability to bend and dip around the edge coupled with his burst allows him to create a lot of havoc versus the pass.
5. Clint Sintim, Virginia (6-3, 256), 10-yard split: 1.59
Sintim displays impressive get-off speed for his size and showcases good explosion from a two-point stance. There isn’t much flash to his game, but he has enough burst to be a solid contributor off the edge and get after the passer.
6. Larry English, Northern Illinois (6-2, 255), 10-yard split: 1.64
I worried about English’s ability to coil up and fire out of his stance on film, and his time confirms my suspicions. He consistently comes off the ball too high for my liking, and I don’t think he has the burst to be successful as a pass rushing defensive end. English needs to stand up in a two-point stance to be effective, but his 4.82 40 time doesn’t do much for teams concerned about his ability to play in space.
Overall, the 10-yard split is simply another tool to help scouts determine the caliber of player they’re evaluating. Now, I would not consider the 10-yard split to be the end all of evaluations for pass rushers because there are always expectations and other athletic tests to help evaluate them (short shuttle and three-cone drills). However, when scouting pass rushers, I think it’s critical to put more weight on the 10-yard split than a more attractive 40-yard time.
Wow...I thought this was supposed to be "Expert" advice. Do you have any more "inside" secrets into drafting the next Lawrence Taylor? I think even Kiper could figure out rarely a player in the NFL runs unobstructed for 40 yards...
Wes, when is the new mock coming out? We're antsy!
I knew the first 10 yards were definitely important and used for offensive lineman, but I am glad to see this explained further and quantified.
You keep bringing great stuff Wes!
Another great article Wes, this is something I have heard about for a while but never understood. Thanks for the details. Is there a baseline for each position? For example I have a 10 and 20 split for each Hawkeye who participated in the combine. I always heard that the 10 was more important to Olineman than any other position in the draft.
Don't see Orakpo on your list. Is he slow off the ball and maybe overrated?
This was another good, informative article.
I feel like everytime I read the Post I become a better football fan.
Does this mean Matthews won't be around at #23?
Don-
Nice comment. Go find another web site that offers this kinf of stuff...
You are lame dude.
Spud: Yes there is a baseline for each position, however, it is being adjusted every year because of the faster times being produced at every position.
broo: No, Orakpo ran well, i just see him more of a DE then OLB so I kept him off the list. His ten-yard split was 1.58.
Jared: I think Matthews comes off the board anywhere from 20-28
Maineman: great call! Never even thought of that but that is a great point.
This difference is also meaningful in terms of "hitting ability." A 240-lb guy who covers 10 yards in 1.49 seconds has as much momentum going as a 265-lb guy who covers the same 10 yards in 1.64 seconds.
So, potentially the same amount of energy transferred to the ball carrier .15 seconds sooner sounds like a recipe for a couple more forced fumbles.
Aaron: Mock Draft Monday
Just make it past the weekend and I will take care of ya!!!
Thanks for reading!
Those times still don't mean a whole lot. First of all the stance they're using is a coached up track stance. The technique required (using a stance which you'll never use in the NFL), and coaching received has a lot to do with who's successful and who isn't. Two years ago Eric Weddle ran in the 1.4 second x 10 yd range. Does he play anything like that? Second, and more importantly, the combine sprints don't require one to react before they move. Reaction time (which is required in the NFL), can vary by as much as .3 between individuals. Player A might run a 1.4 second 10 and take .4 seconds to react to the snap. Player B might run a 1.65 second 10 and beat player A to the ball on account of being able to react in .15 seconds.
A simple reaction time test would allow you to see who's 10 yd times are likely to carry over and who's aren't. Here's a very simple one: http://getyourwebsitehere.com/jswb/rttest01.html
Certain drills do have relevance and correlation to success for certain positions. Pat Kirwan has his index where he adds the scores for Vertical Jump, Broad Jump, and Bench reps. He's looking for players who score over 70. Not a useful tool across all positions, but it is pretty good for edge rushers. Does seem a bit arbitrary and redundant with the vertical and broad. I'm wondering what it would look like if the Broad Jump were dropped in favor of the 10yd Split(times ~20 for adjusted weighting).
Oops, that weighting thing obviously won't work.
Where can we see listings of 10 yard split results for other position groups, like RB or CB?
Wes, what about the "consensus" top LB, Aaron Curry? Where did he split?
Curry was 1.53
Thanks Wes, great stuff as always. Keep doing what you are doing!
I am quite skeptical that the time elapsed over ten yards can be measured with precision to hundredths of a second. Aside from the reaction and start issues mentioned in this thread above, I'd like to know what kind of precision instrumentation is used to calculate these times. I guess I can buy that the NFL has sufficient tech equipment at the Combine, but would bet that at Pro Days we're dealing with guys holding stopwatches.
Wes, can you give us the time for Vernon Gholston?
Two drafts ago Tuna Parcells sat with Al Davis during the combine and discussed how important the first ten yards of 40 time was.
Doesn't the standing long jump also help measure explosion?
You posted Matthews' best hand held time of 1.49 in the 10 yd split, when his electronic time in the 10 yd was 1.61
As for Sintim, you post his time as 1.59. His best hand held time was 1.55 and his electronic time was 1.65. None of his 4 hand held or two ETs at the combine was 1.59
It to me makes the numbers skewed to favor Matthews and to not show Sintim in his best light.
Curry's best time in the 10 was 1.50
His ET was 1.61
Dutch Engstrom: We use the times of different scouts in the NFL as well as some VERY reliable sources outside of those scouts. These are the times I trust as well as the ones I am sticking with.
Size counts too.
Matthews dropped weight to get faster for Indy. I'm sure he's not the only one. However, there are few durable 240# edge rushers. Similar case for Maybin, but not so much. Best comparison is between the mid-250 guys. Tough break for English.
10 yard is a tell, but not a tell-all. In 2007, Brian Robison did 1.50 at ~260#. He's a nice package/ST player and as such decent value at R4 but we don't want to elevate guys off any one marker. Not that Wes is doing that, just sayin'...
"Doesn’t the standing long jump also help measure explosion?"
That and especially vertical, Bill Walsh's favorite.
Aside from 10 yard time, the top 3 tests correlating with future edge rush success are: the two jumps and cone.
Taken across the years, (not just this one) Barwin is a top performer in all 3 tests; Maybin and Michael Johnson in both jumps and Matthews in cone...and 10.
As to 10: Sidbury got off at about 1.53, iirc. Weighed +260. However, his other correlatives were nothing special; ok/not great. Superior frame tho.
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Mar 11, 2009
12:04 PM
Really impressive stuff Wes!
The research, the breakdown the whole idea of the piece is phenomenal. This is definitely a high level NFL thought process.
Very Well Done