Crabtree: Boom Or Bust?

Nice read Matt. Although I am one of the fans out there who thinks Crabtree is a lock, this column made me think.

Plus, I remember David Terrell for the Bear.

That was a bust.

Great stat on top-10 wide receivers. Way too much at stake with a top 10 pick to gamble on Crabtree, IMO.

Would never draft a WR from a spread offense in the top ten...

That offense delays the development of receivers.

I think Crabtree has the tools to overcome the obstacles you lay out Matt, but I also agree that he's no lock, as so many pundits want to claim. He has a long, hard road ahead of him to adjust to the rigors of the NFL. His injury issues with his foot really worry me, too. I like Jeremy Maclin the best of all the first round prospects in this draft, even though he also played in a spread offense and is more raw than Crabtree as a route runner, because he displayed more versatility in college, and has done well in intelligence testing and interviews. I don't think the transition to learning complex schemes and dealing with more physical corners will hamper him as much.

Oh, and in your first bullet point, it really should read, "In college, the corner play is far below average (for the NFL)."

I believe most would agree that, as a unit, the Packers have a top 10 receiver corps (although TE. . .). Second round picks or lower.

Excellent breakdown from an NFL defensive backs perspective, Matt -

Another thing to be said about taking a receiver early is if you want the man, you have to go get the man -

As Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are arguably the three top receivers in the NFL today -

Matt - I scanned your article quickly due to time. Great read as usual.

About the scouting if a high WR prospect can overcome press coverage in the pros.....couldn't teams evaluate that themselves by using their own physical corners against them in private workouts & seeing how they react?

Interesting points you bring up but I am confident Crabtree will not be a bust. Keep in mind Wes Welker came from this same "gimmicky" offense and went undrafted. Crabtree has far better athletic ability then Welker and shattered all kind of records in his 2 years at Texas Tech.

To say that a WR who has struggled with injury yet still averaged 56.2 Rec, 816.4 yards & 6 TDs a year is a “bust” is bit harsh IMO. Those are “Tier 3 WR” fantasy numbers. From ’00-’07 the 30th WR in the NFL has averaged 59.46 Rec, 811.61 yards & 5.57 TDs. Arguing that taking a WR in the top 10 is a “crapshoot” isn’t taking into account that the draft as a whole is a “crapshoot”. Look at the QBs taken in the top 10 over the same time period:
–s: Carr, Harrington, Leftwich, A. Smith, Young, Leinart
+s: Palmer, E. Manning, Rivers
?s: Russell, Vick (Don’t ya think Atl. wishes they drafted Tomlinson???)

Their 36.36% rate of success is worse than the 40% for WRs…

Running backs are better (66.6%) however:
Have nots: Benson & Williams
Haves: Peterson, Tomlinson, J. Lewis, T. Jones. Bush & Brown
???: McFadden

I’m pretty sure that this holds true for almost all positions (about a 50% “bust” rate).
So… what I was trying to allude to earlier “hitting” only about 40% of the time in an event that you only hit about 50% of the time isn’t really outside of the norm. It is just what happens…

He landed ten to San Fran on my mock, before that he was going to Denver at twelve(but they are set @ the position, drafting there might provide leverage for the Broncs and make him affordable). Plus it could motivate Marshall and spot his suspension if they appeal it, giving Crabtree the time to learn the position and system before letting him start four games. If he shines then move the other headache there.

The thought of him playing the Black Hole could be a lot of fun, of course. Throw Crabbie Patties at the DB from there, dressed as some kind warped version of a Sponge Bob character....

see what off seasons do to us as Raiders fan?

He is a fit for Denver's new system as someone mentions(Welker) and there or NOLA, where the WR can be freed from the press off the bunch, motion or trips, is ideal. Drew Brees would throw that ball to him likes it's his baby, so Crab would never drop it.

He mostly ran four routes, the primary branches of any WR route tree.
Most isolation/Turner offenses branch the route off based on defensive reads.

Crab has read the defense more than most WR are asked. It's a matter of injury, height, of playing vs. Dime coverage every down that has teams having to project what his results will be.

Does a team with coaching input to draft evaluations look harder his way?

The Niners have a younger GM and those guys tend to draft needs based first, WR needs a boost there.

Of your six "factors" influencing the success or failure of a highly drafted WR, three would apply to any position (playbook, length of season, athletic ability). The "diva factor" isn't really a factor at all. As you noted, some players are divas coming out of college and manage to succeed (Keyshawn etc.).

Secondly, I think your calculation of top ten "busts"; is a little skewed. Roy Williams had four solid seasons playing for a train wreck in Detroit, including 1300 yards in 2006. How is he a bust, but not Braylon Edwards, whose stats are almost identical?

Koren Robinson had a 1200 yard season in Seattle his second year, before his issues caught up with him. Didn't have anything to do with "press coverage." He was a successful NFL reciever.


Point being, your 65% bust factor is actually alot closer to 50%, or a little less. Probably about the same success factor as most other positions, with the possible exception of OL.

As for your point about making Crabtree the highest paid WR in the NFL, I'm not really sure how you are calculating that. Is it because he will recieve a large signing bonus THIS YEAR. I don't see the Number 5 pick exceeding Fitzgerald's 10 mil average.

Also, the same thing can be said about Aaron Curry. If he get's drafted in the top 5 he will undoubtedly be the highest paid non rushing middle linebacker in the NFL. That's not a critique of the risk of his position, its a critique of the failure to get a rookie wage scale.

Pretty shoddy work on the whole, Matt.

This analysis changes a lot if you simply go to Top 5 WRs. That's actually a safer list than drafting a LT in the Top 5.

Crabtree's attitude may end up being a problem. None of that physical stuff will be. Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson (not to mention some lower drafted physical comparables like Boldin and Colston) dominated defenders as rookies and would have had huge numbers if not for missing big chunks due to injuries. Even the biggest Top 5 bust, Charles Rogers, looked like an explosive TD-catching machine before he broke his collarbone the first time.