Diner Morning News: Dolphins' Playoff Chances

QUOTE: “No matter what talent an individual possesses, what energy he might have, no matter how much integrity and how much honesty he might have, if he is by himself, and particularly a political figure, he can accomplish very little.” -- Robert F. Kennedy, Atlantic City, N.J. (Aug. 27, 1964)

FROM DAVID HYDE FROM THE FLORIDA SUN SENTINEL... I'm not saying Ginn is a No. 1 receiving talent yet. That'll have to play out. But if it's not him, there isn't another one on the roster right now. One question: As mentioned, Sparano singled out Ginn as one of the top players to improve from last season. He wouldn't name the other. Any guesses? My guess is based on the admittedly small-sample-sized view of two practices (and the fact Sparano wouldn't name the other guy): Chad Henne. He looks quicker. Looks more confident. He's also throwing a very good ball.

The Dolphins were the real surprise team of 2008, winning the AFC East after suffering a 1-15 season in 2007. The turnaround was a huge surprise, considering that at one point they were 2-4 and had lost 20 of 21 games. Then they won nine of the next 10 -- tying them with the 1999 Indy Colts for the best turnaround in NFL history. Who saw this coming? No one.

This year, expectations are running high in Miami, but there’s a sense in the NFL that they won’t return to the playoffs, that last year was an aberration. Every year, it seems, half the playoff teams from the previous season don’t return. Are the Fins one of them? Let’s look.

WHY THEY CAN RETURN

Miami can return because no other team can protect the football as well as the Dolphins. In large part, this is because they know who they are as a team -- they don’ try to do things that don’t fit their style or personality. The Dolphins have what I call “Product Quality Control,” which comes from having Bill Parcells sitting in the big office and reminding the coaches to “do what we do best -- know who we are.” Last year, they had a plus-17 turnover exchange. They also missed only four field goals in 25 attempts (which are turnovers), and their opponents missed three, so they were minus-one in that area. They protect the ball in all phases of the game, so don’t expect this to change in 2009.

Each week in game plan meetings, coaches on both sides of the ball will put in “plays” that they like to work each week. In Miami, however, they focus on what it will take to “win” (I hate the saying, “what we like this week”; I prefer “what will take to win this week”). For example, what are the four or five critical aspects of the game, in all three phases, that must be accomplished in order for Miami to be in position to win the game? You might beat the Dolphins next season, but it will require hard work and careful game planning along with solid execution.

Miami won last year because of its attention to detail and its ability to play well in the red zone on defense, making it very hard for the opponent to score touchdowns. Forgot all the defensive yard stats; pay close attention to who plays great defense in the red zone – that’s where you’ll find a team in every game. Miami ranked ninth in points allowed last year because of its red zone performance.

Conversely, when the Dolphins moved the ball into the red zone, they scored touchdowns; they ranked seventh in this area. So they’re good at keeping opponents from scoring along with being very good at finishing drives. This is what makes a team effective.

The Fins might not have been very talented at wide receiver last season, but they rarely dropped passes. They finished fourth in the NFL in dropped passes, which for me is a huge statistic. (Side note: Back in the 1980s, everyone in college football wanted to install the BYU offense, but the missing aspect of the attack was that they rarely dropped passes. It’s in the execution, not in the plays.) The Dolphins may not have been talented at wideout, but they could execute. Expect them to execute again this year.

The Dolphins have quality execution. They protect the football. They also have some very talented young defensive linemen who will show marked improvement this year. They rarely have injuries, they practice all the time as a total team (teams that avoid injuries allow the practice time, which allows teams to keep their pad level down late in the year, which ultimately hurts football teams late in the season). All these factors make the Dolphins a tough team in 2009.

WHY THEY CAN’T DUPLICATE THE ‘08 SEASON

The schedule will get tougher: Along with playing the AFC East, they have to play the AFC/NFC South teams. In fact, after the first week of December, all their remaining games will be against non-AFC East teams but AFC teams nonetheless. Their final six games of the regular season are against AFC teams, which leaves them little margin for error in any tie-breaker scenario. But one area of the schedule that does help the Dolphins is that they avoid cold-weather games -- their two road games in December are in Jacksonville and Tennessee.

They will not make it back to the playoffs next season if they don’t improve their vertical field position as a result of bad special teams play. They allowed over 13 yards per punt return and over 24 yards on kickoff returns last season. These are the kinds of hidden yards that place stress on a defense. To improve in these areas requires an improvement in the bottom of the roster; players from 35-45 need to show more talent in space making tackles. This weakness goes hand in hand with the Dolphins not being able to tackle well in the secondary. They ranked 29th in the NFL in allowing yards after the catch. The Fins have to become a better tackling team in all phases of the games (this weakness is understood when taking over a 1-15 team; it’s hard to improve the whole roster in year one).

SO CAN THEY?

The Dolphins are a very good football team -- they were not just lucky last year. They are extremely well-coached, and they have incredible attention to detail, making their opponents play their best. They force their opponents to find alternative ways to win the game. They are disciplined; they have a “Born to Run” mentality to keep doing what they do well. (A “Born to Run” mentality is when teams don’t get bored doing the same things. They perform with enthusiasm, as Bruce Springsteen does every time he plays “Born to Run” in concert.)

I like the Dolphins. I like their team toughness, and I like them to be back in the playoffs next season.

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