FROM MICHAEL LOMBARDI:
22 April 2009
QUOTE: “Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes.” -- Oscar Wilde, “Lady Windermere's Fan,” Act III (1893)
QUESTIONS THAT BOTHER ME SO BEFORE THE DRAFT...
Where will Matthew Stafford go if the Lions don’t pick him?
This is the one question that Stafford’s agents, Tom Condon and Ben Dogra, must have answered in their own minds: If the Lions pass, where does Stafford fall to and how much of a financial hit will they take for not taking the Lions’ offer? The Rams have made it clear the one thing they are not doing is taking a quarterback. There’s a chance Seattle might take him, but it’s only a chance. I would suspect the Seahawks have Mark Sanchez rated higher on their board. The Browns? Who knows what they’re doing besides trading their whole team, but on the surface, Stafford would fit the big-arm theory that I’m hearing Eric Mangini wants in his new quarterback. Jacksonville? Again, not sure where he fits in their minds, but I did learn Tuesday that the Jaguars are going to pick the highest-rated player on their board regardless of position and most likely will not take a wideout in the first round.
All those words and I still haven’t answered the question, right? I sense there is no answer, and that should cause Team Stafford some concern and maybe push them into doing a deal with the Lions. Right now, it’s all about leverage, and I’m not sure Stafford has a guaranteed landing spot if the Lions pass. The value of being the No. 1 overall pick is very appealing, and Stafford must think of all his options as he weighs them in the next few days.
Will the Skins move up to get Mark Sanchez?
My sense is that the ‘Skins are an emotional management team and they make emotional decisions. They’re not very good at keeping their plans to themselves, and it’s clear they’re in love with Sanchez. I’m sure head coach Jim Zorn sees that Sanchez would be the perfect player to run his west coast offense and would be able to come in and help the ‘Skins win right away, as Matt Ryan did for the Falcons last year. Sanchez is mentally and physically ready, and with a sound run game, he can grow as the season goes along. Having spent Monday with him here in Los Angeles, he struck me as a very confident player, one who has leadership skills. He’s prepared to play right now despite playing only 16 games in his college career. His practice time at USC enabled him to learn about the speed of the game and the speed required for a quarterback to make decisions.
(Side note: I like Sanchez as the best quarterback in the draft, and if I were working for the Lions, he would be my pick.)
Has Andre Smith moved into the Top 10 for sure?
With the selection of Priority Sports to take over Smith’s representation, I was told by a general manager in the top 10 that this move was an 11th-hour save. Before this hire, there was no certain landing spot for Smith, and there was a “piling on” with regard to his work habits and preparation. What a good agent does is bring peace of mind to the clubs. It allows the club to call the agent and know it can get some help dealing with any problems involving the player. The contract is another reason to have a great agent, but for teams, it’s very important to have someone you can call and know they will help. Smith is a lock to go to Cincinnati or Jacksonville (remember, Mike Shula recruited him at Alabama and is on the staff at Jacksonville), and now might go as high as No. 2 to the Rams or No. 4 to the Seahawks.
Who’s the hottest name besides Sanchez right now?
Michael Oher from Mississippi is the hot name, not just Sanchez. Oher has the league buzzing with his athletic talent, and the fact he’s the last left tackle has increased his value. This is not a surprise name, as I talked about this in the Sunday column two weeks ago, but since then I think he’s gotten hotter.
Who’s the biggest surprise name I’ve heard in the first round?
Phil Loadholt, the tackle from Oklahoma. I’d be shocked if this happens, not because Loadholt is a bad player, but because he’s just a right tackle. I’m not a fan of taking a one-dimensional player because it limits his chances of being able to make the team. What happens if Loadholt can’t play right tackle? He gets cut and the pick is blown. For me, I want linemen who have positional flexibility.
Even so, I’ve heard his name, and he seems to be the other option along with Eben Britton from Arizona.
Who is the best player you have played against?
Every time I talk to a player, I always ask who the best player was they played against in their career. I keep a list, and often the names are not the same. But when the same name seems to come up all the time, I make sure I do more work on that player. This year, it seems like Ohio States’ Chris “Beanie” Wells is the winner. His combination of speed, power and size seems to have players in awe.
Lot's of draft juicy's today, Mike - Outstanding report -
I know you are swamped with the network and gathering draft information right now - But on the off chance you might check the comments -
Yesterday on the network you commented that Everette Brown is sliding down draft boards and that you have been told he is strictly a 4 3 end -
My question to you is was this based on the reports on the network from Charlie Casserly and Mike Mayock?
Or by chance have you spoken with a member of the Patriots who went down to workout Everette Brown last month - Such as Dean Pees, Matt Patricia, Jon Robinson or Nick Caserio?
I am more interested in the Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs personnel and scouts comments on Brown's ability to transition to a 3 4 OLB - As they have actually worked him out at the position, along with Miami -
And these three teams obviously have a better feel and understanding of the transition to the position than a Casserly or Mayock type, in my view -
I have heard good things about Brown being able to make the transition to the 3 4 from what I would consider a reliable source - And he looks to be able to play the part from what I have seen on film -
Just curious if you heard any of this 4 3 only talk from your Patriots contacts?
Mike-
Does Sanchez fit Linehan's system
in DET ? Does he have the arm to
get the ball down the field vertically
in that system ?
Great article.
In my opinion, if Stafford falls to Jacksonville, they have to take him. I've been to Jacksonville many times and the NFL is second fiddle to Florida-Georgia football. Drafting Stafford would bring $$ and interest from that segment of the population the Jaguars have always struggled to get.
Gerrard is as interesting in personality as a paper bag. Stafford along with MJD brings great chemistry and charisma to that franchise.
Of course if the ownership group has no intention of trying to stay in Jacksonville, ignore this whole post.
Mike- Love the site and the insights.
Is there any potential for a scenario in which Detroit takes Jason Smith at #1, and then uses its Second 1st Round pick (#20) and other picks (Like its 2nd Rd. pick at 33) and tries to trade with a team like GB, SF, or Buffalo to take Stafford in the 8-10 range? GB, for example, can avoid overpaying for a pass rusher and build more depth, and Lions can get the 2 players they're considering at #1. Even the draft value chart has this as pretty even trade.
Oscar Wilde quoted on a football site. I have now officially seen it all. (Brilliant quote, btw)
Great article -- the kinda of articles you can only @ nationalfootballpost.
About your NFL network appearances, who chooses your wardrobe? Sometimes you hit bang on with the suit/shirt/tie combo, other times I wondering if you dressed in the dark ...
Nevermind on the Brown question, Mike -
I saw this morning on the network replay you had said that you were quoting "several team sources" - I will just assume your connections to Belichick's Patriots were one of them - Or at least that you were checking with some 3 4 teams ;)
Responding to T Money...
Interesting thought but I don't see GB working a trade with anybody in their division. Detroit must not like Brady Quinn because I don't know why they wouldn't trade their 20th pick in the first round for him and taking a LT at the first overall pick.
T-Money, I don't think any team, even one with a dubious draft history such as the Lions, wants the financial hit of paying two top-10 picks.
Kevin raises a point I've been wondering about, which is why pick a QB to fit the system of a coordinator who will almost certainly be gone from the team before the player is? Nothing against Linehan particularly, coordinators just don't usually have that kind of shelf life.
Put another way, you've really got to be sure you're not giving anything away in the heart/head category just to get a bigger arm.
doc al, that is a good point, but if they get a guy who does not fit the current system, the OC and the HC will be out of town even sooner. On top of that, Calvin Johnson figures to be with the team for a while, and they need a strong arm to get the ball downfield to him regardless fo the system.
Mike, any chance you can post your final 2008 Mock draft, the first two rounds or just the 1st? I can't find it on SI where you were last year I believe and just wanted to see what actually happened compared to your selections.
Thanks and keep up the good work.
Green Bay will take Beanie Wells. You heard it here first.
pushing the bounds on the theoretical here...
if lions go stafford and rams go LT, then how about the chiefs taking sanchez?
as of now, the problem for the chiefs trading down is getting the value for the pick because teams do not want to have to pay the money for players picked so high in the draft. so, the chiefs select sanchez, who then has ZERO negotiation leverage because the chiefs have cassel. as such, they can sign sanchez in the very low end of the range of possible deals, providing a major incentive to trading partners, who would then be willing to give up more value to the chiefs in order to get him. a eli/rivers type scheme or brees/rivers; take your pick.
this is especially intriguing in the event that next year's QB draft class is weak while the rest of the draft is strong and given the CBA situation as other teams needing a QB would have very limited options while the chiefs could stockpile draft selections at the precise time that the free agency market was going insane by then trading sanchez (or cassel).
...if he slips past the Seahawks.
42inch I'm coming baby!
stats-only, Sanchez won't care who else is on the roster. He will demand comparable pay for a 3rd overall pick. KC should take whatever the Redskins are willing to give and trade out of the 3rd spot.
Where did you hear the Browns wanted a strong armed QB? The offense they are running is designed for a ball control accuracy guy, not a big arm take chances style.
matt,
sanchez could demand whatever he wants, but it would not matter because he has no leverage. dont want to sign? enjoy sitting at home on your couch. with 16 college starts, not getting into a camp and working/practicing at the pro level would be devastating.
seeing what the jets paid, only re-enforces the logic of this had the chiefs done so.
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Apr 22, 2009
11:07 AM
Mike,
I am not sure if you are planning another mock draft, but I would be interested to see who you would take if you were the GM of each team. I am assuming that your mocks so far have been designed to show what each team is thinking, but given your experience I would like to see your perspective. For instance, you note that you would take Sanchez over Stafford with the first pick, but does that mean you would take a QB for sure if you were the Lions' GM.