FROM MICHAEL LOMBARDI:
13 April 2009
QUOTE: “I think a hero is an ordinary individual who finds strength to persevere and endure in spite of overwhelming obstacles.” ~ Christopher Reeve
FROM JOE REEDY OF THE CINCINNATI ENQUIRER... Whenever he's been asked, Bengals coach Marvin Lewis has said he expects (Chad) Ocho Cinco to be here and that he should have a good season. But at the league meetings a couple weeks ago, Lewis also said something that can be construed as a personal challenge to Ocho Cinco: "In order to get back to being the Chad Johnson that everybody feared, he was a guy who worked very, very hard at his craft. And if you don't do that, it falls away very quickly and people forget about you." So will Ocho Cinco be traded? Unlike last year, when there was a zero percent chance, it's slightly possible. There is only one person who is going to make the final decision, and that is club president Mike Brown.
Every year in the NFL, you have to prove yourself. One bad year, and many personnel people will suspect your career is nearing the end. Clearly, the wide receiver formerly known as Chad Johnson is at a crossroads in his career. He must prove that he can still be the No. 1 receiver on the field and still has the skill level to make plays. Last season, with Palmer injured and the offensive line not playing well, it was hard to judge Johnson’s play fairly. Or was it?
Last year was a disaster for Johnson, who had just 53 catches and barely averaged 10 yards a catch. However, for a big-play receiver, the most alarming number was that his biggest play of the year was only 26 yards. That would have to concern any team wanting to trade for him. How can the Bengals get fair value based on his 2008 season? At 31 years old, Johnson must prove he hasn’t hit the wall and can recharge his game. However, for trade purposes, how can any team make a move for him and know what they’ll be getting besides a player with great name recognition? On paper, having Chad Johnson might look good. On the field, it’s an iffy proposition.
What would you pay for Johnson? The head coach of the Bengals, Marvin Lewis, seems to imply that Johnson was not ready to play last year in terms of his overall conditioning. As you get older in the NFL, you must work harder and prepare your body for the rigors of the season. Jerry Rice was the master of this; he worked harder as he got older, knowing the first slip in his game would cost him his career.
With Johnson’s trade value diminished as a result of his play in ‘08, what do you suspect Cleveland Browns wide receiver Braylon Edward’s value to be? As I reported Sunday in my National Football Post notes column, the Browns seem to be willing to trade Edwards and have an offer of a No. 1 on the table from a team -- calm down, Eagles fans; they might not be inclined to pay for a player who leads the league in drops -- but are looking for more. Edwards will be a free agent at the end of the year, so his contract is a concern for any team that would be willing to pay a high draft choice. Therefore, to trade Edwards, the Browns must find a team willing to pay their price and willing to pay Edwards’ price. From what I’m hearing, they have at least one team prepared to make the move.
The key to finalizing a trade for Edwards is that the team acquiring him must satisfy two interrelated thoughts. It must feel good about extending his contract at the right number, and it must believe that Edwards will overcome all his drops. How can any team feel secure in a new deal if it suspects he may lead the league in drops again? I respect Edwards’ talent, but I know he’s a hit or miss receiver who might be the player he was in 2007 but also might be the player he was in 2008.
In this draft, besides Michael Crabtree, Edwards would be better than any other wideout, so it makes sense for a team to trade for his services. I don’t doubt that the Browns have a No. 1 on the table, but until you can satisfy the two elements I mentioned, there will always be doubt in the consistency of his play.
FROM ESPN.COM... Free-agent quarterback Byron Leftwich has agreed to a two-year deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a source told ESPN's Michael Smith. Leftwich's deal is for $7.5 million, a source told ESPN.com's John Clayton. Leftwich, the source indicated to Clayton, will be scheduled to make $2 million this year. He will have a $3.5 million roster bonus in 2010 that has to be paid at the start of the free-agency period. If they pay it, Leftwich could make $5.5 million in 2010. The Washington Redskins and Pittsburgh Steelers also were interested in Leftwich, who joins a depth chart in Tampa that includes Luke McCown, Josh Johnson and Brian Griese.
To me, this move doesn’t mean the Bucs won’t pursue Josh Freeman or make a move for him in the draft. This is a protective move in case they don’t get Freeman, as I reported Sunday that Freeman is moving up draft boards and might be a top-10 pick. I would expect Brian Griese to be the odd man out here since the Bucs have too many quarterbacks and not enough reps for everyone. Someone has to go.
With a very modest investment in Leftwich, the Bucs are free to make the moves they want during the draft. The move to sign him after a mini-camp seems to imply the Bucs were not happy with any of their quarterbacks. It also indicates the Bucs coaches were not willing to develop the quarterbacks currently on the roster and were looking to improve their talent level. Having an early mini-camp for a new staff before the draft allows the coaches to get more familiar with the players. This early look allows coaches and personnel men to make decisions as they move forward with their draft preparation.
It appears the ‘Skins were not willing to make the financial investment in Leftwich or give him an assurance he would be allowed to compete for the starting position. With Todd Collins as their back-up, the ‘Skins are not looking to invest in another, so all they had to offer was a modest third-string deal, unless they felt Leftwich could beat out Jason Campbell. I wouldn’t bet against that one, but clearly, they didn’t want to see how it unfolded. The ‘Skins success in ‘09 rests with Campbell, so Redskins fans better hope he improves -- greatly.
Good read, Mike -
I found this comment particularly interesting with respects to how you feel about the wide receivers in the upcoming draft -
Mike Lombardi said: "I respect Edwards’ talent, but I know he’s a hit or miss receiver who might be the player he was in 2007 but also might be the player he was in 2008. In this draft, besides Michael Crabtree, Edwards would be better than any other wideout..."
It appears by this that you have come to the conclusion every receiver in the draft with the exception of Crabtree is a hit or miss pick - Interesting...
ALL picks are hit or miss.
Edwards would be the better choice because you have more "history" with him. You know his attitude, personality, work ethic, speed... and drops. But the good outweighs the bad.
It's all about data-gathering, and there is just more data to GATHER on a guy who's been in the League a while.
WR is one of the biggest "hit or miss" positions in the first round EVERY year. Pro WRs need to be much smarter and much more technically precise than they do in college, which makes it a very hard position to predict.
Gathering data and thinking that you understand the players history is not the end all to the evaluation process that you are attempting to make it out to be - Especially when it comes to younger players like Edwards -
As for all picks being hit or miss - This depends largely on who is doing the evaluating -
As for how smart a pro WR needs to be -
If you want to use the wonderlic as your measuring stick - Randy Moss scored a 12 and Andre Johnson scored a 14 - Both are considered to be below the preferred 18 score -
Yet neither score appears to have hindered either of their production ;)
Great read Mike. Todd Collins for a back up in Washington still? That is like Clay Carroll wanting Bill Plummer to catch him instead of Johnny Bench.
All receivers are crap shoots. Of course, those who don't sulk (Hines Ward, Eddie Royal, etc.) seem to be good investments and can play exceptionally well. As for Chad Johnson, it's like my dad lectures me: perception is reality. As long as he remains aloof and doesn't take his conditioning seriously, things will probably only get worse for him. As for Braylon, hold onto the ball!
Send Braylon to Big Bluuuuuuuuuee....
I would not use the wonderlic as a measure of anything useful, and that is precisely the point.
Its very hard to measure how a college WR will be able to pick up on pro schemes and post-snap adjustments that drive modern offenses. There isn't a universal measure, and teams need to use one of their limited workout invites or their limited combine minutes to ask players to demonstrate football IQ.
If one looks at the receiver position over the top half of round one within the past decade - It basically shows the position no different from the quarterbacks, running backs, offensive or defensive lineman, tight ends with respects to its hit-miss ratio, or whether its a crap shoot etc -
Only the linebackers and secondary positions in the top half of drafts (round one) in the past decade can really be argued as the better predictors of success ratio when translated to the NFL -
Take away the receivers who could not separate to begin with, combined with showing no other extraordinary skill set to cause them to be taken in the top half of round one - Such as the Williams (Mike-Reggie), Rod Gardner, Travis Taylor etc etc - Then the position evens out quite a bit more with respects to the Andre and Calvin Johnsons, Fitzgerald, Holt, Burress etc taken in the top half of round one - And we still have receivers such as Edwards and Roy Williams, yet to be determined as to whether they were hits or misses -
Even when looking further into first day picks (round one and two) at the receiver position over the past decade - There have been notables such as Wayne, Boldin, Bowe, Holmes, Jennings, White, Royal, Ocho Cinco-Johnson, DeSean and Vincent Jackson, Walker etc -
For every Charles Rogers there is an Akili Smith or Tim Couch - For every Mike Williams there is a...Mike Williams :) - For every David Terell there is a Michael Haynes -
Bottom line - Bad drafting and poor talent evaluation is bad drafting and poor talent evaluation...at any position -
Bill Parcells is my uncle,
What do you use as a data reference? Did you collate data by hand? Do you know of a good online resource? Did you go by memory?
I'm not trying to be snarky. I'm honestly interested in your point, and would like to cross reference the last 10 drafts without spending the next hour managing data longhand to find a binary success ratio by position.
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Apr 13, 2009
10:08 AM
Carolina should have been in the mix for Byron as well.
Teams willing to pay for Edwards, Washington, Oakland, the New York Jets are all known to pay for free agents, which is it?