FROM MICHAEL LOMBARDI:
08 MAY 2009
QUOTE: “But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we can not hallow -- this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here.” -- Abraham Lincoln, The Gettysburg Address, Nov. 19, 1863
Did I read this right from our own Matt Bowen on Thursday? “This season, Tennessee won’t get past the Houston Texans (I’m already on that bandwagon), who I’m going to pick to win the division in August.” Is he really going to pick the Texans to win the AFC South, with the Colts’ Peyton Manning healthy this year? What’s in the water in Chicago? My man from Iowa has fallen for the same trick I fell for last year -- but the Texans won’t fool me this time, and I hope to convince Mr. Bowen to jump off the bandwagon for his own good.

The Texans are a very sexy pick as they have one of the most prolific offenses in all of football. (Why would a former hard-hitting defensive back fall in love with a “sexy and stylish” offense? Is he trying to get in touch with his artistic side?) They can move the ball at will up and down the field (mostly at home). They have tremendous skill players who make big plays and rarely drop any balls (the Texans had the fewest number of dropped passes in the league). They have big wideouts who can make yards after the catch. They make big plays in the run and passing game (No. 2 in the NFL in plays over 20 yards), they handle the blitz extremely well and make teams pay a price when they try and attack the quarterback. The fact they won five of their last six games after starting 0-4 makes a strong case that they can build off last season’s momentum. There’s much to like about the Texans in 2009, just as there was much to like about them in 2008 -- but underneath all this offense are a few major flaws.
The first place to try to get Mr. Bowen back to reality is with Matt Schaub, the Texans’ quarterback. Is Matt going to place all his faith in Schaub, who has trouble staying healthy all season and, more importantly, isn’t always mentally tough when it comes to leading his team? In two seasons as the starter in Houston, Schaub has missed five games each year. So it would be a fair assumption to say he’s probably going to miss games this year, and I’m sure Mr. Bowen considered this before he dropped the bomb that the Texans are his AFC South favorites. Since he lives in Chicago, he’s been able to see the wizardry and talent of their back-up quarterback, Dan Orlovsky, while he performed with the Detroit Lions last year. He must have seen something I never saw.
From the Texans’ perspective, I must ask one fundamental question: Are you kidding me? You cannot be serious placing this team in the hands of Dan “Wrong Way” Orlovsky. You know that Schaub is going to miss games and you’re going to count on Orlovsky to be the man and lead your team? That seems like hoping to me, and you all know how I feel about hope. I might understand signing Orlovsky as a No. 3, but signing him as a back-up to a quarterback who has a history of injuries will cost this team critical games in a tight division. One game may decide who goes to the playoffs and who stays home.

When healthy and in the right offense (which is clearly the case in Houston), Schaub is a very fine football player. However, he lacks command and a presence that’s essential in the starting quarterback. He doesn’t have an ability to make the team believe he’s “the man” and will hold the other players accountable. When a team doesn’t get its leadership and, to a large degree, its personality from the starting quarterback, it must have great leaders in other areas of the team to compensate. Unfortunately for the Texans, I don’t see leadership or inspiration coming from anyone on the offensive or defensive side of the ball, and this is why they haven’t been a good road team the past two years.
Despite my concerns about the mental toughness on offense, the real reason the Texans won’t make the playoffs is their defense. Being kind, they were horrible on every level last season -- players, coaching and scheme – but to their credit, they have tried to fix these problems in all areas. They hired linebackers coach Frank Bush to handle the defensive coordinator job in the hope he can cut down on all the scheming that seems to be the signature of the defense and get back to core fundamentals and sound principles. They added Antonio Smith from the Cards to play the other side away from Mario Williams, hoping he can bolster their pass rush and provide athletic talent in the front seven. They drafted Brian Cushing from USC in the first round to give them more speed and athleticism in their linebackers. But where does this team get any pass rush? Williams had 12 of the team’s 25 sacks. Their second-leading pass rusher was a free agent, Tim Bulman.
Adding Cushing and Smith to go along with Cato June does help the defense improve its speed, but the lack of a pass rush will expose the already thin secondary. Dunta Robinson, their best corner, is unhappy over having the franchise tag placed on him, and the rest of the players might be good enough to start for the Texans, but there’s doubt in my mind whether they’re quality starters. A great pass rush can overcome a poor secondary, but with Houston, there are flaws in both areas -- and ultimately that will kill them when they have to play Indy for the AFC South crown.

The Texans really need a complementary defense to go along with their prolific offense -- a style of defense that features great team speed creating havoc and pressure and one that can get to the passer from all levels, forcing the ball to come out quickly and creating turnovers. Currently, I don’t see that this defense can withstand a physical fight on the road, nor does it have the ability to create turnovers with team speed. The Texans will always be able to get a lead in games, but they will struggle to maintain the lead with their defense.
The soft schedule does favor the Texans, which I’m sure Mr. Bowen was thinking as he sipped on his Bud Heavy, believing the schedule and the great offense are a recipe for winning the South. However, as Lee Corso of ESPN’s “GameDay” always says, “Not so fast, my friend.” The Texans are as soft as their schedule and don’t have the ability to keep Mr. Manning from winning the division.
Now we can get Mr. Bowen back to his beloved WWE.
Have a great weekend, and be sure to check back Sunday Morning for the next edition of Sunday at the Post. ...Antonio Smith and Brian Cushing will bring some grit to the Texans' D. In passing situations, Connor Barwin will bring speed off the edge opposite Mario; Smith then dropping inside. IMO, Barwin is odds-on to lead all rooks in sacks. We'll see.
However, points related to Schaub are well taken.
Indy's loses are pension related, Coaches Moore and Mudd, and those are very serious.
Therefore: TENN will win the division. While they lost Haynesworth, KVB is coming back and, speaking as a Steelers' fan, Jason Jones certainly looks ready. More to it: TENN lost nothing from their OL, and that is a very fine, dominating unit.
I want to poopoo the Texans band wagon as well. They seem to be very similar to the 2008 Cards in some respects; (1)Powerful offense, (2)Not so good defense, (3)the popular bandwagon team, however the Cards played in a crappy division while these Texans do not.
Interesting opinion piece.
I'm a little unsure of why I'm defending the Texans here, but you asked, "where's the pass rush?" In fact, that's all anyone asked as the season ended and every "pundit" said they had to fix things. So they get the best free agent DE available, draft an elite college linebacker in the first, and a DE/OLB pass rushing hybrid in the second. I'm not saying they're going to turn into the Giants or anything, but before we shoot them down, let's at least see how their plan to improve that pass rush works out for them.
As for the Schaub opinions, obviously you're more informed than me, but there needs to be some sort of "I've been told from people close with the Texans..." in there. How am I supposed to just assume Matt Schaub isn't a good leader? How do I know that Andre Johnson doesn't think he's "the man"?
Just too much fluff backing the opinions. Not my favorite Lombardi post.
Yes, I would agree that I am a huge fan of WWE wrestling, Bud Heavies, and now--the Houston Texans....
Saints-Texans in the Super Bowl Michael....
I was a bit surprised at the money Antonio Smith commanded. He's a good football player and a great locker room guy but he's not really an elite pass rusher. Like Calvin Pace he benefited from Clancy's schemes and the other talent around him. I think he's a great addition and wish the Cards could have kept him...but not at the price the market settled at. He's certainly an upgrade but I don't think he'll provide a lot of sack production (5-7 maybe?)
Look. Everybody said the Titans were going to be last in the division last year (before the season even started).... and they went on a 10-0 winning streak. The Texans were supposed to be great LAST year. Granted, the hurricane at the beginning of the season surely affected their groove.... but they are NOT going to be better than the Titans or the Colts this year.
The Colts shored up at RB and DT. The Titans... well.... not a lot changed. We lost Haynesworth. Big deal. We stacked our D-Line in the Draft, and we improved our receiving corps in free agency and the Draft.
Yeah - the Texans beat the Titans once last year - but watch the game again. The refs weren't blowing the whistle when they should have. Slaton got some first downs he shouldn't have gotten.
Now. You're looking at an improved/healthier Colts team and an improved Titans team. The Titans will be so deep at DT/DE that Slaton will be facing fresh faces every two downs. They don't have the secondary to defend tall receivers like Britt, either. And Kerry Collins is starting the seaon as the STARTER and will have put in much more work prior to season start which translates into better performance.
Manning will not be coming off of knee surgery, Jeff Saturday is healthy, they re-signed Ed Johnson who hopefully will have learned his lesson but who can also thicken up their D-Line. And don't forget Antonio Johnson. He's no Albert Haynesworth, but he's big and he's tough. The Titans hated to lose him.
Aside from that - losing Marvin Harrison is not that big of a deal. Have you paid attention to Anthony Gonzalez? That kid is like lightning. He is going to bring big things to the Colts offense this year. Oh - and Dallas Clark will not be entering this season coming off an injury.
So... the AFC South is going to come down to head-to-head battles between the Colts and Titans. The Jaguars are too dysfunctional to even register this year, and the Texans are still the red-headed stepchild of the AFC South.
I'm sorry, but predicting the Texans will overpower the Titans and Colts this year is fantasy. Pure fantasy.
If the Texans win the division, I vow to board the Starship Enterprise, put Spock in a pod and shoot him into Deep Space and beam Captain Kirk to Klingon Hell. Because I can DO that. Because I wrote it. It will become truth.
The Texans would have to improve by leaps and bounds to even win one game against each this year.
Texans Defense:
Their secondary is thin, but Dunta Robinson, their best CB, did not play last season so his presence on the field will serve as a huge upgrade in their secondary over last season. Now with that said they are still not stout in the secondary and desperately covet an effective pass rush. You address this by saying this a weakness because Mario Williams is their only premiere pass rusher. However, a 2nd round draft pick by the name of Connor Barwin has the potential to be a very effective pass rusher on the opposite side of Mario. His presence coupled with Cushing and June using their speed and agility to make plays in the middle of the field will monumentally enhance the success of that defense. With that said, Indy is still the unquestioned favorite to win this division, but it is a lot closer than you think. If the injuries swing from the Texans to an aging Colt team, this could be their year to flourish.
Saints-Texans in the SB ?
N.O. can I can buy. I too expect a
big bounce-back season from those guys.
But vs the Texans ? Methinks that the
Budweiser distributors in Shytown must
really be scrambling to restock their
clients supplies of Bud Heavies. Bowen
obviously consumed WAY too many of
them prior to making that prediction !
Saints-Texans??
Good heavens!
Lombardi, maybe Bowen actually knows more than you. Because I'm not sure where you got your "leadership" information. Most teammates have talked about Schaubs since he arrived, mostly without provocation. You need to research before doing your schtick.
Totally agree on the Texans, they just aren't quite ready to make the next step, and a little bit over-hyped right now.
I think the "surprise" team to come out of the AFC South is actually the Jags this year. That, of course, is contingent on the players respecting Del Rio.
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May 08, 2009
10:22 AM
As much as people like to bash Sage, i still do not understand the trade to the VIkings for a Four. They did nothing to adequately replace him. I know that might bring the laughs, but when you have a fragile starter--the backup may be one of the best investments you can make.
It boggles my mind that someone in the Texans front office--who undoubtedly has playoff aspirations for 09-- can say they are better off with Anthony Hill (the 4thround TE) over Sage.