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Diner Morning News: Where's Martz?

Michael Lombardi

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FROM MICHAEL LOMBARDI:

20 March 2009

QUOTE:   “The most important thing in communication is to hear what isn't being said.”  ~ Peter Drucker (1909 - 2005)

FROM JOHN CRUMPACKER OF THE SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE... (Mike) Martz, 57, did not return a phone call from the Chronicle seeking further reaction to what was his third firing in the last four seasons. The Lions fired him as offensive coordinator after the 2007 season and the Rams dismissed him as their head coach after '05. San Francisco has been a way station for offensive coordinators of late, with Martz being the sixth in the last six years. The 49ers ranked 32nd and last in the NFL in total offense in 2007 under coordinator Jim Hostler and were 23rd this season under Martz, including 13th in passing offense. The 49ers scored 120 more points and generated nearly 1,200 more yards this season than in '07.  Their seventh offensive coordinator in seven years will install yet another system when the 49ers gather for the first time in 2009 for a spring mini-camp.  With Martz running the show, Frank Gore was a 1,000-yard rusher and Shaun Hill the 12th-ranked quarterback in the league, ahead of more well-known players at the position as Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, Jake Delhomme, Brett Favre and Ben Roethlisberger.

This is a story I have wanted to write for some time because I think it’s unfair that Mike Martz is not coaching in the NFL this year.  Martz is one of the best offensive coaches in the league, he has an incredibly creative offensive mind and he makes the quarterback play at a higher level. 

I received an e-mail from a reader saying I was being too hard on Shawn Hill’s talent, and I might have been too quick to dismiss his ability to lead the 49ers to the promise land.  That e-mail also forced me to rethink the 49ers’ firing of Martz and how their dismissal of him is what made me believe that Shawn Hill is not a starter. 

Being a successful offensive coordinator requires having a sense of pride of authorship in your work, which is a very nice way of saying you have an ego.  Martz takes tremendous pride in his work, and some in the league feel he’s statistic-oriented in order to help his quest to become a head coach once again.  So what’s wrong with being ambitious?  What’s wrong with wanting to prove wrong everyone who has smeared your career?  It’s only bad if it gets in the way of winning, if it becomes bigger than the team.  Isn’t that the head coach’s job, to make sure this doesn’t happen?  Being a head coach requires you to inspire and lead the people in doing what you want done.  Leaders do the right things, managers do them right. 

I heard all the talk last season about how the Lions were going to go back and be a run team, that getting rid of Martz would allow them to protect the ball, run more and manage the game in a more efficient way.  Well, how did that work?  The Lions lost all 16 games, but I promise you, had Martz been the offensive coordinator last year, they would have won a game or two.  In Detroit, the offensive theory after firing Martz is the same theory now in San Francisco.  The team wants to return to a running game, but all they return to is a bad offense.  The 49ers don’t want to throw the ball more than 30 times and they want to establish the run.  This is the same organization that invented the west coast offense built on the theory that you have to throw the ball to run. Establishing the run only means you are kicking field goals. 

Here’s an article I wrote last year about destroying some myths in the NFL:

YOU MUST ESTABLISH THE RUN EARLY IN THE GAME

Every time I turn on a NFL game, the first comment that makes me hit the mute button is when announcers start talking about establishing the running game and expanding on the virtues of how the running game will set up the entire offensive playbook.  What hogwash -- is anyone paying attention to what is going on in the NFL today?  The running game in the first half doesn’t set up anything other than field goal attempts and potentially low-scoring games.  In fact, the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL last season, the Minnesota Vikings, failed to make the playoffs.  No. 2?  The Oakland Raiders -- another non-playoff team.  Who is behind this “establish the running game early” myth? 

Football is a complicated and complex game.  It’s a chess match each week.  “They have a very smart coaching staff and we have a very smart coaching staff," New York Jets wide receiver Laveranues Coles said prior to opening the NFL season against the Patriots.  "They basically use us as chess pieces.  How they position us to play this game that is the main thing now.  Whoever can make the adjustments the best and the fastest will probably have the edge.”  Coles clearly understands today’s NFL.  The chess pieces are moving through the air now.  Teams are more proficient throwing the ball and establishing the pass earlier in the game.  In addition, when you throw the ball in the first half, you can score points -- building the lead — giving your team an excellent chance to win.    

One of the masters of the pro football version of chess was the late, great Bill Walsh.  Walsh built an offense called the “west coast offense,” and many teams in the NFL run a variation of his well-designed attack.  However, the west coast offense is really a “philosophy,” not a system of plays.  It is based on throwing the ball early in the game and building a lead, then running the ball to keep the lead.  Walsh wanted to take short passes and use the skill and quickness of the wideouts to run with the ball -- instead of trying to design running plays that would gain the NFL average of 4.0 yards per attempt.  

The NFL is a passing league, and teams that come out and try to find balance with their play calling in the first half are bucking the recent trend.  You have to throw to score in the NFL.  Over half of the NFL had a 57-percent pass ratio in the first half.  For example, last year, Seattle was 31st in the NFL in runs called in the first half but 13th in runs called in the second half.  Green Bay, 29th first half runs called, 19th in the second half; Indy, 28th in first-half runs called, seventh in the second; Dallas, 27th in first-half runs called, 11th in the second; and New England, 26th in first-half runs called, 14th in the second.  These run/pass ratios are exactly the theories that went into building the west coast. 

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So if the NFL is a passing league, why is Mike Martz unemployed?  If you need the threat of a passing game to run the ball, much like the 49ers had last year, why is Martz still not working? My sense of his situation has nothing to do with his knowledge or his talent. My sense is that it’s insecure coaches who don’t want to lead Mike but would rather turn over their offense to him and then complain that he’s not running the ball.  Martz has too much talent to be sitting on the sidelines this year, and it will be interesting to watch the 49ers get back to the run, just like the Lions did in ‘08. 

Have a great weekend, and I hope all your brackets are going well.

Comments

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Bill Parcells is my uncle
Mar 20, 2009
11:35 AM

Teams (11) with over 10 wins in 2007 - Even in 2007, 6 of these teams ranked in the top 10 in rushing yards per game - And the Patriots were less than 3 yards per game behind 10th ranked Cleveland in coming in at 13th during that 2007 season -


New England 16-0 (13th)
Dallas 13-3 (17th)
Green Bay 13-3 (21st)
Indianapolis 13-3 (18th)
Jacksonville 11-5 (2nd)
San Diego 11-5 (7th)
NY Giants 10-6 (4th)
Pittsburgh 10-6 (3rd)
Cleveland 10-6 (10th)
Tennessee 10-6 (5th)
Seattle 10-6 (20th)

And again Mike saying Oakland was 2nd in 2007 is incorrect, Oakland ranked 6th in rushing in 2007 - And the only reason why Oakland was 6th (2007) in rushing is because their awful Head Coach Lane Kiffin preferred keeping the games closer by running the ball when down by double digits, as opposed to trying to actually win the game instead of tucking tail and running clock time -

If the passing the football philosophy was so successful in the NFL, then we would have more than just the Colts and Rams winning the Super Bowl in the past 10 years - Just 2 of 10 passing teams (Colts-Rams) have won the Super Bowl in the past 10 years -

The chances of any NFL team finding another Joe Montana to lead their team to 4 Super Bowls in a high powered passing attack, as the legendary Joe did with San Francisco is slim and none -

Now this is not to diminish the passing games importance - As balance is always a plus on either side of the ball and New England did have a great run with Brady, Moss, Welker and co in 2007 - But the fact is that more teams have been proven to win without a strong passing game, than have been proven to win with a strong passing game -

The more things appear to change, the more they actually stay the same - You win in this league with defense and by being able to run the football, period -

Why do you think so many teams are now switching back to the 3-4 defense? To stop the run -

Bill Parcells is my uncle
Mar 20, 2009
11:46 AM

Sean I would suggest you check out these top 7 running teams (2008) in the NFL - Then get back to me on who is really mixing up the cause and effect here -

1 NY Giants 157.4 Rushing Yards Per Game
2 Atlanta 152.7 RYPG
3 Carolina 152.3 RYPG
4 Baltimore 148.5 RYPG
5 Minnesota 145.8 RYPG
6 New England 142.4 RYPG
7 Tennessee 137.4 RYPG

These teams established the run early - They were running football teams - Running football teams run the ball and look to establish their running game early on - It has always been that way -

Trust me, coaches like Bill Belichick and Mike Smith didn't turn first year starters at QB loose early in games unless they were behind -

JScott
Mar 20, 2009
11:47 AM

Michael, I read your stuff daily and NFP has become my go-to source for insightful articles. Now, with the pleasantries out of the way i've got to check you on the "This[49ers] is the same organization that invented the west coast offense,...". you know as well as i do that the WCO originated with a young Bill Walsh in Cincy -- improvised after the debilitating injury of their heir apparent QB, downfield passing, DanCook. I know QueenCityOffense probably wouldn't be received too well in football circles, but throwing all the credit to SanFran just seems a little unfair.

Mark B
Mar 20, 2009
12:06 PM

Lombardi has great points, but I think he would've communicated better to just say :

"You need a balanced attack to win in the NFL. Coaching is at a level that a one dimensional team stands little chance because defensive coordinators can scheme against it to stop it. Martz, whatever you want to think about him is a whiz in the passing game and has made most QBs he's been working with better. 3 yards and a cloud of dust don't work anymore. Creativity is key and few are as creative as Martz."

Had Lombardi said that, I'd mostly agree with him, however Martz' teams are turn over factories. Like the run and shoot years ago they are usually pretty good at racking up yardage between the 20s...during the regular season...when the game isn't on the line, but in crunch situations they don't usually get the job done.

I thought Singletary did a great job of reigning in Martz last year. If you can do that, I think you have the best of both worlds. Too bad they split up.

Jared
Mar 20, 2009
12:15 PM

Mike, what are the chances of the Pats hiring Martz as an offensive consultant to help Belichik, somewhat similar to what Reese will be doing with personnel?

dan
Mar 20, 2009
12:23 PM

You want to know why Martz was canned, look no further than that game where the Niners looked like the Keystone Cops in the final seconds against the Cardinals. It was Singletary's second game as coach, and Martz was trying to act like it was his team, and not Samurai Mike's. I wish I could find a YouTube clip of it. Martz basically shoved Singletary out of the way. You don't do that to your boss. ...unless you want to get fired. ...which, of course, he was.

Mr.Murder
Mar 20, 2009
12:26 PM

From a viewer's perspective it makes football a lot more fun to watch when Martz is directing the play calls.

Jack
Mar 20, 2009
12:59 PM

The whole run vs. pass argument is mostly meaningless in my book. Good offensive teams can move the ball and score when they need to (passing) AND run the clock and rest the defense when they need to (Running). The cause and effect has more to do with "good offensive lines and schemes lead to winning" than "running leads to winning" or "passing leads to winning."


Teams with good offensive lines and schemes can pass and run effectively. Depending on the talent at the skill positions, they may do more of one than the other.

Jack
Mar 20, 2009
01:00 PM

Jared - Zero chance.

Ron
Mar 20, 2009
01:04 PM

is martz getting overtures from the UFL? Maybe be an OC for Ted Cottrell for a year then get a team of his own if the league survives into year 2?

Sean
Mar 20, 2009
01:08 PM

Bill- I'm not talking about one year, I'm talking about fifteen straight years where you can look at the numbers and there is zero correlation between early rushing attempts and wins. Teams can rush all they want early on, but it has very little to do with their winning games. Again, it's incredibly simple- teams that are winning run the football a lot because they are icing the clock and protecting a lead. As such, being able to do so is important, because if you are a team that can pass well but can't run (think Arizona, or any of the old run-and-shoot teams), you give your opponent a chance to get back in the game. Likewise, being able to stop the run is important primarily to give your team a chance to catch up if you are behind late in a game; it's really not important to be a top run-stopping team early on in games (you do have to be competent at it).

Really, the single most telling statistic, other than advanced statistics like the ones they use at Football Outsiders (which are much, much better than conventional stats) is net differential per pass attempt. If you are looking for a single metric to determine the strength of a football team, that's basically where you should go. The run to win/stop the run to win crowd are living in the 1970s when the rules were different; they really don't apply anymore.

Jon
Mar 20, 2009
01:19 PM

I think Martz is a great coach... arrogant? Yes, but a wonderful offensive mind. To the guy saying you have to run the ball to win... the only reason those teams are running it so much is because they are already winning in the 2nd half and they are killing the clock... to get the lead they were a lot more pass happy

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