Further Research On The NFL Draft

Most scholarly articles contain a section that usually poses questions for further research. Today, there are several questions gnawing at me from the draft and events of recent days. The nicest part of raising questions like this is that there’s no immediate responsibility for answering them, and if you as readers are interested, we can do a bit of research to find the answers to these questions and others in the coming weeks.

Social Clustering in the NFL

I have a student finishing a master’s project on coaching changes in the National Hockey League. It’s an interesting piece of work because it shows that firing a coach in mid-season is a desperate move and rarely produces much success. However, his study does indicate that any team considering a mid-season replacement should look to hire a western Canadian-bred coach as the interim because this group is, by far, more successful than any other.  We haven’t identified why, but it does bring us back to the concept of “clustering,” which is present in every sports organization.

Clustering is simply that we tend to surround ourselves with people we’re comfortable with, and that can be based on a variety of factors. The success of coaching trees is an illustration of a form of clustering. But a concept broke the surface this week and is worth taking a deeper look at.

Peter King on SI.com wrote about how the Jets pulled off the deal to get Cleveland’s first pick and draft QB Mark Sanchez:

If you're a New York Jets fan, and you find yourself standing in line at a Modell's somewhere in the metropolis this week waiting for your SANCHEZ jersey, you really should pause and give thanks to four people:

1. Safety Abram Elam, the most important of three players in the deal between Cleveland and the Jets that netted USC quarterback Mark Sanchez. Most important for several reasons, which I'll get to in a moment.

2. Rex Ryan, the Jets' coach, who finessed a vital part of this trade Friday night.

3. Mike Tannenbaum, the Jets' GM, who wouldn't take no for an answer.

4. Dawn Aponte. Capwoman, Cleveland Browns. Formerly the Jets' cap person, and formerly a VP with the NFL Management Council.

King points out just how inter-connected -- or maybe incestuous is a better word -- these two teams are now. Cleveland head coach Eric Mangini was the head coach of the Jets. He worked in Cleveland and New York with Jets GM Tannenbaum and remains good friends with him. New Jets head coach Rex Ryan’s twin brother, Rob, is the defensive coordinator for Mangini and coached with Mangini in New England.  Aponte was Tannenbaum’s assistant with the Jets.  So the question that bears further research is: Do teams trade more easily or more often when there’s a clear front office or coaching staff connection?  It stands to reason they would, but this kind of clustering flies in the face of the long believed veil of secrecy that teams cultivate. A league in which a team illegally films opponents’ warm-ups probably doesn’t have a climate where a great deal of confidential information gets exchanged, or does it? The trade question might shed some light on this largely unknown dimension. If you’re looking for a club executive with a bright future, it’s Dawn Aponte.  I’ve known Dawn for about six years and have been impressed by how she takes in information, builds alliances and has grown in every job she’s held.  If you don’t know her name, you should. Sanchez, Starts and Success Mark Sanchez, and my divisional dean at NYU, immediately bring up the next question for further research: Does playing experience, or do a certain number of college starts, have a correlation in accurately predicting NFL success for quarterback? Sanchez leaves USC with only 16 starts. For a quick point of comparison, Hall of Famers Joe Montana started 24 games for Notre Dame, while John Elway and Dan Marino were four-year starters.  Is Sanchez at an experiential disadvantage? What have other quarterbacks with abbreviated college careers done historically, and how did they developed?   Is there a common experience factor for successful NFL quarterbacks?  USC coach Pete Carroll and the Jets really need to know. Wide Receivers, Record Numbers and Relation to Record Mike Cramer, the former president of the Dallas Stars and Texas Rangers, is a member of the sports faculty at NYU. He raised an interesting question over dinner this week that merits further study. With 34 wide receivers drafted, including six first-rounders, is the position becoming more important and more highly valued? When you consider that in recent years having an elite wideout, or wideouts, has been characteristic of the best teams, is the position increasing in value? Trade demands for the likes of Braylon Edwards and Anquan Boldin before the draft certainly indicate that wide receiver may be the next position tied to team success and value inflation. Football Players and Sacrifice Legendary Army football player Felix “Doc” Blanchard passed away last week at age 84. He wasn’t my father’s hero, as my dad grew up a Notre Dame fan, but Blanchard was the feared and respected opponent my father held up to me as an example of greatness. Like most of the readers here, I never saw Blanchard play but will rely on Notre Dame coach Ed McKeever’s description: "I've just seen Superman in the flesh. He wears No. 35 and goes by the name of Blanchard." Blanchard, who weighed less than 210 pounds, also excelled in the shot put, throwing over 50 feet, and was considered as good a linebacker as a runner. You have to wonder what it might have been like if Blanchard, who was drafted by Pittsburgh, had convinced the Army to let him play in the NFL.  Would a young Blanchard, playing fullback and linebacker, have been a devastating runner and tackler. As a Steeler, would Blanchard have met the young Eagle, Chuck Bednarik, in a hole on short yardage with shattering consequence? It was not to be, except perhaps on a field of dreams somewhere, outlined against a grey November sky where legends are eternally young and strong. But like Burt Lancaster’s Doc Graham from the movie “Field of Dreams,” we all should be grateful that when Blanchard took off his West Point jersey, he put on the uniform of his country and did not look back.  Blanchard retired a colonel in the Air Force, an honored fighter pilot with more than 100 combat missions to his credit. A question as the greatest generation leaves us, and it’s a question for something more than just research, is: Do players today believe in the kind of sacrifice and higher duty that guided Blanchard, and does the game still help build that?  I certainly hope the answer is yes. A grateful nation thanks Doc Blanchard for all he did on and off the field.

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