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Monday Night Preview

With a win, the Bears will pull even with the Vikings at 9-6, but will still lose out in the tie-breaker. The Bears must win tonight against Green Bay, then go on the road and beat Houston next Sunday to have a shot at the NFC North crown. Matt Bowen

Bookmark and Share Print This Send This December 22, 2008, 03:18 PM EST
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Green Bay Packers (5-9) at Chicago Bears (8-6)

 

8:30 (EST) Soldier Field, Chicago

 

WEATHER: 10 Degrees, Snow Showers

 

LINE: Bears -4.5  OVER: 40

 

RANKINGS:

 

Bears: Offense 302.1 (26th)/ Defense: 326.8 (14th)

 

Packers: Offense 343.5 (11th)/ Defense 344.5 (24th)

WHAT’S AT STAKE:

Quite a bit for Chicago. With a win, the Bears will pull even with the Vikings at 9-6, but will still lose out in the tie-breaker. The Bears must win tonight against Green Bay, then go on the road and beat Houston next Sunday to have a shot at the NFC North crown. A Vikings loss next week will open the door for Chicago, but they still have to beat Green Bay tonight. A wild card slot is still in the air, but a lot has to take place for Chicago. Bottom line: They have to win out. Green Bay is playing to avoid a double-digit losing record and wants to sweep the Bears — always a plus in this classic series.

MATCH UPS TO WATCH:

1. Aaron Rodgers vs. Bears Pressure Package: EDGE Bears

The second half of the season, the Chicago Bears have turned into a pressure-oriented team, especially on third downs. Long gone is the Tampa 2 scheme on third and medium-to-long. Instead, the Packers and Rodgers can expect the Bears to rush at least six, sometimes seven, defenders in their zone and zero-man blitzes. Remember, this is how the Bears got to Drew Brees last week in their victory.

2. Bears Receivers vs. Packers Secondary: EDGE Packers

If anyone saw the Packers’ 37-3 pounding of the Bears at Lambeau this season, then you know the Bears’ wide receivers don’t match up with the ball-hawking secondary of Green Bay. Kyle Orton had nowhere to throw the ball as the Packers’ defenders locked down the Bears in their man-to-man scheme. The Packers have 18 interceptions as a team this year, and the Bears need to be creative and align their players in positions that create mismatches. Look for Bears TE Greg Olson to be featured for this exact reason.

3. Matt Forte vs. Packers’ Run Defense: EDGE Bears

The Packers are giving up 135 yards on the ground this season, which ranks 27th in the NFL. If the weather prediction holds up in Chicago, I expect Forte to be the feature player in tonight’s Bears game plan. Don’t be surprised if he gets close to 30 carries, and also don’t be surprised to see him reach the 100-yard mark. This may be the deciding factor in the game.

4. Bears’ Special Teams vs. Packers’ Special Teams: EDGE Bears

Any time you’re playing a rivalry game — in this kind of weather — the kicking game becomes crucial. I’ll take Brad Maynard and Robbie Gould over Mason Crosby and Jeremy Kapinos any day. Throw in the fact that the Bears’ return game looks to have an edge over the Packers and I’m taking the Bears in this category. Field position will be huge tonight and a big return could be the deciding factor in the outcome. I would put my money on the Bears’ Daniel Manning and Devin Hester at Soldier.

5. Packers’ Fans vs. Bears’ Fans: EDGE Packers

Wait a minute. Isn’t this game in Chicago? Yes it is, but we all know that Packer fans find a way to sneak into opposing stadiums. Don’t be surprised to see plenty of orange hunting jackets and camouflaged bibs make the trip down the Edens Expressway this afternoon on their way into the South Loop. Packer fans travel well, are used to the cold and will be heard. Not that Bears fans aren’t the same way, but the Packers’ fans will be there. Hopefully, they’ll bring some extra sausage and Miller High Life for Bears fans, you know, just to say thanks.

OVERVIEW:

It is hard to pick the Bears if you look at the box score from the game in Lambeau. But these are two teams that went in opposite directions after that Sunday. The Bears started winning, and the Packers, well, they went into the tank — head first. This team has just flat out imploded in the fourth quarter as of late.

PREDICTION:

It will be a great game in the snow under the lights along Lake Michigan, if you can stand the fact that ESPN’s Tony Kornheiser is going to blast Packers management all night. Packer-Bears games seem personal to Bears Coach Lovie Smith, plus the Bears were embarrassed in Lambeau and the Packers are looking forward to the draft. Bears win — in the fourth quarter. Sound familiar, Packer fans?

BEARS 24  PACKERS 20

Comments

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Peter
Dec 22, 2008
03:34 PM

Matt - alright. Not too much to say, except for I don't think it will even be close. The Bears will win by 2 TDs at least, simply because it will be cold and windy, they have a run game, and they have a return game. I think you are giving my Packers too much credit. They have already given up, and word is that this team is slipping away from McCarthy's control. As a Packers fan, it would be nice to at least see some effort, but apparently that is only there during practice, indoors I should add. One more thing I have to disagree with you is "I’ll take Brad Maynard and Robbie Gould over Mason Crosby and Jeremy Kapinos any day". But that would be because of Kapinos and Maynard. I would take Maynard any day over Kapinos although Kapinos is a pleasant surprise after Frosty the snowman, but I would take Crosby over Gould any day, twice on Sundays, and three times on Mondays. Gould has never made a FG over 50 yards, hardly ever attempts those, and Crosby led the league last year as a rookie. He's a very good kicker, and I never have to worry. Even this year, with changing the holder (twice), he did alright.

Aaron
Dec 22, 2008
04:20 PM

Peter - I think the Packer team you see tonight will shock you, much like they did the first time against the Bears.

http://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/cheeseheadtv-matchup-week-16

Peter
Dec 22, 2008
04:41 PM

Aaron - I would be happy to see effort for 4 quarters. At the same time, I would like some of the young guys like Desmond Bishop, Josh Sitton, and Allen Barbre (jackson is injured unfortunately) get a chance to show what they can do in a game against a team that still could make the playoffs. But that is not going to happen. I would be surprised to say the least if we saw a good game from the Packers tonight. As mentioned, it will be cold and windy, and that is hard to overcome without a running game or a run defense.

Jero D
Dec 22, 2008
04:43 PM

Under 40

If Forte runs the way Matt Bowen says, neither team should reach 23. As well, 170 yards per team might be the passing ceiling tonight unless a receiver breaks away for a serious YAC run.

Is it going to snow or is it some baby flakes off a da lake? We're looking at a whopping 2 degrees on the other side of Milwaukee with negative wind chills.

Peter
Dec 22, 2008
04:52 PM

Jero - I am actually down here (not to see the game though, wish I could be cannot make it). Right now it is about 3 degress with wind chill of -10. Forecast calls for 0 at kickoff with -10 wind chill and about 10 mph wind WSW. It is supposed to be getting warmer as the game progresses, with about 10 degress, wind chill of 0, around 10 pm. Let's see.

dan
Dec 22, 2008
05:00 PM

Nah, I don't think McCarthy's losing the team. I just think that they don't have the talent on the d-line to compete with anybody right now.

It'll be like the last several Packer games: see-saw battle where the defense folds when it counts. It's just the same result playing itself out over and over and over and over.

Jero D
Dec 22, 2008
05:15 PM

Warming up tonight Peter? Nice, that will help bring on the next 3-5 tomorrow.

Matt Bowen
Dec 22, 2008
05:25 PM

Jero- They are saying big flakes off the lake, but what do they know....

Peter
Dec 22, 2008
06:01 PM

Jero - actually they say it will be in the mid 30s by Wednesday. that's like Summer :)

Jerry in Texas
Dec 22, 2008
06:26 PM

I am optimistically pessimistic about this game. I know, starting out with a contradictory statement may not make much sense, but, although I have given up on the season, I refuse to give up on the team. These last two games, against division rivals, could be big. Knocking the Bears out of the playoffs (take that, Lovie!) would be great. Making sure the Lions are the losingest team in NFL history would also be great.I'm still looking for revenge for that beatdown the Packers took on Thanksgiving Day, 1962- no joke. The "Roger Twins (Karras and Brown) were BEASTS that day. Time to set the stage for next year.

No Heat
Dec 22, 2008
07:32 PM

Bears win big tonight boys!!!!

Jero D
Dec 22, 2008
10:03 PM

Man. One minute left in the half and if you play the name game (with a light beer even) and picked Favre, you'd be lit.

Tony Kornheiser has probably mentioned Favre more in this half then Wayne Larrivee and Larry McCarren have since week 3.

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