Monday Night Preview

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3) at Carolina Panthers (9-3)

8:30 (EST) ESPN: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Line: Panthers -3     OVER: 38.5

Rankings:

OFFENSE:                                            DEFENSE:

Carolina 325.8 (17^th)                          Carolina 313.3 (12^th)

Tampa 335.4 (12^th)                              Tampa 279.5 (4^th)

What’s at stake:

For starters, first place in the ultra-competitive NFC South. Add in the Giants’ loss Sunday to Philly, and the winner of this game has an outside chance at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

MATCH-UPS TO WATCH

1. Jeff Garica vs. Carolina Pass Rush: EDGE Garcia

I have to go with Garica in this one because of the offensive strategy of the Bucs. Tampa is a west coast team, which leads to more 3-step drops from Garcia. Call it “dink and dunk” if you want, but it enables Garcia to quickly get rid of the football. Garcia has been sacked just 15 times this season, and although he has only 8 touchdown passes, he has thrown only 3 interceptions. I like Garica tonight.

2. D. Williams/J. Stewart vs. Tampa Run Defense: EDGE Williams/Stewart

This is a tough one because the Panthers are averaging 133 yards per game on the ground versus a Bucs defense that gives up only 95 yards a game rushing. But I’m giving the edge to the Williams/Stewart combo because of the Tampa 2 defensive scheme that only allows for a seven-man front. Look for the Panthers to force the Bucs into an eight-man front and then try to hit Steve Smith on the outside in single coverage.

3. Jake Delhomme vs. Tampa Pass Defense: EDGE Tampa

This one shouldn’t be a question. The Bucs have picked off 17 passes this season. If they can stop the Panthers’ running attack with their seven-man front, I expect the Bucs to sit in Cover 2, jam Smith at the line of scrimmage and then play a cloud safety over the top of him. Sounds good and looks good — if you can stop the run. I see Tampa making some plays in the passing game tonight.

4. Jon Gruden vs. John Fox: EDGE Gruden

I wouldn’t bet against Gruden. The Bucs crushed Carolina in Tampa 27-3 in October, but Gruden will not let his team think it can just walk into the stadium and win this one. The Bucs will be prepared, and Gruden will ride whichever player is hot until the clock runs out. I always like Gruden in big games.

OVERVIEW

Let’s be honest, this is a huge Monday night game — a rarity at this point in the season. Carolina is a better football team than it was in October, but until Jake Delhomme finds a way to play consistently, the Panthers will live and die with the rushing attack. If Tampa can find a way to contain (not necessarily stop) Williams and Stewart, the game will fall on Delhomme’s ability to make throws in the second half against the Bucs’ ball-hawking defense. Tampa will score enough points to win — if it gets the turnovers I expect it to get. Nothing exciting here tonight, folks, but a lot of hitting if you like defensive football.

PREDICTION

I’m going with the Bucs on the road tonight. Delhomme throws two picks, and Garcia makes enough plays to win it.

BUCS 17, PANTHERS 13

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