National Football Post Diner News

February 19, 2008

QUOTE:  “If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties.”  Francis Bacon, “The Advancement of Learning” (1605), Book I, v, 8.

FROM DAVID WHITE OF THE SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE… NFL.com reported the contract pays Lechler $12 million, but a team source said that was not accurate. He will make an estimated $4 million in guaranteed money, the team source said. Whatever the value, it was enough to keep Lechler from hitting the free-agent market, where multiple teams were gearing to make a run for the NFL's all-time leader in punting average.

From this day forward, never -- and I strongly mean never -- believe that a player and a team cannot make up.  Never believe that there is finality in anything as long as great money is involved.  I know Shane Lechler very well, and I know how unhappy he has been the past few years at the Hotel.  He made it very well known – and let everyone in his circle of friends know -- that last season was his last at the Hotel.  And this was before getting punched by Terdell Sands on a flight home from Denver.  Once the fight happened, his determination not to come back moved to a conviction of purpose.  He sold his house in Danville, cleaned out his locker before the last game and went home to Texas convinced he would never return to the Bay area.  Now, some might say this was a ploy to get more money from the Raiders, but if you know Lechler, you know him to be one of the nicest and honest players in the league.  He is not about playing games; he wanted to return to the south and get away from all the dysfunction. 

But all that changed Wednesday when Lechler agreed to become the highest paid punter in the NFL, an achievement he deserves greatly.  His about-face is one of the most stunning pieces of news in free agency before free agency has even started.  This sudden change is a clear indication that in the next few days, money will rule all the events of player movement.  Don't ever discount the power of green.  I know many of Shane’s teammates are happy to have him back, but they are as surprised as I am. 

So as we embark on the next few days, don’t be surprised with anything that might happen in the marketplace.  When the power of green is involved, anything is possible.  I wish Shane all the best and am sincerely happy for him. He deserves it. 

FROM SPORTINGNEWS.COM… A day after 49ers coach Mike Singletary did not rule out the possibility of trying to sign Michael Vick if and when the quarterback is reinstated into the NFL, the team emphatically said it is not interested in the quarterback's services, the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat reports. "The 49ers are not interested in Michael Vick," a team spokesman told the newspaper on Tuesday. GM Scot McCloughan does not consider Vick a viable option for the team's future, several 49ers sources said. McCloughan does not plan on speaking publicly about Vick since he remains under contract with the Falcons. The 49ers forfeited a fifth-round draft pick last year after the NFL ruled the club was guilty of tampering with Bears linebacker Lance Briggs.  49ers president Jed York said that while any decision on Vick would be up to McCloughan and Singletary, he does not believe Vick is part of the team's future.  "That's not something we've discussed, and I doubt that would happen," York said.

This begs for some analysis on two fronts.  What is Michael Vick worth in a trade, and where will he end up? 

What is his value?  All trades have relevance to other trades and set the market for potential trades.  For example, if Brett Favre is worth a third-round pick knowing it might be a short-time trade, does that apply to Vick?  Does the trade of Adam “Pacman” Jones apply, since Jones had not been re-instated by the league and the Cowboys took a chance on him with a contingent plan if he was not allowed to play by the Commissioner?  The Cowboys essentially gave up a fourth-round pick, and they were protected with a pick the next year.  So is Vick worth a fourth? 

My sense of the value the Falcons might receive lies in the middle rounds, and the first question that has to be addressed is his contract.  No team is going to be willing to take on Vick and pay him what’s left on his old contract.  Vick had five years remaining on a deal that was broken down this way, all in base salary: (When a player is on the reserve list and is out of football, his contract is toiled and he works under the last year’s deal, which in his case was 2007 and his base was 6 million.)

2009     $9 million

2010     $10.5 million

2011     $12 million

2012     $12.5 million

2013     $13.5 million

The first order of business for any trade to occur is for Vick to agree to restructure his contract, which gives him and his agent a little leverage in the deal.  If -- and underscore if -- Vick is re-instated to the league, he could walk to the Falcons and force their hand and make them count him on their cap at $9 million.  If they don’t want to do that, then once he has been re-instated, they would have to release him outright and absorb the cap charges.  He has $6 million of signing bonus acceleration, and he will be a positive cap charge for the Falcons.  So before a trade can take place, the contract has to be redone. 

Now, what team?  The first idea that comes to mind would be teams with strong leadership at the top and that have a role for him, maybe outside of being a full-time quarterback.  The Dolphins, with their “wildcat” formation and their development of the old single-wing formation make some sense.  Bill Parcells can handle the media attention and help Vick get his career moving once again.  So teams that have a role and a willingness to take a chance are at the top of the list. 

Dallas can expand its offense and make him a part of a form of “wildcat” and use him to help make some big plays.  The key here is to understand that this Michael Vick will be humbled, he will be willing to play any role and willing to do whatever it takes to get back playing the sport he loves.  So don’t think in terms of a starting quarterback job; think in terms of coming in and helping a team and having someone in ownership or the head coach or GM chair who can help shield the media attention and allow Vick get back to football. 

I think St. Louis, which is in need of playmakers and knows what he can do because its GM, Billy Devanney, was with Vick in Atlanta and knows the player and the person, could be a landing spot. 

Tampa might make some sense, but from what I’m hearing, the Bucs are committed to drafting a quarterback and finally putting a face on their franchise. That doesn’t bode well for Vick. 

Minnesota might make some sense, but it would have to have a specific plan on offense. Vick proved one thing in Atlanta, that he’s not a west coast quarterback. 

The Raiders make some sense. They love speed, and Tom Cable knows Vick from his days in Atlanta.  He could be a good change-of-pace quarterback and specialty player with JaMarcus Russell. 

Buffalo is at a crossroads at quarterback. The Bills need Trent Edwards to stay healthy and be the Trent Edwards of the first four weeks of the season.  They have an owner who’s not afraid to take chances and is willing to do what it takes to win. 

The 49ers, as mentioned above, seem to have no interest in Vick because of his off-the-field issues, which is easy to understand. But if the 49ers think they’re going to win with Shawn Hill for the long term, they’re mistaken. 

Have I left anyone out?  I’m sure this will be debated for weeks and months to come, and the puzzle will get clearer for some team.   First, the contract gets redone, then the team gets selected. 

All this is assuming that he’s allowed to play in the league next year — which has yet to be determined. 

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