National Football Post Tavern Talk

WEEK FIVE IN THE NFL

3-Oct-08            Bye week: St. Louis, New York Jets, Cleveland, Oakland

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

The word we are hearing out of Green Bay is that Aaron Rodgers will play this Sunday.  All of his teammates believe he will go.  Let’s hope for the Packer faithful he can play.  No one wants to see Matt Flynn right now. 

The Falcons will struggle to handle the front of the Packers, but losing Cullen Jenkins, who was playing very well, will really hurt the Packers.  He was on my all pro team after four games. 

The Falcons have not scored a TD on the road and have lost 24-9 in each of their two road games this season.  Michael Turner averages only 49.0 rush YPG on the road this season, but gets 162.0 rush YPG at home.  If I am Thomas Dimitroff, the GM of the Falcons, I would make evaluations of the team, ONLY from the road games.

Ryan Grant has zero TDs this season, and that is not how to help a young quarterback get going. 

The Packers' six turnovers have produced 30 points for their opponents – tied for the third most in the NFL.  Their defense has nine takeaways so far, eight in the last three games.

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals

Not having Terrence McGee could create problems for the Bills secondary and place more stress on Greer and rookie McKelvin.  Although, Austin Youboty has been playing well.

This will be the first legitimate passing offense the Bills have faced all season.  They faced the Seahawks in week one (but they had no wideouts), and Jacksonville, Oakland, and the Rams are not nearly as good as the Cards are when they are throwing it. 

The Bills have outscored their opponents 45-10 in the fourth quarter this season.

The Bills had 15 pass plays of 25+ yards in 2007.  Thus far in 2008, their offense already has 10 pass plays longer than 25 yards.

The Cards are a “scheme” defense.  They might look good one week and bad the next.  They have to hit it right and each week you just never know.  They allow 7.4 per attempt and they have allowed a 104 quarterback rating.  Coverage is a huge concern for them here.  They have ONLY two interceptions in four games. 

The Cardinals have won four straight at home and they are 7-2 at home under Ken Whisenhunt.

DT Kyle Williams has been playing at a very high level for the Bills all season.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Matchup of Great Defenses

Defensive Rank THIS SEASON

                                    Titans    Ravens

PPG                                  1^st       2^nd      

Total YPG                         5^th       1^st  

3^rd down pct                     7^th       2^nd  

Sacks                               2^nd       14^th 

Takeaways                       1^st       15^th 

The defensive line of Jevon Kearse (1.5), Tony Brown (3.5), Albert Haynesworth (5.0), and Kyle Vanden Bosch (3.0) have figured in on 14 of the Titans 15 sacks this season.

I'm not sure how the Ravens can block the front of the Titans.  It will be a very hard game to get the run going. 

Tony Brown is playing at a Pro Bowl level right now for the Titans and he will be hard for the Ravens to block. 

Still, the Ravens have run for more yards this year than they have passed.  They will need to throw the ball to win this game.  

The Ravens will need to make a play in the kicking game to make up for their lack of offense.  

The Titans have some very nice schemes.  However, they are great on defense because they are well coached, prepared, and have more than one way to beat you in the game.

Don’t forget my Pittsburgh rule — teams don’t play well the next week after playing the Steelers.

Joe Flacco was much faster last week, and this week, he will need to be really fast with the ball.  I would stay AWAY from Cortland Finnegan’s side. 

This game will mean more Chris Johnson and less LenDale White.  Johnson is the kind of athlete that is needed to deal with the Ravens.  White is too slow to help in this game. 

Expect a lot of punts here and having Chuck Pagano on the Ravens staff as the secondary coach will really help the Ravens.  Chuck is a great coach and knows what bothers Collins from his days with him in Oakland. 

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers

Most Consecutive Losses When Allowing a 100-Yard Rusher – Active Streaks

Carolina Panthers                      19

Detroit Lions                              16

Cincinnati Bengals                     11

New York Jets                             8

Kansas City Chiefs                       7

The Chiefs will struggle to block the front of the Panthers, and without Brandon Albert they will need to double Peppers on every play.  They cannot let the front of the Panthers get control of the game. 

The Panthers' defense has allowed only two offensive TDs in the last three games.

The Panthers have won three games this year and their third down percentage is 25%.  I find it amazing that they can like that statistic, but they control the time of possession for the season.  That is kind of strange, right? 

If you would have told me in August that Muhsin Muhammad would average over 13 yards per catch this year, I would have told you that you were crazy.  He has had a slight resurgence. 

Dwayne Jarrett is not going to be a player.  If wide receiver coach Richard Williamson cannot get it out of him, no one can.  You MUST have quickness to be considered a possession receiver.  I never see quickness in the play of Jarrett.

The Panthers' dynamic duo of running backs will be able to have a good game against the Chiefs.  Even though Jordan Gross cannot play because of the concussion, I still feel the Panthers will be able to run the ball. 

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

The Colts have won 11 of the previous 12 meetings, including two in a row.  Houston’s lone win in the series came in week 16 of the 2006 season – on a Kris Brown FG with 0:00 on the clock.  The Colts have scored 30+ points in seven of the 12 meetings, including five of the last six.

Overall, the Colts have outscored Houston 368-199 in the all-time series (30.7 to 16.6) and the Colts are 11-0 in the month of October since 2005.  This is Manning time.

The Colts have to get the running game going, and having Joe Addai at 3.3 a carry is not what this offense is all about.  The last week was good for the Colts to get their offense back on track, as it was like training camp for the Colts. 

Matt Schaub is 0-6 in six starts vs the AFC South over the last two seasons (174.5 pass YPG, four TDs, six INTs) and he will have to show some real toughness to make the throws knowing he has a rookie blocking Dwight Freeney.

This is Houston's first home game all season.

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins

Which Miami defense will show up, the one that played in Arizona or the one in New England? 

Phillip Rivers is 11-7 in his career on the road as a starter and he proved last week that he can overcome a bad start and settle down.  The Fins defense still has an overall 114 QB rating.  Rivers will have a good game. 

I think for the first week, LaDainian Tomlinson is finally healthy and will be able to make some plays.  But running back Darren Sproles needs to get the ball and will at some point in the game.  He is now a part of the offense, a huge part. 

The Fins have not allowed a point in the fourth quarter all season, but they get behind early in the first (a total of 21-7 thus far in the first quarters of this year's games).  If they get behind in this game, they will struggle to keep it close. 

Miami has the worst group of wide receivers in the NFL and this is the perfect game at the right time for the Chargers.  They need to play man-to-man and force Chad Pennington to throw the ball into tight windows. 

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