National Football Post Tavern Talk

WEEK SIX IN THE NFL…

Bye week: Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

The Dolphins head to Houston for the 3^rd straight year having lost the previous 2 by a total of 5 points (last year was a 22-19 loss; in ’06 it was a 17-15 loss). The Texans are 3-0 all-time vs Miami.

Miami struggles at wide receiver badly and the Texans struggle in the secondary.  This is the perfect kind of team for the Texans to play.  Opposing quarterbacks have a 100 QB rating on the Texans this year. 

Dolphins Turnaround

                                                            2007     2008

PPG allowed                                          27.3     18.5

Penalties per game                                  5.7        4.0

Turnovers per game                                  1.8        0.5

Turnover differential                                     -7        +1

4^th quarter scoring margin                          -42      +24<<

>>have not allowed any points in 4^th quarter

Joey “The Tipper’s” main man, Steve Slaton, has 336 scrimmage yards (242 rush, 94 receiving); Slaton has a TD in the past 3 games

The Texans will have trouble with the power and the physical play of the Dolphin defensive line and front seven.  Matt Schaub will need to play well. 

The Texans need to find some toughness with their offense.  They run plays and look pretty, but they need to get nastier and tougher. 

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

The Ravens and Colts are meeting for the 5^th time in 5 seasons (including the playoffs) and for the first time in Indianapolis since 2004. The Colts have won the last 5 meetings dating back to 2002 – including playoffs - and have won the last 4 by a combined score of 103-43. The Colts have won 6 of the 8 all-time meetings, including playoffs (3-0 at home).

The Colts have not won in the new stadium yet. The old RCA dome had great crowd noise which helped their run defense.  The Ravens HAVE to run to win. 

The Colts will be stationary with their offensive formations to allow Payton to have time to read and react to the blitzes that are coming.  The Colts have to find a running game to keep the Ravens from loading up every play. 

Indy needs to have them declare their blitzes early in the play clock.  They need time to change.  Be alert for blitz pass calls changed to runs when Manning knows he is not getting blitzed.  The Colts will be ready to protect first and check out, as opposed to checking into protection. 

The Ravens defense has gone 23 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher, which is the longest active streak in NFL.  The last player to rush for 100 yards vs. the Ravens was Larry Johnson on 12/10/06)…

The Ravens’ “D” ranks 1st in opponent completion percentage (46.2), QB rating (44.6), yards per attempt (4.9) and “big play” pass completions (3).

The Colts offensive line is the worst it has been since 2000 and if they don’t find a way to play with more toughness and more consistency, they will struggle to block. 

With Fabian Washington missing the game, the Ravens will be down to their fourth and fifth corners. Normally, that would be the kiss of death against the Colts. 

I suspect Anthony Gonzalez will have a big game.  The Ravens don’t have a good match for him with their secondary personnel. 

The Colts have only scored 24 points in the 2^nd and 3^rd quarters so far this year.  They are not able to handle the physical play of the game and get shut down. 

Indy’s not a good covering team on special teams.  They allow over ten yards a punt and 23 yards per kick off.  This is a critical area for the Ravens to pick up field position and possibly points. 

This will not be a hard game for Joe Flacco to read or react in during the game, but he needs to be quicker and smarter with the ball.  Turnovers have been critical in this matchup before. 

Last 5 games, including playoffs

                                                           Colts             Ravens

PPG                                                    25.0               12.6

Takeaways                                           18                     3

Pts off takeaways                                43                     0

Missed FG                                             1                      4

Pts off opp. Missed FG                          14                      0

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets

The Jets are wearing their Titans uniforms again and are 2-1 in the throwbacks. They have scored 96 points in the last 2 games wearing these uniforms (results in throwbacks: 9/28/08 def ARI 56-35; I HATE THESE UNIFORMS….

Since 2007, the Bengals are 0-8 when Carson Palmer attempts 39 or more passes (0-2 this season)…They have to find a running game and have to find some way to control the seven man fronts. 

Chris Perry is at 2.8 YPC.  One tenth less than Rudi Johnson last year.  They need a back and it is not Cedric Benson. 

When in nickel, the Jets take Kris Jenkins off the field.   The Bengals need to be in nickel for most of the game. 

The Bengals have to find a way to make a big play in the passing game.  With all the “name” stars, the Bengals longest pass play is 36 yards to running back De De Dorsey.  The wide receiver formerly known as Chad Johnson has a long of 22 yards.  They must work the ball down the field. 

The Bengals are 9-12 under Lewis with an even turnover differential, and 4-27 with a negative differential (they have yet to win the turnover battle this season, are 0-3 with an even turnover diff. and 0-1 with a negative).  No big plays and turning the ball over is a recipe for losing. 

The Bengals are bad at the start of the game, as well as to start the second half.  They need to stop digging a hole for themselves.  They have scored only 3 points in the first quarter all year--and only 7 in the third quarter.  They need to get warmed up much quicker. 

The Jets allow a 68% completion percentage and need to play their best game in the secondary against the Bengals.  The one area of Bengal strength is the one area of Jet weakness.  But all of this is moot since Palmer is not playing. 

Cincy has to be able to get off the field on third down in the game, as the Jets are only 37% on third downs.  BUT the Bengals allow 45%.  They must make a play.

Coming off the bye week for the Jets means the Bengals must be alert for trick plays and something new.  This always happens when coaches have more time.

Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints

The Raiders have allowed 77 points in the 2^nd half; 24 in the 1^st half…

The Saints are playing their 4^th game at home this season (2-1 so far)…Drew Brees is averaging 334.6 pass YPG and leads the NFL (4 300-yard games)…

I expect the Raiders to have maximum protection and try to throw the ball down the field early in the game.  Oakland needs to keep the ball away from the Saints and will win if the Saints have the ball less than 27 minutes. 

New Orleans is a very good team attacking protections.  The Raiders will need to change protections and not allow the Saints to get a handle on them.  I’d look for Paul Hackett, the Raiders coach, to have more influence here. 

The Saints season has been about them making mistakes, in game management and turnovers.  The Saints 38 points allowed off their own turnovers are the 2^nd most in the NFL (11 turnovers are also tied for 2^nd most)

The Raiders will struggle to cover the Saints and cannot keep Brees from making the right throws.  They need to play cover 2 and force the Saints to run.

I know all the Saint fans want them to play running back Deuce McAlister, but the reality is he is very slow and looks done to me.  The Saints make it easier for the defense when he is on the field. 

If the Raiders don’t have DE Derrick Burgess, this will kill their pass rush and their athletic ability on the field.  They need to pressure, speed and to mix it up on Drew Brees. 

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Two teams with very similar styles want to run the ball and play good defense.  When they throw it, they make big plays. 

Kyle Orton has 7 TD passes in the last 3 games (at least 2 in all 3 games)…

Devin Hester has 8 rec, 93 yards, 2 TD in last 2 games…Bears are 10-2 when Hester scores a TD

The Bears will crowd the line of scrimmage and force the Falcons to check out of runs.  Look for the Falcons to attack these corners.  If Roddy White is healthy he could have a huge impact. 

Everyone knows Atlanta has to run, and yet they average 5.5 per rush, which is just amazing to me. 

The Bears have to win the game with their defensive front and they have to make it through the first quarter, where the Falcons have done most of their damage. 

Matt Forte leads the NFL in offensive touches (129)…Chicago has converted 34 of 78 third down attempts (43.6 percent) this season which is the key stat here.  Whichever team controls the ball the longest will win this game. 

Chicago has to double Roddy White and John Abraham all game. 

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

The Lions have lost 5 straight and are 1-11 in their last 12 games…Detroit’s defense has allowed 406 points in their last 12 games; they have allowed 30+ points in 9 of those 12 games…

Vikings this season By Starting QB

                        Starter              T. Jackson     G. Frerotte

Starts                                                    2                      3

W-L                                                    0-2                    2-1

PPG                                                   17.0                 22.3

Pass YPG                                          144.0                221.7

Yards/attempt                                      5.2                    6.5

Passing 1^st downs                                7.5                    12.0

25+ yard pass plays                               0                       5

3^rd down conversions                             31%                 38%

Bernard Berrian is averaging 89.0 YPG in his last three outings.   The Vikings have rushed for 124 yards in the last 2 games; they rushed for 485 yards in the 1^st 3 games.   Clearly they are trying to throw the ball. 

The Vikings have 9 takeaways in the last 4 games

Kitna has started 36 games for the Lions – in those 36 games he’s personally turned the ball over 63 times (47 INT, 16 fumbles); He’s also been sacked 129 times. OUCH OUCH OUCH…

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