NFL Over/Under: Playing the Odds

It’s Wednesday here at the National Football Post, time to play the NFL odds. Today: Matt Cassel, Indy, Favre’s TDs, and more.

250-Passing yards for Matt Cassel against the Steelers (UNDER)

The Matt Cassel talk is nice. The Matt Cassel talk that he is going to replace Tom Brady next season is ludicrous. Sure, if there were a “Matt Cassel Fan Club,” I might very well be the president, but as much as I love watching this guy play—his hot streak is going to come to an end. The Pittsburgh Steelers have the best  defense in the NFL folks. The best. I see Cassel struggling this weekend against Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. Yes, the Pats can still win this game, but they are going to have to find some offense in the running game, because the amount of pressure they are going to face from Pittsburgh could rattle Cassel enough to throw some picks.  Cassel can still have a solid day, but you aren’t going to throw for 400 yards against the Steelers my friends. This should be on the best games of the year between two teams that have a legitimate chance to go to Tampa.

150-Rushing yards for Adrian Peterson against the Bears (OVER)

This just in: Adrian Peterson owns the Chicago Bears. AP has faced the Monsters of the Midway three times. In those three games, Peterson has amassed over 700 yards on the ground. Do the Bears have an answer? I'm not sure, but if they don’t, they can forget about the NFC North title. Chicago figured out a way to stop the Titans rushing attack a couple of weeks back, but then followed it up with a pitiful performance against Ryan Grant and the Packers. If they don’t find a way to limit AP—especially in explosive runs (over 20 yards)—it will be a long night. Watching Peterson play, I can honestly say that he is the best running back in the NFL. For the Bears, he can’t be the best on Sunday night, but we know he is going to get the football—a lot. To beat the Vikings, you have to put the ball in Gus Frerrote’s hands. Can the Bears do it? Maybe, but AP finds a way to go over 150.

32- TD passes for Brett Favre at season’s end (OVER)

I’m going with the over on this one folks. Favre sits at 20 TD passes right now for the first place Jets. Can he throw 12 more TDs before the season runs out? Sure. Let’s look at his match ups: Denver (3 TDs), at San Fran (4 TDs), Buffalo (2 TDs), at Seattle (4 TDs), and Miami (1 TD). By my calculations that gives Favre 34 TDs going into the playoffs. Not bad, huh? I’ve said earlier in the year that Michael Turner was the bets free agent acquisition in the NFL, but the Favre signing isn’t far behind. You could tell the Jets were shaky, searching for an identity early in the year, but they are playing great football now. Plus, Favre is the perfect quarterback for that team. I still don’t think they can make it all the way to Tampa, but without Favre, they wouldn’t even be in the discussion. The guy can still sling it.

12-Wins for the Colts at season’s end (PUSH)

OK, maybe I fell in love with the Colts again (my pre-season Super Bowl Champ), but how can I not? Peyton Manning is playing at a Pro Bowl level again, Bob Sanders should be healthy for the stretch run, and Joseph Addai came out of hiding in recent weeks. But, 12 wins? Just check out the schedule: at Cleveland (falling apart at the seems), Cincy (we know the answer there), Detroit (do I really need to say anything?), at Jacksonville (Del Rio might be on the streets by then), and Tennessee (for the division crown?). This has the making of a five game run to cap off the season, and if the Titans drop a couple more, maybe, just maybe, the Colts win the AFC South. At worst, Indy gets the #1 Wild Card spot, and we all know they are a tough match up in January. I honestly think we are looking at a Steelers-Colts AFC Championship game. All right, now you can flood my inbox with complaints.

5- Games Donovan McNabb starts the rest of this season (UNDER)

Folks, this thing is about to come to an end. McNabb will most likely start the next three or four games, but a loss against the Cards on Thanksgiving night all but eliminates the Eagles from the playoffs. With games at the end of the season that become meaningless, there is no reason not to bench McNabb for Kevin Kolb—for good. Andy Reid and the puppet masters in the Eagles' front office will make this move a reality. McNabb will be there—again—yawning on the sideline while he collects big time money from the bench. The off-season will roll around and McNabb will find a new uniform (a dark purple maybe?) and this thing will be over with. The Eagles will run out of the tunnel next year with Kevin Kolb as the new face of the franchise. Yeah! What a joke. Maybe someone in Philly should have found a receiver that could run down the field before laying all the blame on McNabb. Just a thought.

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