NFL Over/Under: Playing the Odds

Every Wednesday at The National Football Post I play the NFL odds. Today: the Viking Dilemma, Sack Leaders, the Patriots’ month of December, and more.

2- Wins in December for the Vikings minus the Williams Boys (UNDER)

Tough news for Viking fans yesterday about the suspension of Pat and Kevin Williams for a banned substance by the NFL. GREAT NEWS if you are a Bears or Packers fan. This is over 600-pounds of beef in the middle my friends, and not just any beef. The Williams’ are like prime cuts of filets at your favorite steak house when it comes to production and absolute dominance. Kevin Williams was having a Pro Bowl season, while Pat Williams was still the unmovable force he has always been in the middle. A huge loss for a team that lives and dies with the Tampa 2 defensive scheme—that requires great defensive tackles to work. Let’s take a look at their December schedule: at Detroit (WIN), at Arizona (LOSS), Atlanta (LOSS), NY Giants (LOSS). Three losses in a row to close out the season? I see it, and so do the Packer and Bears fans who read my columns. The Vikings will not win the NFC North.

20- NFL sack leader at end of the season (OVER)

Has anyone else noticed the amount of sacks guys are making this season? As we start December, nine players have over 10 total sacks, and the leaders—once again—are the linebackers. Why? The return of the 3-4 defense in places such as Dallas, Pittsburgh, Miami, etc have led to these guys coming off the edge and making plays on the quarterback. Back in the early 90’s, OLB’s led the league in sacks yearly (think LT), but offenses started progressing. Out were the 5 to 7-step drops from quarterbacks. Instead, the 3-step game became the new rage of the league. Well, defenses have combated that with edge rushers out of the 3-4 fronts, and players like DeMarcus Ware, James Harrison, Joey Porter, and Lamar Woodley are making a killing. I don’t know who is going to win this race, but I think it is from one of these four guys—most likely Harrison, who might be the best defensive player in the NFL.

10- NFL interception leader at the end of the season (UNDER)

On the flip side, interceptions are down. You would think with the high number of sacks we are seeing, that the balls would be flying all over the place in the defensive secondary, but Troy Polamalu of the Steelers leads the league with just six picks. Why? The quarterbacks. These guys (minus Kyle Orton on Sunday against the Vikes) are making better decisions with the football. Plus, quarterbacks are eating the ball more often (hence the sacks going up). Turnovers lose games in the NFL. Sacks don’t. Quarterbacks are taught that a punt is better than a turnover, so either throw it away or eat the ball, and kick it away. There is always another series coming up—unless you throw it into the hands of a guy wearing a different color jersey. Polamalu will lead the league at the end of December, but he will only get to nine.

4- Wins the Patriots need to get into the Playoffs (PUSH)

Yes, the New England Patriots, the dominance of the NFL, need to win out to make it into the tournament in January. Win on the road against Seattle and Oakland (an easy task), head home for Arizona (who can’t win outside of the desert), and then finish up the season with a trip to play the Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium (most likely in the snow). This is the game that worries me for the Patriots. Sure, the Bills won’t be playing for anything except a win against the most hated team in western New York (and the good feeling they will have drinking beer after a win), but The Ralph isn’t an easy place to play in October, let alone December—after Christmas. It is going to be cold, nasty, wet, murky, whatever terrible adjective you can think about. Plus, can Matt Cassel deliver in what might be the biggest game of the season against a familiar opponent? Well, he has to. The Pats have to do some scoreboard watching as well with Baltimore. The Ravens are going to have to play lights out football against Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Jacksonville this month. I would put my money on the Pats.

0- Games Plaxico Burress will play in a Giants uniform after arrest (PUSH)

This one is probably too easy to pick, but after the Giants placed Plax on the NFI (Non-Football Injury List), basically banishing him from the team’s practice facility, he is as good as gone. I’ll admit, I was hard on Plax earlier this week after the mystery novel detail started to leak out about his Friday night excursion into Manhattan, and I don’t plan on taking a step back from my statements. Everyone is entitled to make decisions as an adult, and those decisions carry consequences (just like not believing in Santa Claus). But, as a pro athlete, the decisions players make are scrutinized in every media outlet across the country and the world. Giants’ Head Coach Tom Coughlin is tough to deal with when you show up a minute late to a meeting. Just imagine how tough he is when you embarrass the whole team? Plax will play again, but in will never be in Giants' blue. That train has left the station.

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