NFL Over/Under: Playing The Odds

Every Wednesday here at The National Football Post, I play the NFL odds. Today: Darren Sproles vs. the Steelers, Vikings quarterback tryouts, Ravens-Titans and more.

175- All-Purpose yards for Darren Sproles versus the Steelers (UNDER)

Sorry, Bolts fans, but I don’t see Sproles having one of those Xbox games again. Not to say that this will doom the Chargers, but they are going to have to find a different way to put points on the board in the cold weather — on grass — in Pittsburgh. Why? Well, the Colts’ defense is nice, suitable, manageable even, but this Pittsburgh defense — the one we write stories about — is as good as it gets (that includes you too, Ray Lewis). Sure, Sproles will get his touches — as LT rides off into the sunset — but I just don’t see him racking up another 300-yard game. The Steelers’ defense is so good, and attacks so much, that Sproles is going to have to stay in for protection on third downs — and then, and only then, will he be able to check out of the backfield after he’s sure Philip Rivers won’t be taken off the field on a John Deer. Plus, the Pittsburgh cover units play hard. Don’t get me wrong, the guy was unstoppable last week (maybe the best all-around playoff performance of the last decade), but this week will be different. I would love to tell you whom I like in this game, but you have to wait until tomorrow.

0- Coaches who will interview for the Boston College job (PUSH)

Golly, what a mess in Beantown right now with head coach Jeff Jagodzinski. Now, I understand both sides of the argument in this scenario. On one hand, you can talk about loyalty and honoring your contract; on the other side, you can tell me that coaches can be fired at any time during their contracts. So, in saying that, what gives here? I say “zero” when it comes to interviews because B.C. will most likely hand the job to someone on the current coaching staff. Besides, who would really want to coach there? If an NFL job opens and your coach — who has NFL experience — wants to interview for his first head-coaching job in the NFL (maybe just to get a feel for the interview process), why not let him? Jagodzinski probably won’t get the job anyway, but it shows recruits that the coach they will play for is at least wanted by the NFL — and that goes a long way with 18-year-old kids. I was a Packer when Jags coached the tight ends at Lambeau, and I would bet that he lands on his feet as an assistant in the NFL — soon. Bye, bye, B.C.

2- Interceptions Kurt Warner throws against the Panthers (PUSH)

Turnovers have haunted Kurt Warner all season on the road. During the regular season, Warner threw 14 interceptions — 10 of them on the road. I was thinking about going with the OVER on this one, but I can’t see Kurt pulling a Brett Favre from the 2001 divisional match up with the Rams — hitting the six mark. Well, maybe he could, but I almost think that for some reason Kurt is going to have a pretty solid game under the lights in Charlotte. Then again, only throwing two picks in cold weather, at night, away from the pristine golf courses of Arizona might be a pretty solid night for Warner. We all remember how he played Thanksgiving night in Philly (3 picks) and that lovely day in New England in Week 16: 6-18-33 yards-1 INT. Maybe he will go out and prove me a loud-mouthed writer — or maybe he will make me look like I know what I’m talking about. In that case, I should probably bring up his numbers from the last time he played in Charlotte: 35-49-381-2TDs-1INT. Maybe I should re-think this, but no, I am standing firm. Kurt throws 2 picks.

2-Quarterbacks the Vikings will bring in this offseason (OVER)

Hey, Brad Childress, you need a quarterback in Minnesota — probably more than one. Tarvaris Jackson’s performance against Philly on Sunday was brutal: 15-35-164-1 INT. Those numbers aren’t good enough to win in September, so you can forget about the NFL playoffs. It just seems that the Vikes have a lot going for them — a dominant running back in Adrian Peterson, a solid offensive line and a defense that forces turnovers. The piece that’s missing is the quarterback. Sure, their receivers are average, or a little above, for this league, but a good quarterback -- a guy like Donovan McNabb or Matt Cassel -- instantly makes this team a Super Bowl contender. Plus, and this is a big plus for Childress, a quarterback who can play and win in the playoffs will probably save the coach’s job — because the Vikes not only have to return to the playoffs next year, they also might have to win one or two of those games if Childress wants to keep calling plays in that purple polo shirt of his.

34.5- Total points scored in the Ravens-Titans divisional match-up (UNDER)

That number, 34.5, is the current OVER coming out of Vegas for Saturday’s game in Nashville. C’mon, they can’t combine for that many points, can they? According to league numbers, the Ravens are giving up 15.2 points a game, while the Titans are giving up 14.6. I’m an English guy, so my math isn’t that great, but even I know that doesn’t add up to 34.5 points. Look, these are two of the best defenses in the NFL, and the only time I see this game climbing over that number is if Ed Reed starts returning picks to the house (not a stretch), Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco starts throwing picks in Ravens territory (he didn’t throw any last week) or if LenDale White starts breaking off 90-yard TD runs (probably not). This might be the hardest-hitting game you see this season, or next. Two teams that make their living knocking guys out of games and making quarterbacks feel more insecure than Britney Spears on stage. Tomorrow, the Big Puma and I will give you a score, but I’m having a hard time believing it will be more than a combined 34.5.

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