NFL Over/Under: Playing The Odds

Every Wednesday here at the National Football Post, we play the NFL odds. Today, it’s all NFC and AFC championship weekend talk: Westbrook, Fitzgerald, Flacco, bounties and more.

100- Rushing Yards for Brian Westbrook against Arizona (UNDER)

Suddenly, Brian Westbrook is being talked about because of his lack of production in the playoffs. Minus the screen pass he took for six to clinch the Eagles’ win over the Vikings in the wild-card round, Westbrook has been silent in the run game — deadly silent. But the Eagles are 2-0 in the playoffs and find themselves traveling to Arizona for the NFC championship. So as I sit here and write this, does it really matter? Actually, it does, because to contain Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin (if he plays), you have to control the clock on offense. The Eagles need Westbrook to run the football productively or they will again have to rely on Donovan McNabb to get them out of trouble. Is McNabb going to have to do it for a third straight week? That’s the question, and my answer is a resounding yes. Westbrook gets shut down again.

4- Bounties put out by the Ravens this week (PUSH)

Y’all remember this story, right? Terrell Suggs decided to tell the media (nice move, buddy) that he and his Ravens defensive teammates were putting a bounty on Steelers wideout Hines Ward. ESPN took it and ran with it, sports radio couldn’t get enough of it, and columns rained down on your desktop about how the Ravens were a “dirty” team. Please, folks, let’s slow down for a moment. If you don’t think that Suggs, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and the rest of the Ravens are going to be gunning for Ward, Willie Parker, Ben Roethlisberger, the equipment guy, the dudes who hold the chains and so on, you’re missing the point. This is part of the NFL, and this is why the AFC is head and shoulders above the NFC when it comes to physical football. I threw up the number four, but it could include everyone in Pittsburgh — even the fans. So if you’re sitting in the front row of Heinz Field on Sunday night waving your towel, keep you head on a swivel because “Ray-Ray” might get you.

125- Receiving Yards for Larry Fitzgerald (OVER)

This is the type of game where Fitzgerald can show us why he should be mentioned with Texans wideout Andre Johnson as the best in the league — and Sunday might push him to the top of the list. Look, we all know how the Eagles play defense: pressure, pressure and more pressure. They intimidate with Brian Dawkins, they rush with a tough front four and they hold onto their butts in the back end with Asante Samuel, Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown. Have fun, boys. Maybe y’all think that number is too high, but you’ve seen Fitzgerald go up and catch almost any ball thrown to him by Kurt Warner. It doesn’t matter if he has a guy hanging all over him — or two guys — as we saw last week in Carolina. The guy makes plays. Don’t expect Philly to change the way it plays defense, but do expect Fitzgerald to get his number of touches and a number of deep balls. I see a big day coming from the Arizona stud.

2- Interceptions thrown by Joe Flacco against the Steelers (PUSH)

The gig is up for the rookie from Delaware. He is the first rookie quarterback ever to win two playoff games, but I don’t see that success continuing this weekend in Pittsburgh. Against the Steelers this season, Flacco has been sacked seven times and threw two picks in their 13-9 loss at home late in the regular season. I wrote yesterday about how impressed I’ve been with head coach John Harbaugh and the way he’s handled his team this season, but sooner or later Flacco is going to have to drive this team down the field to win in the playoffs. I see that opportunity presenting itself on Sunday night — if he doesn’t put the Ravens in too deep a hole making mistakes with the ball. I will go more into detail about this match-up later today in my AFC Championship Notes, but for now, expect Flacco to give it away a time or two. He can’t win another one, can he?

3- Helmet-to-Helmet hits in Pittsburgh on Sunday Night (UNDER)

As much as I want the Steelers-Ravens game to turn into a WWE match — complete with “Buried Alive” and “Steel Cage Matches” at halftime -- players from both teams know what’s at stake. Maybe you’ll see one or two knockout blows to defenseless receivers, but a 15-yard penalty in what’s expected to be a low-scoring defensive game is too much to risk. Maybe we’re hyping this game too much in the media, but let’s be honest — it should be the best football game you watch this season, if you like hitting, kicking, scuffles and so on. But for all of the bounties, cheap shots, body bags and CSI episodes I try to conjure up in my posts, there is a trip to Tampa on the line here. I guess I’ll watch as my two sons go at it in the family room instead.

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