With less than two weeks remaining until the NFL Draft, here is the National Football Post’s latest three-round mock draft. Rumors and misinformation are flying wildly at this time of year, so let’s try to make sense of any possible scenarios that could play out on draft weekend. Also, be sure to register for the NFP's 2009 NFL Draft Contest.
Round One
1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Now that the Jay Cutler trade has gone down and Detroit still doesn’t have a franchise quarterback, it looks like the Lions will bite the bullet and nab one with the first overall pick. Stafford has been the consensus top-rated quarterback on most teams’ draft boards the past year and appears to be the future QB for a team in need of one.
2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
The Rams have holes on both sides of the ball and could go in several directions with this pick. However, Smith instantly improves their offensive line and should give the team’s top offensive playmakers more time to make plays.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest
No matter what defensive scheme the Chiefs line up in this year, they need to add more talent to their front seven. Curry possesses the versatility to be effective in both a 3-4 and 4-3 scheme and should give the Chiefs’ new defensive coordinator, Clancy Pendergast, a lot of options up front.
4. Seattle Seahawks: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Seattle had a number of its front-office executives present at the USC pro day and look to be focusing on Trojans QB Mark Sanchez. The Seahawks would be an ideal fit for Sanchez to learn the game under starter Matt Hasselbeck’s tutelage.
5. Cleveland Browns: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
The Browns have lost a lot of talent at their skill positions this offseason, and with the possibility of WR Braylon Edwards also leaving, a replacement needs to be found. Enter Crabtree, one of the draft’s premier talents who should pay instant dividends in the pass game.
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
The Bengals strike gold as Monroe falls into their laps at pick No. 6. He’s the top-rated overall prospect on my board and has the body control, athletic ability and technique to develop into one of the game’s top left tackles.
7. Oakland Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Maclin is one of the draft’s top vertical threats and has the deep speed to consistently create plays down the field. The Raiders need to find a legit target for QB JaMarcus Russell, and Maclin fits the bill.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Raji has come under the microscope recently because of allegations of a failed drug test at the NFL Combine. But those allegations are considered rumors, and I doubt a talent like him slips out of the top 10 in this defensive tackle-starved draft class.
9. Green Bay Packers: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
The Packers need to address their defensive front seven with the ninth overall pick and likely will have plenty of options at that spot. Orakpo is an impressive physical specimen who should improve the Packers’ pass rush off the edge.
10. San Francisco 49ers: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
Maybin is one of the draft’s top pass rushers and possesses the length, burst and awareness to be a consistent factor off the edge. Plus, he is only 21 years old and will continue to develop physically in the coming years.
11. Buffalo Bills: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
Ayers has skyrocketed up draft boards all year and looks to be sitting comfortably in the top 15. He offers the Bills a physical presence in the run game but also knows how to get after the passer on third down.
12. Denver Broncos: Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
The Broncos have a lot of possibilities, but no guarantees, on their roster for the OLB position in their new 3-4 defense. Brown should be able to come in and instantly improve the Denver pass rush off the edge. He’s a gifted athlete with a good burst and knows how to create havoc behind the line of scrimmage.
13. Washington Redskins: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
No team may be locked into a position more than the Redskins. They need to improve their overall talent on the offensive line and add some much needed youth. I don’t know if Smith has the overall athleticism to play left tackle, but he would definitely be a welcomed improvement at either guard or right tackle.
14. New Orleans Saints: Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
With only one pick in the first three rounds, expect the Saints to opt for an instant impact player who can step in and make a difference next year. Wells is a big, physical back who should add the type of physical dimension needed in the Saints’ rushing attack.
15. Houston Texans: Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi
The Texans have invested so many resources in their defensive line the past couple of years but haven’t gotten the type of production they expected in return. The addition of Jerry shouldn’t come as a surprise because until Houston improves the play of its front four, it will struggle defensively.
16. San Diego Chargers: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
The Chargers have consistently invested high draft picks in their defensive front seven, and this year won’t be any different. Jackson is an ideal fit in the Chargers’ 3-4 defense and has the frame, length and power to start from day one.
17. New York Jets: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
The Jets need to find a downfield threat in the passing game, and Heyward-Bey looks like this draft’s best bet.
18. Denver Broncos (from Chicago): Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Denver needs to continue upgrading its defensive front seven, but a talent like Jenkins is simply too good to pass up. He has the ability to start for the Broncos from day one, plus he gives the Denver coaching staff some versatility in the secondary.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
Freeman marks the start of a new era for Bucs football and has the tools to develop into a big-time NFL passer. But he’s raw and needs time to sit on the bench and learn behind a seasoned vet.
20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas): Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi
The Lions need to find some protection for their new face of the franchise, and Oher possesses the necessary skill set for the left tackle spot. He may need some time to develop into the position, but he’s an upgrade over anything the Lions have.
21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Brian Westbrook turns 30 this year, and the Eagles should be in the market for his future replacement. Enter Moreno, one of the most instinctive running backs in years. He offers a rare blend of vision, balance and quickness at the line and also does a nice job in the receiving game.
22. Minnesota Vikings: Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
Minnesota needs to improve the overall talent on the right side of its offensive line, and Britton certainly fits the bill. He’s a tall, physically built tackle with smooth feet and good base strength on the outside. He’s a bit short-armed but projects nicely to either tackle spot in the NFL.
23. New England Patriots: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
The Patriots added some veteran bodies to the cornerback position this offseason, but Butler seems like too good a fit for New England to pass up. He showcases the ability to be effective in both man and zone schemes and he does a great job supporting the run. The Patriots don’t have many needs, but a player like Butler just seems to fit.
24. Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
Pettigrew’s skill set is rare among NFL tight ends, as he has the ability to not only make plays through the air but can also be a factor in the run game. The Falcons got very little production from the position last year (19 catches), and Pettigrew has the ability to definitely improve their tight end production across the board.
25. Miami Dolphins: Sean Smith, CB/FS, Utah
If we’ve learned anything from Bill Parcells over the years, it’s that he loves big, physical prospects. And no cornerback in this year’s class is bigger than Utah’s Smith. He has the makings of an ideal press cover man and does a great job using his length to re-route receivers at the line of scrimmage. He also has the versatility to play FS and will definitely fill a role in the Miami secondary.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC
The Ravens have some players who could potentially replace MLB Bart Scott (Jameel McClain, Tavares Gooden), but if a player like Maualuga falls to them at No. 26, expect the Ravens to think twice. Maualuga is an ideal fit in Baltimore’s 3-4 scheme and has the ability to take on blocks in the run game and get after the QB vs. the pass.
27. Indianapolis Colts: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri
The Colts really struggled with the play of their interior defensive line last year, and some talent needs to be added to the mix. Hood is an ideal one-gap lineman and should have no problem fitting in the Colts’ defense. He does a great job firing off the ball, shooting gaps and creating plays in the backfield, exactly the type of inside defender they need.
28. Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina): William Beatty, OT, Connecticut
The Eagles saw both their starting offensive tackles leave this offseason and still have some questions at the left tackle position. Beatty is a tall, long-armed lineman with good feet and athleticism outside. He has the ability to mature into a starting-caliber left tackle and is a nice value at the end of round one.
29. New York Giants: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
The Giants have already brought in Harvin for a private workout and could use his skill set in a number of ways on offense.
30. Tennessee Titans: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
The Titans have a need at defensive tackle, but with a talent like Davis still on the board, they may elect to wait to address the DT position. Davis is one of the most athletically gifted corners in the draft, but concerns about his technique and maturity level could cause him to fall.
31. Arizona Cardinals: Clay Matthews, OLB, USC
The Cardinals love to run a number of different defensive looks with their front seven, and adding a versatile defender like Matthews should only help increase the Cardinals’ pressure up front.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jarron Gilbert, DT, San Jose State
The Steelers need to add some youth to their defensive line as all three starters are over 30. Enter Gilbert, a tall, long-armed lineman with the athleticism to develop into one of the game’s top five-technique defensive ends.
Round Two
33. Lions: James Laurinaitis, ILB, Ohio State
Should be able to man the middle spot from day one.
34. Patriots (From Kansas City): Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
Gives the Pats some versatility at the linebacker position.
35. Rams: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
The Rams need a physical target to go along with their vertical threats.
36. Browns: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
A fluid corner who instantly upgrades the Cleveland secondary.
37. Seahawks: Connor Barwin, DE, Cincinnati
A versatile athlete who should improve Seattle’s pass rush.
38. Bengals: Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut
The Bengals need to find a more explosive running back.
39. Jaguars: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
Will Britt finally be the answer to the Jaguars’ receiving problems?
40. Raiders: Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
The type of rare physical athlete the Raiders love.
41. Packers: Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
Gives the Packers one of the few true nose tackles in the draft.
42. Bills: Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina
An explosive vertical threat who should add a big-play dimension to the Bills’ passing attack.
43. 49ers: Max Unger, OL, Oregon
Gives the 49ers a talented offensive lineman who can play almost anywhere on the line.
44. Dolphins (From Washington): Larry English, OLB, Northern Illinois
Could end up going a lot earlier, but he’s an ideal pass rushing OLB in a 3-4 scheme.
45. Giants (From New Orleans): Shawn Nelson, TE, Southern Miss
Gives the Giants more of a big-play TE threat in the passing game.
46. Texans: Sherrod Martin, FS, Troy
A versatile DB who has the ability to play CB and FS.
47. Patriots (From San Diego): Alex Mack, C, California
A tough, blue-collar center who can play any of the interior O-line positions.
48. Broncos: Fili Moala, DT, USC
A big, long-armed lineman who should fill a void at the five-technique position in Denver.
49. Bears: Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma
Gives the Bears a big right tackle to groom for the future.
50. Browns (From Tampa Bay): LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh
Adds some much needed explosion to the Browns’ rushing attack.
51. Cowboys: William Moore, S, Missouri
The Cowboys are still in need of a playmaker at the safety position.
52. Jets: Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma
The Jets need to add some youth to their offensive line.
53. Eagles: Louis Delmas, FS, Western Michigan
A potential replacement for FS Brian Dawkins.
54. Vikings: D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt
One of the draft’s top corners who will slip due to concerns about his speed.
55. Falcons: Lawrence Sidbury Jr., DE, Richmond
A small-school riser who could give the Falcons the pass rush they need opposite John Abraham.
56. Dolphins: Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State
Wes - regarding your prediction of Orakpo to GB. You've been trending towards GB going OLB with that pick pretty much in every mock I've seen from you. I'm curious as to why this is? I'm not saying they don't need some upgrades in pass rushing but do you really think they're going to invest that much coin in a position that is really only going to be a situational guy in their scheme?
When you look at the other 3-4 systems, who exactly is it that has more than one dominant pass rushing LB? If GB didn't have Kampmann (the situation that the Niners and Broncos find themselves in), then the pick might make some sense but that isn't the case.
Love the 49ers picks, Unger in the second round is great! We get a guy who can play anywhere on the O-line. A pass rusher and a pyscial RB!
I hope this is how it really plays out!!!
Wes, as a Pats fan, I like this Mock much better than the last one. Cushing and Mack in Round 2 would be good value as would Pat White at the end of the 3rd. I know this is not a deep draft for defensive tackles and ends, but I still see BB picking at least one to address a long term need there. If Robert Ayers falls to 23 I think he's a perfect fit. He'll take over for Seymour next year at end and provide third down pass rush this year spelling Wilfork at nose.
Terrible. Was this last night's homework for your scouting class at Devry?
REMINDER: Wes Bunting has no actual scouting experience.
Wes the Broncos have 5 picks in the first 3 rounds, and there is no way two of them are going to be devoted to the secondary. Way too many needs at all positions in the front seven, plus expect them to draft a running back with one of those 5 picks.
Wes,
I think skaz has it right with the Bronco picks. If they go secondary / center instead of front 7 they're even bigger idiots than I think they are (for trading Cutler). I like the Jenkins pick, but beyond that they need DL and LB.
@scott m. -
"When you look at the other 3-4 systems, who exactly is it that has more than one dominant pass rushing LB? "
That would be the world champion Pittsburgh Steelers. With Harrison on one side and Woodley on the other, as well as Timmons coming up the middle, O-lines really have no idea which of those guys is going to come.
Perfect draft if you switch Ron Brace with a S like Chung. Sure Ron Brace is big, but he can't move, dude ran like a 5.6 40 and looked like he was moving in mud during the Combine. I think Brace is a massive reach in the 2nd I would much rather go with a guy who has a higher upside, somebody like Chris Baker from Hampton or Sammie Lee Hill from Stillman.
Love the rest though and if my Packers go OLB in the 1st, I have a gut feeling it's going to be either Orakpo or Larry English. Word out of GB is that they love English and think he can be a special player. Maybin is too much of a one trick pony and even though I like Everette Brown, I really don't think they'd take him.
Definitely an improvement from a Patriots perspective over the last draft, but I highly doubt they go with Cushing over Barwin at 34 if both are available. Also, while I'm very high on Andre Brown, I think the late second is too high for him, and given the Patriots depth at RB right now, it's hard to see them taking a back that early, given the lack of roster space. Taylor, Morris and Maroney and Faulk are all locks to make the roster, and Green-Ellis is lurking behind them. (And before anyone says Maroney isn't a lock, the Patriots don't release talented guys they have under contract for a discount price the next few years.) Swap out Cushing for Barwin and Meredith for Brown, and this would get my seal of approval for sure.
I'd like the Packers to look at Shonne Green of Iowa. Their running backs have been last in the league in short yardage. People like to blame it on the line but John Kuhn has been 4 of 6 and Aaron Rodgers has been 100% so the line is not getting pushed back like people think. Unless Deshawn Wynn of Kregg Lumpkin is going to be their short yardage guy, they should look at Green.
Skaz and Romo:
The Broncos have needs everywhere on defense and I wanted to make sure they got the best values on that side of the ball. I did give them an OLB and DE up front and they have a lot of bodies to play with. Not saying those guys on their rosters will work out, but they do have some options up front. Therefore, I just didn't want to thrust 4 of their first 5 picks all in the defensive front seven. But I definitely know where you guys are coming from and it's a very reasonable point. I wanted to give them a nose tackle, but no one on the board warranted a selection, so I figure they would wait.
Scott M: A lot of teams like Orakpo to stand up in the OLB role in the 3-4. Plus on 3rd downs the Packers will likely play with four down lineman and let Kampman and Orakpo put their hand on the ground.
Dan: Curry has the ability to play inside or outside in the 3-4 scheme and gives the defense a lot of versatility. They can flip-flop between four and three men lines and always keep Curry on the field. He gives them a play-maker in the front seven, something they dont have.
Wes -
I think you hit the Colts draft right on the head. I think they will jump all over Peria Jerry or Evander Hood if available at the back end of round 1. Then they'll look to add pass rushing depth and a polished WR to the mix.
Argh, my comment was lost the first time around, so I'll post a condensed version: Big improvement from a Patriots perspective, but Barwin should go to them over Cushing, Brown is an unlikely selection even though I really like him as a player, since they are currently loaded at the position and there's no roster spot for another back, and they're probably more likely to go after a tackle than an interior lineman. Swap Barwin for Cushing and Meredith for Brown, and it gets my seal of approval. Also, I still think Gilbert at 23 is more likely than Butler, but I like both players a lot, and I'd be happy with either.
All the "top" pass rushers have flaws (for our 3-4 D...Niners). Orapko's stiff, Brown's undersized, Maybin who I don't know much about I hear has small hips so will not be able to put much more weight on + he's too skinny (a la Manny Lawson when he first came out) to go up against bigger NFL linemen.
My wish scenario is if Sanchez falls to us & we could trade down, get an extra pick, & get LARRY ENGLISH in the mid-lower 1st RD.
Are you kidding me Alex Mack is still on the board in the 2nd RD??? Booyah, he's my pick instead of Unger. I like the RB Jennings pick in the 3rd...another option came up for me there. Kory Sheets, BLAZING speedster at around 210 lbs I really like. We can get another workhorse like an Arian Foster/TENN in the later rounds if we still want to go for one.
Enjoy throwing the names around. Man 2 weeks away. Can't wait to get this thing ON!!
Sorry...I saw Unger & immediately thought of MY center (also guard) Mack. We need an OT!
Beatty (if he slips) or Merideth in the 2nd RD.
OR Donald Brown (YESSSSSS) if he slips to us in the 2nd RD then OT Tupou in the 3rd.
GREAT STUFF AS USUAL WES!
Bless you Wes. Not sure if San Diego will take Jackson at 16, but your justification is the first logical choice I've seen applied to their pick. They're NOT going to take a RB at 16 and with the signing of Burnett, LB isn't as high a priority anymore. I also ferverently hope you're correct that they get Chung in the 3rd. That would be huge for a defensive backfield that couldn't punch its way through construction paper last year.
Okay, now after a refresh my initial comment appears again. No clue what what happened there.
Zander, man, I love that you're a Patriots fan, but your draft ideas for the team scare me. First Harvin, now Robert Ayers as a 5 technique end and nose tackle? That's just crazy. Ayers has good bulk for a conventional DE, and there was some talk prior to the Senior Bowl of him as a 3-4 end, but he's small and lacks the strength to play that spot as a 2-gapper in the 3-4, and he doesn't have the frame to get that much bigger without losing the burst that makes him so attractive. Plus, the Pats have Jarvis Green and Mike Wright already as 3rd down nose tackles, with Green being an excellent rusher from the position. I agree Seymour is likely gone after this year, since Wilfork and Mankins need to get paid, but his replacement is not going to be Ayers, if for no other reason than the fact that he'll never reach the Patriots at 23.
Oh & the other top pass rusher I forgot to add who has a flaw for us is Akers. His measurables & talent as you mentioned before Wes is more suited for the 4-3.
Barwin's too high in the 1st RD for me. He'll need 1-2 years of knowledgeable good coaching for him to properly develop. He's still too raw as a 3-4 OLB rusher.
Wes,
I hope the Falcons don't go with Pett, but if he is the best player on their board then I can live with it. I would rather see Sean Smith in Atl. Didn't you have him in their last time?
Hi Wes,
I ike your picks for the Pats, it would be fascinating to see how they would utilize players like James Casey and Pat White. I would like to see them go defense in the first two rounds, all four of these players are a good fit for their base 3-4/zone scheme.
#23 Rey Maualuga (ILB USC)- Get younger at LB and more explosive at LB and will look great next to Mayo (who can stay on the field all 3 downs). Can learn from Bruschi.
#34 Connor Barwin (OLB/DE/TE Cincinnati)- They get more talent at ILB in rd 1 and STILL get the extremely versatile/athletic OLB/TE prospect they covet in rd 2.
#47 Ron Brace (NT/DT Boston College)- Quality depth at 3-4 NT can be hard to come by. Brace provides them with a quality 2-gap run stuffing presence.
#58 Macho Harris (CB/S VT)- A versatile (CB/S/Return Man), productive (15 INT, 22 PBU) player who has excellent quickness (3.98 shuttle and 6.68 3 cone), instincts and zone skills.
beauli7, I like Rey, but do you really want to see the Pats spend a first round pick on a 2 down player? If they didn't already have Mayo, I could somewhat see it, and they do need a real thumper to put next to him, but I can't see them spending that pick on Maualuga, unless they think he can upgrade their interior pass rush a lot. Also, I was an early proponent of Brace, but he's overvalued right now. 47 is way too high for him, given his back injury and lack of rush skills. I liked him as a 3rd round prospect, but not in the high to mid second. I'd rather they take a flier on a guy like Sammie Lee Hill in the 5th or 6th, who has the same size and more athleticism but is raw, then spend such a high pick on a such a one dimensional player with injury issues.
Wes,
What are your thoughts regarding Ayers as end in the 3-4, specifically for the Pats? He's a bit smaller (6'3" and 275) than Seymour and Warren (both over 6'5" and 300 lbs) and I know BB likes them tall but he seems to hold up pretty well in the middle and against the run. Some analyst have suggested he might be able to move around the line ala Justin Tuck.
Hey Guys, lot of good stuff and critiques, I will try to answer some questions the best I can, but there are so many I can't get to all of them.
Eric Green: I did have Smith going to them last time, but I feel like with a dual TE like Pettigrew on the board and the lack of production Atl got from the TE position, it is a good fit.
Bryan: Jackson could be there in round one, he is an ideal 3-4 DE and gives the Chargers a nice replacement for Igor Olshansky
Pats Fans: One thing to take into consideration, with so much talent on the roster, I can't see them actually drafting all this many players. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see them package and move up throughout the draft to target guys they like. IF...IF Raji slips he might be a guy they target with Wilfork being a FA at the end of the year. Just a thought.
Brandon Tate doesn't go in the first 3 rounds? (He is a top 5 WR in my book)
Clint Sintim goes in the 3rd round? (He will be gone by the early 2nd)
Seattle takes Mark Sanchez at #4 over Eugene Monroe WITHOUT trading back? (They will be addressing their deficiency at offensive tackle or at least trading back if they want Sanchez instead, it makes ZERO sense to take a risk on a signal-caller with that amount of experience at #4 - See Alex Smith, SF)
Jacksonville, which runs the 4-3, and has numerous other needs snatches up Raji, who has character issues and does not fit their scheme? (John Henderson, DT, JAX - 6'8" 315 lbs, Raji, DT, 6'2" 335 lbs, Raji will go to a 3-4 team)
The Texans take yet another DT with their selection of Jerry, while NOT trading back? (At 15, Perry would be a huge reach - not to mention part of a giant DT rotation...of 1st round picks)
Beanie Wells goes ahead of Knowshon Moreno? (Where have you been the last 3 months? - it might happen, but it would be a HUGE mistake)
Tell me again: why do you not work in the NFL?
(Note: check back after draft day and tell me if I was right on any of these questions)
I think you hit the nail on the head, Wes. There is no way the Patriots take all 11 picks. They'll move at least one of them, probably a second rounder, forward a year, for another first, which has been their modus operandi in recent years, and move around with their other picks to grab the guys they want to groom for the future. I don't think Wilfork is going anywhere though, Seymour is the one who they're most likely to let walk. And I'm not sure Raji is really a fit for them as a NT anyway. He's only superficially similar to Wilfork. If they can't consumate the long negotiated contract with Wilfork, look for the franchise tag to be broken out again.
How about something like this:
Patriots trade 23 and 89 to Arizona for 31 and 63, and select Jarron Gilbert at 31. Patriots select Barwin at 34, trade 47 back to the Chargers for a 2010 1st and 2009 5th, and the Chargers select William Moore. Patriots trade Chargers 5th, a 2010 3rd and 58 for 43 from the Niners and take Unger there, then move 63 to pick up a replacement 3rd and a 2010 pick, and the remaining late picks are training camp fodder. That fits the pattern of their recent draft maneuverings, I think.
Of course, knowing Belichick, he'll surprise us all again and they'll take all 11 picks and 8+ will make the roster.
Also:
Jamon Meredith will go much higher than that.
Wes,
Thanks for posting the latest rendition of the mock draft. I'm not sold on the Orakpo to GB move yet - I think they'd be more likely to draft Andre Smith, despite his offseason faux pas.
I'm a big fan of Larry English though, and I also think he'd be the Packers pick in the second round - if he was still available - and not Ron Brace.
RockInRio
Wes-
Great job on 107.5 The Fan (in Green Bay) the other day! I enjoyed your insight, you'll have to get on the air with Rookie and Bill more often.
However; I don't like the selection of Brian O-sack-po at #9 for the Pack. I'm getting a feeling Orakpo might become this years Vernon Gholston(A work-out warrior, with no production). Besides, after reading your 3-4 Specialties article, the quality of Linebackers, both inside and outside, are deep. I think the Pack could acquire a Lb later, like a Clint Sintim, Antonio Appleby, or a Jasper Brinkley.
I am really leaning towards the Packers selecting either Raji, Tyson Jackson, or now, Jarron Gilbert at #9. I was surprised to see Gilbert rated higher than Jackson. Could you please respond to your analysis of rating Gilbert ahead of Jackson?
Also, is Jarron Gilbert a reach a #9, should the Packers be stuck with the pick?
Thanks for your response,
Crayzee C in Kaukauna, WI
Roy - exactly, but Pittsburgh ended up with that combination completely by accident. Timmons and Woodley were both drafted in 2007 before Harrison ever had a significant full season of play. Timmons blitzes regularly now but that isn't why they drafted him in the first round, he only had something like 8 sacks in all of college. Woodley on the other hand has a true pass rusher in college (25 career sacks in college) - so they waited on him until the middle of the second round. And this was a team where nobody had more than 7 sacks the year prior to this draft. It should also be noted that Timmons and Woodley combined for a total of zero starts in their rookie year.
In GB, we're talking about a run defense that ranked 26th last season, giving up over 130yds per game. A team with significant issues are OT. A team that doesn't even have enough bodies to compose a credible D-line rotation. A team with an aging secondary. Do you really think a situational guy that many scouts don't even think will pan out is worth a #9?
Very good looking mock and breakdown, Wes - Liking the notation of Wilfork being in a contract year as well -
I still believe Everette Brown will be the first pass rush end off the board - And I would be very surprised if Denver doesn't take an offensive player in round one at either 12 or 18 -
And to whomever was saying the Jags are strictly a 4 3 D - New DC Mel Tucker and HC Jack Del Rio are both on record saying that they are gonna run some 3 4 scheme this year - Which is a big part of Tuckers background under Romeo Crennel -
One question though - Is the Robiskie pick a make up for the firing his old man? :)
Quick add - This is not to say Raji is only limited to a 3 4 scheme, obviously -
I sure hope the Giants' draft looks markedly different than this, as that would be a disappointing batch to my eyes.
I just don't see the Browns passing up Larry English, if available in the second round, if they do indeed take Crabtree in the first. The defense needs a pass rusher in the worst way.
Richter,
You don't like my projections, who do you project them taking in the first 2-3 rounds?
I don't see the Bears taking an OT with their first pick after signing 3 FA O-linemen this year and drafting an OT with their first pick last year.
The Bears need a WR, FS and DE, in that order. I'd be pretty surprised if their first pick wasn't one of those 3 positions.
I think the only consensus that can be reached on this draft is that it should definitely be entertaining because other than 2 of the first three picks, there is no consensus on this draft. Smith and Curry will be two of the top three picks but otherwise, all bets are off this year.
Lot of teams with ammo to trade up, lot of teams that really want to trade down. Very few skill position players of high caliber and lots of teams wanting them. Very few d-linemen of high caliber and lots of teams wanting them. Should be interesting.
Wes, I don't see the Giants selecting Harvin over Nicks in round one. Although he possesses great speed, Harvin is small and unpolished as a wide receiver. The Giants, in my opinion, are more likely to select a taller, more physical, polished receiver like Nicks. The Gmen don't need another project at receiver(see Sinorice Moss, Mario Manningham), they need a player who can come in and contribute right away.
Well, I like your Barwin pick, and I'd like Maualuga if they traded back for him, but of course, there's no guarantee that he'd be there. I don't dislike the players you chose, I just think they're not necessarily good values where you have them being selected. You can check out my reply to Wes above with a scenario involving trades, but if you want just straight picks, I'd do this right now:
23: Jarron Gilbert, DE/DT. The best fit at 5 technique DE, highest upside of any of the tackle conversions, college production, fills a moderate need and prepares the team for Seymour's departure. I truly believe this is who the Patriots are targeting right now.
34: Connor Barwin, LB. No change there. If he's off the board, Larry English would work too.
47: William Moore, S. I really think they move this pick, but if not, there are a lot of players I like here. I've been a William Moore fan for a while, despite his lackluster senior year, which was more the fault of Missouri's coaching staff than anything. I think Delmas is overrated and this is too high for Chung. I could just as easily see an offensive lineman here, like Unger or Mack, or a tackle like Meredith, or even a cornerback. For now, though I like Moore to compliment Meriweather in the secondary.
58: Jamon Meredith, OT. Not sure he'll last this long, but he's a natural fit for the Patriots zone blocking scheme, he allows the team to move Kaczur inside in a year's time to replace Neal (or he can play there himself), and eventually projects as Light's replacement at LT.
89: Jonathan Luigs, C/OG. Fits the Patriots draft profile for interior linemen. Athletic, with the ability to pull and get to the second level. Perfect fit for a zone blocking scheme. Not a road grader, but he can block. High football IQ.
97: Derrick Williams, WR. I'm not a huge fan of him, but he strikes me as the kind of guy Belichick will draft. More quick than fast, but has some downfield potential, wasn't overly productive in college but projects well to the pros. I could see him following in the footsteps of Branch, or Bethel Johnson and Chad Jackson.
124: Jasper Brinkley, ILB. One of my favorites in this draft, and a natural guy pair up next to Mayo. Thick frame but can run, can take on blockers, stack, shed and get to the ball carrier. A two down guy who could eventually stay on the field on third down too, but won't need to all the time with Mayo there. But against teams that like to run no-huddle to keep the defense from substituting (hello, Colts), his ability to cover some will be a big added bonus.
159: Sammie Lee Hill, NT. Mentioned him earlier. He's huge and athletic, and raw. Really raw. All he can do is bull rush right now, but supposedly he picked up a spin move just from coaching sessions at the Senior Bowl. Looks like Wilfork facially, but is taller and a little leaner. Could be a real diamond in the rough after some development. Is one of the few DTs in this class with the triangle numbers to compare to a guy like Wilfork.
That's based on who I like and who I think the Patriots will draft. But I don't expect them to take even half of those picks in their original slots, the Pats will move around a lot. I just really think that with the 23rd pick, they'll be looking for a three down guy, probably defensive, who'll be able to play for them in a year. As nice as it would be to have Maualuga to play SILB next to Mayo, I just can't see the Pats making that kind of investment in him to only play two downs.
WES-
please man, STOP putting orakpo at the #9 slot to GB. ugh. i hope to god if andre smith is available TT takes him. he is really the only guy i want @#9. do you really not think TT will go for him? thompson has said that he likes the guys we have at LB, and we have a big issue at RT and another big issue could arise at LT any day with cliftons knees. andre smith @#9 may not only be the BPA but he would also fit a specific need better than orakpo, brown, maybin, or even ayers, who all still have major questions about how they would do in the NFL as a 3-4 OLB....any thoughts???
brett(NJ)-
if ron brace i too big of a reach for you in round 2, how do you justify taking sammie lee hill? we need a NT and there are a very select few in this draft. S is not enough of a problem to adress it in round 2.(but we all said that last year about WR, eh?)
crayzee c-
absoluetly glbert is a reach at #9, he could be considered a reach anywhere in the first round. tyson jackson would not be as much of a reach, but he prolly is a better value between 15-20. same with larry english, so don't be suprised if either of those two guys goes @#9.
scott m-
i agree, i think there may be quitea few draft day trades involving players and picks. this years draft has a different feal than the last few. no clear cut #1, no clear cut top 10 even. guy we think will go in round one could slip to the end of round 2, and guys we think should be 2nd or 3rd round guys could get picked late in the first.
is it the 25th yet?
Wes YOU DA MAN! haha I love your mocks, do you feel that Chris Clemons is a better Safety than Rashad Johnson or just feel that the Raiders would rather pick Clemons over Johnson?
You have projected Johnson to the Raiders in the 3rd for awhile now and as a fan I love that pick, I see a little Ed Reed in him.
Jeremiah: TT was at the Texas pro day if I recall. I do not like Orakpo at the OLB position as well, but I think TT might do it if he is there.
Charles: I like Rashad Johnson A LOT more then Clemons, however Clemons ran 4.33 at the Combine and that could be enough for the Raiders.
Wes - I wouldn't read much into TT attending the Texas Pro Day, he tends to be more active in the scouting process than most GMs. Gil Brandt made a big deal about TT being impressed with the workout and his comments about that got reprinted everywhere but he says that stuff about players he isn't going to take all the time.
I still find it funny that everyone says that Orakpo is stiff but his 3 cone, chuttle, 10yd and 20yd time are among the best of any OLB!
How can you be so stiff and have such great change of direction?
Wes - I love your Packer picks except #41. I would take English, William Morre, Sidbury, Mack or Nelson there. I just don't like Brace there, not strong enough for his size and you can get 3 or 4 others just like him in round 4-6
Jack, Orakpo didn't put up any of those numbers aside from the 40 splits at the combine, since he was hurt. I assume you mean his pro day numbers? I put a little less stock into those, but I agree, he's not as stiff as some are making him out to be. I still think his future is with his hand on the ground, though, not as a rush linebacker.
Sean Smith, Sherrod Martin, Coye Francies, Darcel McBath, Pegues ALL played CB and safety to high levels. Each should be really good at their position cast by their teams as a result. Better coverage than most FS and superior tackling for corners, the players you can hide coverage with due their ability to do just that and switch cover assignments on motion.
If Dallas goes needs first and drafts a guy who has one good year under his belt, instead of one of the great interior defensive linemen or several impressive OL who will still be there, they probably miss out protecting Romo.
It's his team now, and unless you strengthen that wall in front of him, all the D in the world isn't going to help.
Agreed in comments that Gilbert should catapult upwards with everyone playing 3-4 now. Agreed with Kike that Jenkins is out of the top 2 CB positions, Smith is more physical than he, and Butler is a superior coverage comparison who tackles good as any.
You've got ears working in Oakland, Clemons has been an invite target there. Speed kills.
Jerry, Marks, Hood are all great interior prospects and teams can win with any of them added, there may be some position switches there for who is taken when but all of them should make solid picks.
If the Steelers get Wood and Gilbert 1-2 someone is telling people not to touch those picks because they should be taken ahead of that.
Good job Wes! Orakpo and Brace would be a good 1/2 pick for GB. Brace isn't Raji, but Raji was as successful becuase Brace was eating up blockers. GB has no NT, and it's not a given Pickett can handle it.
I would ignore certain people who are whining about you and scouting experience. I'm guessing they don't have any either. Otherwise they wouldn't be posting on a message board under assumed names.
I was thinking they probably tested CUrry's splits with a hand on the ground to make him a pass rush end as well(learn it from Vrabel) because otherwise they'd have three first day linebackers and one of those spots is in essence a two down position for the nickle to come in....
Richter,
I prefer Maualuga over Gilbert in round 1. In fact I would rather have Tyson Jackson over Gilbert if I had my choice of both 5 techniques.
#34- I'm definitely with you on Barwin, I feel he could be the guy at 23 also if Maualuga is gone.
#47- I wouldn't be upset if they took Moore, but I prefer Patrick Chung and Rashad Johnson or even Chip Vaughn in the middle rounds..
#58- Meredith has a soft label on him. I'd much rather go after a player like TJ Lang in the middle rounds. He's a tough, physical versatile player who would better fit their scheme.
#89- I would prefer Antoine Caldwell to Luigs, but Luigs has a lot of experience in the SEC as well. You know the Belichick/Saban pipeline is about to be re-opened. The center I really like is Eric Wood (most likely to go late 1st early second) as he's the road grader type, physical and intense and spends a lot of time in the film room.
#97- I wouldn't hate the Williams pick, although I wasn't impressed with watching him at the combine on the nfl network. He didn't seem to catch the ball to well. I'm a fan of Juaquin Iglesias, think he'd be productive opposite Moss with Welker in the slot.
124 and 159, I like both picks. I think Brinkley and Hill are both sleepers that they will keep an eye on.
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Apr 13, 2009
12:46 PM
I see Aaron Curry going to KC at #3 in almost every mock draft. I just find it hard to believe that a non-pass rushing OLB is going to be given that much money and be that huge difference maker on D for the money that will be paid. I seem to be the only one questioning this so is it that I am missing something or am I on to something and everyone is just cut & pasting Curry to KC?