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Notes From Lombardi: Where To Next?

Michael Lombardi

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FROM MICHAEL LOMBARDI:

Where Jay Cutler will end up has been a continuing theme throughout the day.  Our own Matt Bowen gave an excellent account of all the teams that might be, and should be, involved.  This afternoon, I’d like to focus on the same theme but in a slightly different way. 

One thing to keep in mind, as I mentioned in the Diner this morning, is whom coach Josh McDaniels might want as his new quarterback.  Searching the landscape, I believe that Mark Sanchez could be his target, which I wrote this morning.  He resembles Matt Cassel in style and substance and has the smarts, the arm, the toughness and the decision-making ability to run the Patriots/Broncos offense.  McDaniels must have a target, and for me Sanchez fits the profile he would want in his quarterback. 

In one of my favorite movies, “The Godfather,” they use the term “going to the mattress,” which means there will be no end in sight until the business at hand is resolved.  Therefore, in the Jay Cutler Sweepstakes, some teams will be willing to “go to the mattress.” 

THE MATTRESS TEAMS...

New York Jets: The Jets fell in love with Brett Favre’s arm last year, and even their biggest fans (yes, that’s you, Yahoo Dave) feel they need a quarterback to keep competing with the Patriots and Dolphins.  The Jets had some interest in Cutler back in the draft, but clearly not enough to draft him at four when they selected D’Brickashaw Ferguson.  The Jets have a huge need, but they have very few assets to make them an attractive trading partner – and they don’t have a quarterback on the roster who would be to McDaniels’ liking.  The key to being able to make a trade for Cutler will center on who has the best way for McDaniels to get his “guy.”  Unless the Jets are willing to overpay, I can’t imagine they have enough ammunition to get a deal done.  However, it’s early, and the Jets have been willing to overpay before, so anything’s possible.  In addition, one thinks that history of trading for an established quarterback if he’s great is that you cannot overpay. 

Cleveland Browns: I know that everyone in Cleveland is in love with Brady Quinn, and Notre Dame coach Charlie Weiss has been solidly behind him, which may appeal to McDaniels.  Weiss can speak from authority on Quinn’s ability to run the Patriots’ offense -- if McDaniels trusts Weiss and his evaluation.  George Allen, the former Redskins coach had a great saying: “Evaluate the evaluator,” but that’s what we don’t know.  What does McDaniel think of Weiss’ evaluation of Quinn?  One thing that’s certain is that new Browns coach Eric Mangini is not sold on Quinn and is not convinced that he’s the Browns’ quarterback of the future -- a future that Mangini has been given the authority to control.  I think the reason the Browns have an advantage in this race is because they hold a very high pick that would allow McDaniels to get what he wants.  Mangini loved the big arm of Brett Favre last year, and he knows Cutler can make the same throws in the same style.  

Washington Redskins:  We all know that when Dan Snyder wants something, he’s willing to do whatever it takes to make it happen.  He’s a determined owner, and cost is never an issue, which would appeal to the Broncos.  The ‘Skins might believe in Jason Campbell as their quarterback today, but this is a risky belief at best.  Trading for Cutler would bring them a legitimate player, one who can transform the ‘Skins into Super Bowl contenders. Vinny Cerrato has a great relationship with former Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan, and I’m confident they’ve discussed Cutler in detail.  The ‘Skins are like the Jets, limited in assets to trade, and I don’t believe Campbell is someone McDaniels would want to build his team around.  However, the determination of Snyder is not to be overlooked, and the fact the Broncos would not have to play against Cutler very often makes Washington a viable option. 

Chicago Bears: For me, this is a no-brainer for the Bears.  They need a signature player, and they need a franchise player who can rejuvenate their offense and breathe life into the team.  But it’s not the Bears’ style to go to the mattress. It’s risky and it might backfire, but in reality, what options do they have?  I like Kyle Orton -- I really do -- but he has to be handled carefully, and the system defines his talents.  The Bears must be bold and understand that all the players on their team are instantly better once they improve the quarterback position.  It’s like having a playmaking point guard in basketball; he makes the other players much better.  If they continue down this path, the Bears will be a good team. But they’ll never be great team until they fix the QB situation. 

Comments

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Mr.Murder
Apr 01, 2009
07:32 PM

The market will shape the trade. Because top ten picks are so expensive the Rams giving their no.2 would clear them paying out the huge bonus money and tags them onto Cutler's deal.

That's also why Detroit should want out of no 1 overall, but the Rams would be a better position in cap terms for such a deal. From the perspective of who signs the player picked at that spot traded, moving away from one overall and still being able to secure one of the passers is what should win the deal.

Because of cap costs inside the top ten you may end up making a trade below point compensation. The agent has made it about more than compensation, he's going for sake of being gone now. That might mean you take an offer that positions you to get one of the best passers in the most affordable terms.

To me, Stafford shows a lot of Cutler in him. Similar release and mechanics, similar style and attitude. Both have something to prove with critics to an extent.


They may be better pure passers than Sanchez, but the toughness, mobility, leadership skills in a pro style offense all make Sanchez the player to get IMO.


For Detroit, they need a pure passer who can get the ball to CJ. To me it looks like Sanchez can bring more to a game plan at the red zone and his learn curve already has experience with a pro set. Neither choice is really wrong from where they sit, and it probably comes down to talking with agents(like Bus Cook is doing at this time for Cutler as well).

mark f
Apr 01, 2009
08:14 PM

Michael what do you think of Quinn?

Big Blue I agree that Quinn would do well with McDaniels. I believe it to be a good fit, but if the Browns don't like him, that has to worry others you would think.

I can't see an early 20's 1st and a 3rd getting this done. I've heard people say that and IMO you gotta do better if you're the Broncos.

The Bears are out of their minds if they're not all over this.

Jeff
Apr 01, 2009
09:01 PM

If the Broncos really are interested in Sanchez...
(total Dark horse possiblity)
Three team deal:
Cutler to Arizona
Warner to 49ers
Zona's 1st round pick (31) to 49ers
Zona's 2nd round pick (63) to Broncos
Zona's 2nd round pick in next year's draft to Broncos
49ers 1st round pick (10) to Broncos
49ers 4th round pick to Zona

Too crazy?

Mr.Murder
Apr 01, 2009
09:11 PM

Dale Mathieson
April 1, 2009
2:51 pm
"I honestly think that any trade for Cutler will be a 3 (three) way trade. The three teams involved would be Cleveland, Detroit, and Denver.

Denver sends Cutler to Detroit.

Detroit sends their 21st (or 20th?) to Cleveland, and a 3rd or 4th round pick to Denver.

Cleveland sends Brady Quinn to Denver.

All of this makes sense only because of Quinn’s experiance in a Charlie Wiess offense, which happens to be the same as the one McDaniels plans to implement in Denver."

<<<NFP comments on Matt's thread that Mike links. It makes sense, Weiss system for Quinn and they are suddenly cheaper on the cap, McDaniels wins twice over. Extra value with it and they can even shape the future to add next year's great passer if things don't work out. A plan with an out in it.

IMO Cutler is a better passer, maybe not a better field leader(he is at this point in time though).

Randal
Apr 01, 2009
09:28 PM

Jeff, why would the 49ers give up a 1st and 4th to get someone they could have just signed as a free agent 5 weeks ago?

Tom
Apr 01, 2009
09:50 PM

I think McDaniels might have sufficient ego that he doesn't think he needs a top prospect like Sanchez to play QB. In his mind, he made Cassel, a 7th round pick into a star, he can make anyone a star.

I think the Bears should offer their 2009 and 2010 1st round picks plus Orton to the Broncos for Cutler and the Broncos 2nd round pick.

With Cutler, the Bears are just a couple pieces away (like Knny Britt and a playmaking FS). They could fill those needs in the second round and be set.

Mike in MD
Apr 01, 2009
09:51 PM

This could be the day that turns around Detroit from being the laughing stock of the league. They’re in the total driver’s seat right now & I’d be picking up the phone asking Denver which QB do you want?! Give any other additional picks that’s needed to get the deal done. Shouldn’t be much more. This is the closest guarantee that McDaniels is gonna have to get either Stafford or Sanchez.

This is such a freakin’ embarrassment that this ever got to this point. Now you put yourself into HAVING TO TRADE YOUR PROVEN FRANCHISE QB?? Just unbelievable. If I were a Denver fan I would want to hang McDaniels by his teeth. He f***** this whole thing up.

Vet QB wise there’s ABSOLUTELY NO EQUAL TRADE VALUE PERIOD. YOU NEED A HIGH QUALITY STARTING FRANCHISE QB 1 FOR 1 TRADE (+ WHATEVER). THERE’S NONE OUT THERE. AND NOW YOU HAVE TO GAMBLE WITH A ROOKIE QB FRESH OUT OF COLLEGE AS THE ONLY NEXT BEST OPTION???

If your smart Detroit pick up the phone ASAP & get the deal done now!! A 1-2 combo of Cutler to Calvin Johnson would be absolutely awesome.

It's an early MERRY CHRISTMAS DETROIT!!
CALL NOW & LOCK IT UP!

OrangeCrushDRipShanny
Apr 01, 2009
09:58 PM

I don't see the 49ers being a player, even less so if it involves Kurt Warner in a three way deal.

A real dark horse here could be the Tennesee Titan's if the Bronco brass think Vince Young has any potential still.

Will be interesting that's for sure.

A thing to think about is how are the players on whatever team trades for Jay going to react? I think Jay must be wondering the same thing, if he's not he's in for a rude awakening as I don't think the players are gonna be all open arms.

John
Apr 01, 2009
10:26 PM

How about Kansas City?? McDaniels wanted Cassell so bad, why not trade Cutler for him? I don't think KC would have any objections especially since Cassel is due to make more money than Cutler!

RHO1953
Apr 01, 2009
10:27 PM

I think he might fit the 49er's pretty well. I'm surprised the Lions aren't making a big run at him. I think the Bears are too cheap and the Vikings are clueless.

Jeff
Apr 01, 2009
10:33 PM

Randal -- The Niners offered Warner a contract, and he seriously mulled it over before deciding to go back to the Cards (for less money). So, San Fran could not have "just signed him."

I am not saying my proposed trade will happen (especially since it involves intra-division trading), but I think it does make sense for all involved. Arizona will have a top 3 offense for years to come. If they keep Warner, they will need to address QB of the future next season. San Fran gets a lot better and perhaps can make a playoff run in a weak NFC (four easy wins against the Rams and Seahawks help). SF does not give up all that much. Denver should be able to take Sanchez at 10, but if not has a great number of draft picks to improve the defense, take a different QB, or make a move for Quinn.

The two main drawbacks I see are: intra-division trades, especially involving QBs, are rare. And Arizona had a great run last year -- why tamper with things too much when you have a good shot at being successful again next year? Why take the risk of generating negative PR by moving Warner?

Other direction: If you are the Lions, you definitely offer the first overall pick for Cutler. But is that enough for Denver? I don't think Denver would take Stafford with that pick, or Curry. They would likely look at Smith and Monroe. Would either of them fit well into Denver's scheme?

John T.
Apr 01, 2009
11:28 PM

Whoever came up with the details for that three team deal involving Detroit and Cleveland is crazy.

Denver basically gets back Brady Quinn and a third rounder? Are you kidding? This would be the worst trade ever for the Broncos. A first rounder back is an absolute must in this situation, and anything less would be unacceptable. There is no way Brady Quinn and a 3 is sufficient compensation for Cutler, or even close to what will be the best offer out there.

And not to start a Godfather fight, but the analogy works. Going to the mattresses is a round-about way of saying "going to war", but Lombardi's interpretation is correct. In the movie, it meant that all the grunts were going to be holed up in a few locations, away from homes and families, until the war between the five families was over. Like jumping into the trenches. Yes, you're going to war, but more specifically you're getting in position for a prolonged fight.

Plus, any opportunity to make a "Godfather" analogy must be encouraged.

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