by Paul Bessire
August 31, 02012
Editor’s note: The NFP has partnered up with Paul Bessire and the team from Prediction Machine.com for the upcoming 2012 season. In his first article, Paul introduces you to his system and releases four season win totals.
The Predictalator has played every 2012 NFL regular season and playoff game 50,000 times before it's actually played. Based on that analysis, we are proud to present Over/Under Win Total picks. Win total lines represent the current consensus lines. CLICK HERE to read about how the Predictalator works.
The Predictalator wasn't buying Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars last season.
In 2010, this analysis accurately projected the top five preseason O/U plays including projecting the New York Jets (9.5) and Kansas City Chiefs (6.5) to go "Over" their win total lines and the Seattle Seahawks (7.5), San Diego Chargers (11.0) and Cleveland Browns (5.5) to go "Under" their win total lines. These top five picks covered by a combined total of eight team wins. In 2011, we had a "2X" pick on the Jacksonville Jaguars "Under" (6.5), which covered easily, while all preseason O/U team win total picks went 18-12-2 (60% O/U). This season, there are four picks that cover their win total number greater than 60% of the time and a total of 13 plays that cover more than 57% of the time, to qualify as "normal" or better picks.
For those interested in playing these picks, we also recommend reading this blog entry.
A sample from our preseason win total pick analysis is shown below with four notable teams listed. To view each team's projected win-loss record as well as its chances of going Over or Under the current win total lines, please subscribe to the NFL Full Season Picks.
Since launching in January 2010, this technology is over 60% against-the-spread with football Locks of the Week, over 60% ATS with Paul's Picks in the NFL, college football and the NCAA Tournament, over 57% with "normal" or better picks all-time in the NFL, NBA and MLB combined and over 53% with all playable picks. And finally, with a perfect 2011 postseason, the Predictalator is now 20-3 against-the-spread in NFL playoff games. In 2011, Paul's Picks in the NFL went 49-28 (64% ATS) on the season, while preseason O/U picks are 36-26 (58% O/U) all-time.
2012 Over/Under Win Total Picks (based on every NFL game played 50,000 times)
Follow Paul on Twitter: @predictmachine