by Joe Fortenbaugh
September 13, 02012
Our first Thursday night game of the season features two teams who probably like each other about as much as I like a healthy lifestyle. It’s Chicago at Green Bay, live from Lambeau Field. This line has seen plenty of movement over the past few days, so let’s jump right into it…
CLICK HERE to check out the current lines.
CHICAGO BEARS (1-0, 0-0 road) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (0-1, 0-1 home)
Time: 8:20pm ET, NFL Network
Open: Green Bay -6/50
Current: Green Bay -4.5/51
Current betting percentages: 52% on Green Bay, 82% on the OVER
Weather: Partly cloudy, 56 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation
1. The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against the Packers.
2. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win.
3. The Packers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games played in the month of September.
4. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
5. The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between these two teams.
CHICAGO: QUESTIONABLE: TE Kyle Adams (shoulder), CB Charles Tillman (shin), PROBABLE: LB Brian Urlacher (knee).
GREEN BAY: OUT: LB Terrell Manning (concussion), DOUBTFUL: CB Davon House (shoulder), WR Greg Jennings (groin), RB James Starks (toe), QUESTIONABLE: LB Jamari Lattimore (ankle), DE C.J. Wilson (groin).
US PRESSWIREBrandon Marshall and the Chicago offense have to be licking their chops after what happened at Lambeau last Sunday.
The Bears haven’t won a game at Lambeau Field since 2007, losing by an average of 15.3 points per game over their last four road meetings with the Packers. But the additions of wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, along with the free agent signing of running back Michael Bush, give Lovie Smith’s crew enough ammunition to hang with the vaunted Green Bay passing attack. The Pack haven’t lost back-to-back home games since 2008 and are a ridiculous 19-1 at Lambeau since October of 2009. But that hasn’t stopped the early money from coming in on Chicago, as this line has worked its way from GB -6 to as low as GB -4.5. The Packers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games while the Bears are just 1-3-1 in their last five Thursday games.
FROM THE EXPERTS
Johnny Avello, Executive Director of Race & Sports, Wynn Las Vegas: “The Packers have emerged victorious in five of their last six meetings with the Bears and with a Green Bay loss last week, the public will believe the Pack will rebound. This line has been anywhere from the Packers -4 to -6 and is currently listed at GB -4.5. This will be a huge betting matchup with the isolation of being the only game in town on Thursday night.”
Marc Lawrence, professional handicapper, Playbook.com: “It’s hard to believe that Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Eli Manning all went down together as home favorites on opening week. This is a key game for the Pack tonight as they've now dropped two in a row at Lambeau Field and would be 0-2 looking up at the 2-0 Bears should they not respond favorably. My money's on Rodgers.”
Fortenbaugh’s pick: BEARS (-4.5, bought -6 earlier in the week)
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