QUOTE: “Some people say, ‘How can you live without knowing?’ I do not know what they mean. I always live without knowing. That is easy. How you get to know is what I want to know.” -- Richard Phillips Feynman (1918-1988)

A popular refrain in the NFL is that you must “establish the run” in order to win games. As many of you from reading my work, I feel that’s just talk, because the only thing establishing the run does is allow you to kick field goals. Establishing the run doesn’t establish winning in the NFL today. Being able to run the ball late in the game to keep the lead, however, is the most critical element when discussing the run game.

Peyton ManningAPPeyton Manning

My perfect paradigm for the running game would be my team ranking in the bottom third for rushing attempts in the first and second quarters, then be in the top 15 in the third quarter, and finally, be in the top five in the fourth. I want my team to have the ability to run, but I want to run to keep the lead, not to get the lead.

Last year, the Indy Colts had the second to worst run game in the NFL but won 12 games in the very tough AFC South. Many “establish the run” pundits would say the reason they lost in the first round of the playoffs was their inability to run the ball. However, the Colts win that playoff game if they convert a third-and-two with 2:30 to go in the game. Remember, the Colts forced the Chargers to use their final timeout with 2:30 left after two running plays resulted in the third and two. Yet on that play, they decided to throw the ball, resulting in a sack and giving the Chargers the one chance they had to tie the game. Clearly, the Colts did not have confidence in their run game to call another run at the most critical time. Then, in overtime, the Colts never saw the ball as the Chargers won the coin flip and went on to win the game. Obviously, the running game was not the reason for the loss, but the lack of confidence in calling the run might have been a major factor.

This offseason, the Colts have gone through major changes off the field. But on the field, they need to find a way to improve their overall running game. The major misconception about the Colts’ running game is that they’re effective on a yards-per-carry basis. However, the reality is that they have never been a high average-per-attempt run team. In the past nine years, they have averaged over 4.0 yards per attempt just three times. In 2001, the season they won only six games (their lowest win total in nine years), they had their highest average per attempt, 4.5 yards. This is because the Colts normally have the lead late in games, and you’re never going to have a big average per attempt playing with a lead.

For the Colts to be successful running the ball, they must prove to teams that they will call runs during the game. The threat of the run goes a long way in Indy. When game planning against the Colts’ offense, opposing defensive coordinators ask one fundamental question: “What element of their offense are we going to take away?” Most teams play pass first against the Colts, keeping the box light in terms of numbers and daring the Colts to run the ball. The popular theory that resonates before playing Indy is, “Just to dare them to run the ball because they won’t.” Last season was the first in the last nine in which they had fewer than 400 rushing attempts.

Donald BrownAPFirst round pick Donald Brown could be a big part of the Colts' offense this year.

So what single factor will help the Colts improve their run game in ‘09? Confidence. Yes, they must develop confidence in their run game so that when QB Peyton Manning examines the defense, he feels confident that handing off the ball will result in a positive play. Manning has proven he can carry the team on his shoulders (as he did last year), so he’s not going to let anything get in the way of winning. If he doesn’t feel confident in the run game, he will not hand off the ball, which is what happened last year. Manning is the toughest sell the Colts have to improve the run game. In training camp this summer, if he feels comfortable with first-round pick Donald Brown -- that he can handle pass protections and handle the reads in the run game -- then he will call running plays. Manning is a tough sell, but once sold, he will make it all work.

Once defenses must cheat by sliding an extra man into the box, then the Colts’ passing game -- even without Marvin Harrison -- will explode. The treat of the run is what makes the Colts’ offense speed along, not just the result of the run.

The fans, the media and the coaches are not the ones who need to be sold on the Colts’ running game. Rather, the Colts must convince Manning this summer that they have the dependable talent to run at critical times. He’s the key.