by Joe Fortenbaugh
July 17, 02011
The purpose of the NFP Draft Value Chart is to give fantasy owners an idea of which round they should begin to target specific players. The chart is broken down specifically for owners who play in a 12-team fantasy league, but you will notice we include players who are “on the bubble,” meaning if you participate in a larger league, these would be some of the guys you should think about drafting in each respective round.
Note: The Draft Value Chart will be updated throughout the summer when necessary. We will be sure to let you know when that happens.
1. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
2. Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
3. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
4. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans
5. Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
6. LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
7. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
8. Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans
9. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
10. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons
11. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
12. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders
On the bubble: Michael Turner (RB, Atlanta Falcons), Frank Gore (RB, San Francisco 49ers), Drew Brees (QB, New Orleans Saints), Calvin Johnson (WR, Detroit Lions).
Don’t overpay for: Michael Vick (QB, Philadelphia Eagles), Steven Jackson (RB, St. Louis Rams), Dwayne Bowe (WR, Kansas City Chiefs).
Analysis: Peterson and Chris Johnson will likely go higher, meaning Charles will come at a great value. Drop Mendenhall and elevate MJD if you play in a PPR league. Don’t be surprised if Vick comes off the board in the first round. That’s a high price to pay for a guy who has trouble staying healthy.
13. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions
14. Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons
15. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
16. Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
17. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers
18. Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
19. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
20. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
21. Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
22. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams
23. Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
24. Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego Chargers
On the bubble: Tom Brady (QB, New England Patriots), Miles Austin (WR, Dallas Cowboys), Ahmad Bradshaw (RB, New York Giants), Greg Jennings (WR, Green Bay Packers).
Don’t overpay for: Peyton Hillis (RB, Cleveland Browns), DeSean Jackson (WR, Philadelphia Eagles), Brandon Marshall (WR, Miami Dolphins), LeGarrette Blount (RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers).
Analysis: Drop Vincent Jackson a bit in PPR leagues, but keep in mind that he’s in a contract year and is looking for that monster payday. Depending on how your league scores quarterbacks, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady may come off the board in this round as well, so be prepared. Don’t be surprised if Chargers tight end Antonio Gates is selected in the next round.
25. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
26. Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys
27. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
28. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Free Agent
29. Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns
30. Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers
31. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Free Agent
32. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
33. Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers
34. DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
35. Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
36. Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
On the bubble: Brandon Marshall (WR, Miami Dolphins), Tony Romo (QB, Dallas Cowboys), Wes Welker (WR, New England Patriots), Jonathan Stewart (RB, Carolina Panthers).
Don’t overpay for: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB, New England Patriots), Any tight end other than Antonio Gates, Felix Jones (RB, Dallas Cowboys), Matt Ryan (WR, Atlanta Falcons).
Analysis: Antonio Gates is likely to come off the board in the third round, so don’t be surprised if that triggers the infamous tight end run. However, a third-round selection is too high a price to pay for anybody else at that position. At this point in the draft, six quarterbacks and 17 running backs have been selected.
37. Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets
38. Brandon Marshall, WR, Miami Dolphins
39. Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
40. Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints
41. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
42. Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots
43. Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints
44. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers
45. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions
46. Stevie Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills
47. Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers
48. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys
On the bubble: Matt Schaub (QB, Houston Texans), Dallas Clark (TE, Indianapolis Colts), Fred Jackson (RB, Buffalo Bills), Santonio Holmes (WR, New York Jets).
Don’t overpay for: Anquan Boldin (WR, Baltimore Ravens), Ryan Grant (RB, Green Bay Packers), Matthew Stafford (QB, Detroit Lions), Knowshon Moreno (RB, Denver Broncos).
Analysis: Welker comes at an excellent value outside of the top 40 picks, while Dez Bryant is a wild card. At this point, 19 of the first 48 selections have been wide receivers, while only one tight end (Antonio Gates) has been selected. Stewart is a true “boom or bust” prospect in 2011.
49. Dallas Clark, TE, Indianapolis Colts
50. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, New England Patriots
51. Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans
52. Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo Bills
53. Daniel Thomas, RB, Miami Dolphins
54. Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers
55. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Denver Broncos
56. Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys
57. Felix Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys
58. Santonio Holmes, WR, Free Agent
59. Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers
60. Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
On the bubble: Sidney Rice (WR, Free Agent), Marshawn Lynch (RB, Seattle Seahawks), Matt Ryan (QB, Atlanta Falcons).
Don’t overpay for: Johnny Knox (WR, Chicago Bears), Josh Freeman (QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers), C.J. Spiller (RB, Buffalo Bills).
Analysis: Three tight ends hear their name called in Round 5, signaling the start of the TE run. Green-Ellis could slide prior to draft day due to a loaded backfield (two rookies and Danny Woodhead) and Steve Smith could climb if he gets his wish and lands with a good offense. Rookie Daniel Thomas could be headed for a ton of touches in Miami if both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams sign elsewhere.
61. Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans
62. Sidney Rice, WR, Free Agent
63. Anquan Boldin, WR, Baltimore Ravens
64. Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers
65. Mario Manningham, WR, New York Giants
66. Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers
67. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks
68. Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants
69. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
70. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos
71. Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings
72. Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers
On the bubble: Ben Roethlisberger (QB, Pittsburgh Steelers), Austin Collie (WR, Indianapolis Colts), Ryan Williams (RB, Arizona Cardinals).
Don’t overpay for: Braylon Edwards (WR, Free Agent), Beanie Wells (RB, Arizona Cardinals), Robert Meachem (WR, New Orleans Saints).
Analysis: The Vernon Davis selection makes five tight ends in six rounds, while the Matt Ryan pick puts us at nine total quarterbacks. Rice’s value could skyrocket if he lands with the right team while Manningham looks to also be available at an excellent price. Jacobs, Moreno and Boldin all have semi-limited upside.
73. Owen Daniels, TE, Houston Texans
74. Zach Miller, TE, Free Agent
75. Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints
76. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
77. Ryan Williams, RB, Arizona Cardinals
78. Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts
79. Johnny Knox, WR, Chicago Bears
80. Pierre Garcon, WR, Indianapolis Colts
81. Joseph Addai, RB, Free Agent
82. Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers
83. Mike Williams, WR, Seattle Seahawks
84. Thomas Jones, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
On the bubble: James Starks (RB, Green Bay Packers), Eli Manning (QB, New York Giants), Julio Jones (WR, Atlanta Falcons).
Don’t overpay for: Davone Bess (WR, Miami Dolphins), Ryan Torain (RB, Washington Redskins), Jay Cutler (QB, Chicago Bears).
Analysis: This may be a bit high for Graham, but he’s on the NFP sleeper list this year and we don’t want you to miss out. Ryan Williams’ stock could either rise or fall depending on how he does during training camp vs. Beanie Wells. As the No. 1 wideout in Seattle, Mike Williams could end up being a steal.
85. James Starks, RB, Green Bay Packers
86. Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
87. Braylon Edwards, WR, Free Agent
88. Mike Tolbert, RB, San Diego Chargers
89. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
90. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
91. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Detroit Lions
92. C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills
93. Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
94. Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens
95. Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans Saints
96. Mike Thomas, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
On the bubble: Steelers D/ST, Malcom Floyd (WR, Free Agent), Michael Bush (RB, Oakland Raiders), Chris Cooley (TE, Washington Redskins).
Don’t overpay for: LaDainian Tomlinson (RB, New York Jets), Randy Moss (WR, Free Agent), Mark Sanchez (QB, New York Jets).
Analysis: This is right around the point where the top D/STs will begin to get drafted, so stay on your toes. As the No. 2 playing opposite Roddy White, Julio Jones will have the potential to put up some nice numbers this season. Circle Mike Thomas’ name, because he’s another sleeper that will come at a great value. Leshoure could be in line for 7-10 touchdowns as the power back in Detroit.
97. Pittsburgh Steelers, D/ST
98. New York Jets, D/ST
99. Malcom Floyd, WR, Free Agent
100. Green Bay Packers, D/ST
101. Davone Bess, WR, Miami Dolphins
102. Chris Cooley, TE, Washington Redskins
103. Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
104. Kellen Winslow, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
105. Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals
106. Steve Smith, WR, Free Agent
107. Michael Bush, RB, Oakland Raiders
108. Ryan Torain, RB, Washington Redskins
On the bubble: Ronnie Brown (RB, Free Agent), Robert Meachem (WR, New Orleans Saints), Matthew Stafford (QB, Detroit Lions).
Don’t overpay for: Matt Cassel (QB, Kansas City Chiefs), Rob Gronkowski (TE, New England Patriots), Baltimore D/ST, Reggie Bush (RB, New Orleans Saints).
Analysis: As expected, the first D/STs come off the board in the ninth round, but don’t be shocked if any of your drafts include an owner who pulls the trigger a round or two earlier. Floyd’s value could be on the rise depending upon where he signs. Take note that 2011 features a fairly deep tight end class, so there is value to be had later in the draft. Smith is coming back from a pretty serious knee injury and could drop down the boards a bit as we get closer to the season.
109. New England Patriots, D/ST
110. Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
111. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
112. Ronnie Brown, RB, Free Agent
113. Mike Goodson, RB, Carolina Panthers
114. Robert Meachem, WR, New Orleans Saints
115. Chicago Bears, D/ST
116. Atlanta Falcons, D/ST
117. Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
118. Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
119. Aaron Hernandez, TE, New England Patriots
120. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, New York Jets
On the bubble: Danny Woodhead (RB, New England Patriots), Danny Amendola (WR, St. Louis Rams), New Orleans Saints D/ST, Brandon Pettigrew (TE, Detroit Lions).
Don’t overpay for: Jerome Simpson (WR, Cincinnati Bengals), Shane Vereen (RB, New England Patriots), Donald Brown (RB, Indianapolis Colts), Brent Celek (TE, Philadelphia Eagles).
Analysis: At this point in the draft we’ve watched 15 quarterbacks, 45 running backs and 43 receivers fly off the board. You would be wise to have already selected a starting QB and TE at this point. Brown’s value could climb if he lands with the right team during free agency, while Goodson is a potential value pick at this point in the draft. If you want an elite D/ST, you’ll have to pull the trigger by this point at the latest.
121. Danny Woodhead, RB, New England Patriots
122. Roy Helu, RB, Washington Redskins
123. Jacoby Ford, WR, Oakland Raiders
124. New Orleans Saints, D/ST
125. Matt Cassel, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
126. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit Lions
127. Greg Little, WR, Cleveland Browns
128. San Diego Chargers, D/ST
129. Baltimore Ravens, D/ST
130. Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams
131. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons
132. Bernard Scott, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
On the bubble: Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, Buffalo Bills), Chad Ochocinco (WR, Cincinnati Bengals), Emmanuel Sanders (WR, Pittsburgh Steelers), Kansas City Chiefs D/ST.
Don’t overpay for: Dallas Cowboys D/ST, Colt McCoy (QB, Cleveland Browns), Cadillac Williams (RB, Free Agent), Greg Olsen (TE, Chicago Bears).
Analysis: It’s time to roll the dice, as evidenced by the Roy Helu and Greg Little picks. If you did a good job of balancing out your roster during the first ten rounds, you now have the luxury to take some shots down the field. Bradford will be on several sleeper lists this summer, so be advised he may go sooner than the 11th round. Gonzalez’s upside is limited, while Pettigrew is trending upwards.
133. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
134. Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
135. Rashad Jennings, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
136. Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets
137. Lance Moore, WR, Free Agent
138. Montario Hardesty, RB. Cleveland Browns
139. Ricky Williams, RB, Free Agent
140. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills
141. Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints
142. Steve Breaston, WR, Free Agent
143. Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Free Agent
144. Kansas City Chiefs, D/ST
On the bubble: Mark Sanchez (QB, New York Jets), Darren Sproles (RB, Free Agent), Randy Moss (WR, Free Agent), New York Giants D/ST.
Don’t overpay for: Visanthe Shiancoe (TE, Minnesota Vikings), Nate Washington (WR, Tennessee Titans), Donovan McNabb (QB, Washington Redskins), Joe McKnight (RB, New York Jets).
Analysis: With four free agents getting drafted in Round 12, it’s safe to say these results will be tweaked after free agency. Fitzpatrick offers some nice value as a QB2 at this point, while Jennings should threaten double-digit touchdowns as the goal line back in Jacksonville. Sanders is a solid value pick and Sims-Walker could be on the rise if he lands with the right offense.
145. Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets
146. Ben Watson, TE, Cleveland Browns
147. Ben Tate, RB, Houston Texans
148. Darren Sproles, RB, Free Agent
149. Randy Moss, WR, Free Agent
150. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
151. New York Giants, D/ST
152. Kevin Kolb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
153. Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots
154. Derek Mason, WR, Baltimore Ravens
155. Arrelious Benn, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
156. Tim Tebow, QB, Denver Broncos
On the bubble: Justin Forsett (RB, Seattle Seahawks), David Garrard (QB, Jacksonville Jaguars), Jonathan Baldwin (WR, Kansas City Chiefs), Oakland Raiders D/ST.
Don’t overpay for: Devery Henderson (WR, New Orleans Saints), Chris Ivory (RB, New Orleans Saints), Cam Newton (QB, Carolina Panthers), Minnesota Vikings D/ST.
Analysis: Even though they were drafted one after another, there is a big difference between a wide receiver like Mason (aging, little upside) and a guy like Benn (entering second year, relatively high ceiling). Tate spent his rookie season on IR and missed his window when Arian Foster blew up, so his role will likely be limited. We advise you to stay away from Moss. After the crap he pulled last season, why take the risk?
157. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
158. Oakland Raiders, D/ST
159. Tony Moeaki, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
160. Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
161. David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
162. Jason Campbell, QB, Oakland Raiders
163. Colt McCoy, QB, Cleveland Browns
164. Delone Carter, RB, Indianapolis Colts
165. Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams
166. Todd Heap, TE, Baltimore Ravens
167. Detroit Lions, D/ST
168. Donovan McNabb, QB, Washington Redskins
On the bubble: Take a shot! DeMarco Murray (RB, Dallas Cowboys), Brandon Tate (WR, New England Patriots), Dexter McCluster (RB/WR, Kansas City Chiefs), Lance Kendricks (TE, St. Louis Rams).
Don’t overpay for: Kickers. Not until the last round!
Analysis: At this point, owners should have already drafted their backup quarterbacks and tight ends. We personally advise drafting a second D/ST so you can play the more favorable matchups, but that’s not a necessity. Feel free to get creative from here on out and don’t, under any circumstances, draft a kicker prior to the 16th round. There is no point!
169. Delone Carter, RB, Indianapolis Colts
170. Jason Hill, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
171. Philadelphia Eagles, D/ST
172. Golden Tate, WR, Seattle Seahawks
173. DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys
174. Dexter McCluster, RB/WR, Kansas City Chiefs
175. Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
176. Isaac Redman, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
177. Eric Decker, WR, Denver Broncos
178. Lance Kendricks, TE, St. Louis Rams
179. Brandon Tate, WR, New England Patriots
180. Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins
On the bubble: Kickers.
Don’t overpay for: N/A
Analysis: It’s all about having fun and taking chances in Round 15, especially if you play in a keeper league. Hill is expected to win the No. 2 job in Jacksonville this year, so he could be headed for a healthy dose of targets. If rookie Lance Kendricks can win the starting job, he has the potential to put up some surprising numbers. Remember to handcuff your stud running backs (Peterson, A. Foster, C. Johnson, R. Mendenhall).
181. Neil Rackers, K, Houston Texans
182. Nate Kaeding, K, San Diego Chargers
183. Matt Bryant, K, Atlanta Falcons
184. Sebastian Janikowski, K, Oakland Raiders
185. Stephen Gostkowski, K, New England Patriots
186. Josh Brown, K, St. Louis Rams
187. David Buehler, K, Dallas Cowboys
188. Garrett Hartley, K, New Orleans Saints
189. Adam Vinatieri, K, Indianapolis Colts
190. Billy Cundiff, K, Baltimore Ravens
191. David Akers, K, Philadelphia Eagles
192. Alex Henery, K, Philadelphia Eagles
Analysis: Akers is headed for a new team, but still has enough gas left in the tank to warrant a starting roster spot. Buehler could slide depending on what the Cowboys do in August. Hartley plays on an explosive offense, but is somewhat unreliable.