by Joe Fortenbaugh
December 01, 02011
Be advised that one of our favorite NFL trends will be in full effect Thursday night in Seattle.
We’ve harped on this before, but it bears repeating due to one simple fact: it’s been cashing. Over the last 15 years, there have been 12 instances where a team has played on a Sunday and then traveled more than 1,500 miles for a Thursday night game.
ICONRex Ryan and the Jets weren't laughing when they traveled to Denver for a Thursday night showdown and got beat.
In those 12 instances, the away team is 0-12 straight up and against the spread.
I take it I have your full attention at this point.
We’ve already seen this trend come into play twice this season, as the New York Jets dropped a close one at Denver in Week 12 and then just one week later, Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers fell short at Baltimore against his brother John’s Ravens.
After playing the New England Patriots on Sunday, Philadelphia will travel more than 2,700 miles to take on the Seahawks Thursday night.
Lets see what our experts have to say about this matchup.
CLICK HERE to check out the lines for Thursday night.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-7, 3-2 road) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (4-7, 2-3 home)
Time: 8:20pm ET (NFL Network)
Opening line: Philadelphia -2.5/44.5
Current line: Philadelphia -3/43
Current betting trends: 72% backing the Eagles, 57% backing the UNDER.
Philadelphia Eagles: 4-7 against the spread, UNDER is 6-5
Seattle Seahawks: 6-4-1 against the spread, OVER is 6-5
1. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four Thursday games.
2. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.
3. The Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
4. The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. NFC opponents.
5. The UNDER is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last five games vs. NFC opponents.
6. The OVER is 4-0 in the Seahawks’ last four home games.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: OUT: T King Dunlap (concussion), LB Moise Fokou (ankle), WR Jeremy Maclin (hamstring, shoulder), CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (ankle), QB Michael Vick (ribs), QUESTIONABLE: CB Nnamdi Asomugha (knee), RB LeSean McCoy (toe), PROBABLE: DT Cullen Jenkins (thumb)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: OUT: CB Byron Maxwell (illness), WR Sidney Rice (head), QUESTIONABLE: LB David Hawthorne (knee), CB Richard Sherman (calf), PROBABLE: DT Alan Branch (ankle), QB Tarvaris Jackson (pectoral)
David Payne, professional bettor, PayneInsider.com: “Wiseguys haven't shown much interest on a side at this point, but certainly a profitable long-term way to look would be Seattle +3. I have been playing against road teams with large travel on Thursday's for a few seasons now—and the 49ers were no exception on Turkey Day.
Jim Harbaugh's 49ers fell victim to a short week and long travel.
Road teams with 1,500 miles of travel or more, playing on Thursday's are now 0-12 straight up and against the number. The short week, extended travel trend is one that has been wildly profitable and to this point hasn't been factored into the number enough by bookmakers. If you remember, the 49ers came into their Thanksgiving Day matchup against the Ravens as one of the hottest ATS teams in the league. They hadn't lost a ticket for their backers since Week 16 of the 2010 campaign. So the short week, extended travel trend yields enough value at the current time to make you only look one way when talking about a side for this evening.
However, sharp bettors geared their attention towards the total when breaking down the Eagles-Seahawks showdown. Our friends at BetOnline.com opened Tuesday morning with an over/under at 45.5, and that was quickly sent down to 44, which is where the buy order had been sent in at. The total is now currently sitting at 43/43.5 across most shops. Come game time with an influx of casual bettors, we could see this tick upwards to 44 with it being a stand alone prime-time game, but you won't see it come close to where it opened at because books already know the number where wiseguys will show resistance.
Simplified game plans on short weeks, injured weapons like Vick, Maclin, and Sidney Rice on the offensive sides of the ball and your usual inflation towards the over on stand alone prime-time games make this an appealing play.”
Follow Payne on Twitter: @PayneInsider
Head over to Page 2 for more expert analysis!