by Joe Fortenbaugh
September 20, 02012
Good luck finding another game on the Week 3 schedule that has seen as big a line move as Thursday night’s Giants-Panthers showdown. New York opened as a 1.5-point road favorite, but once the news hit the wire that Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, David Diehl and Domenik Hixon wouldn’t play due to injury, the line shifted dramatically to Carolina -3. If you’re thinking about playing the Panthers, be advised that the value is long gone.
CLICK HERE to check out all of the Week 3 lines.
NEW YORK GIANTS (1-1, 0-0 road) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-1, 1-0 home)
Time: 8:20pm ET, NFL Network
Open: New York Giants -1.5/52
Current: Carolina Panthers -3/49.5
Current betting percentages: 54% on New York, 68% on the OVER
Weather: 67 degrees, 68% humidity, 2% chance of precipitation
1. The Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
2. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win.
3. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten home games.
4. The Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played in the month of September.
5. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams.
6. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
NEW YORK GIANTS: OUT: RB Ahmad Bradshaw (neck), T David Diehl (knee), WR Domenik Hixon (concussion), WR Hakeem Nicks (foot), DE Adewale Ojomo (hamstring), QUESTIONABLE: CB Michael Coe (hamstring), PROBABLE: CB Prince Amukamara (ankle), LB Keith Rivers (hamstring), RB Da’Rel Scott (knee)
CAROLINA PANTHERS: OUT: G Mike Pollak (shoulder), QUESTIONABLE: T Byron Bell (ankle), LB Thomas Davis (hamstring), S Colin Jones (shoulder), RB Jonathan Stewart (ankle), PROBABLE: LB Jon Beason (elbow), C Ryan Kalil (ankle), WR Kealoha Pilares (foot), WR Steve Smith (knee)
FROM THE EXPERTS
Chuck Esposito, Director of Race & Sports Operations, Sunset Station: “The early action has been coming in on the Panthers, which is a little surprising. Granted, Carolina is coming off a huge win against the Saints where they were able to run the ball at will. However, that doesn’t figure to be the case tonight. It’s hard to picture the defending Super Bowl champs as an underdog of almost 3 points when they aren’t playing the Eagles, Cowboys or Falcons on the road, but rather, the Panthers. If the game does go to Carolina -3, I believe the public will jump all over that number in favor of Big Blue. For me, the most important thing to remember through the first two weeks of the season is to not overreact. I’m still trying to get a gauge on many of these teams and Carolina is no exception.”
Teddy Covers, Professional Handicapper, Covers.com: “The Giants’ bevy of injuries has created an enormous amount of support for Carolina in the betting markets. New York opened as a 1.5-point road favorite, but without Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw, Domenik Hixon, David Diehl or Adewale Ojomo available this week, we've seen sharp money bet the Panthers up to -2.5, with the potential for -3s between now and kickoff. Clearly, those bettors aren't impressed with the New York’s 9-2 ATS run on the highway; 35-16 ATS long term away from home. If I see a +3, I'll pull the trigger on a wager supporting the defending Super Bowl champs.”
FORTENBAUGH’S PICK: Giants (+3)
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