by Joe Fortenbaugh
October 18, 02012
The battle for NFC West supremacy is on the line Thursday night in San Francisco as two of the league’s best defenses get together for what should be a hard-hitting affair. Let’s go inside the numbers and see if we can find an edge for tonight’s Seahawks-49ers matchup.
CLICK HERE to check out all of the Week 7 lines.
Seattle Seahawks (4-2, 1-2 road) at San Francisco 49ers (4-2, 2-1 home)
Time: 8:20pm ET, NFL Network
Open: San Francisco -8.5/39
Current: San Francisco -8/37.5
Current betting percentages: 62% backing the 49ers, 51% backing the UNDER
Weather: 75 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, winds at 9 MPH out of the west/southwest
1. The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against NFC West opponents.
2. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record.
3. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played in October.
4. The 49ers are 15-4-3 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss.
5. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams.
6. The UNDER is 5-0 in the 49ers’ last five Thursday night games.
7. The UNDER is 6-2 in the Seahawks’ last eight road games.
SEATTLE: OUT: G John Moffitt (knee), DOUBTFUL: CB Byron Maxwell (hamstring), PROBABLE: S Kam Chancellor (ankle), DT Clinton McDonald (groin)
SAN FRANCISCO: QUESTIONABLE: RB Brandon Jacobs (knee), WR Mario Manningham (shoulder), T Joe Staley (concussion), PROBABLE: K David Akers (illness), LB Tavares Gooden (elbow), P Andy Lee (hand), QB Alex Smith (right finger)
Since taking over the reigns in San Francisco, head coach Jim Harbaugh is 10-2-1 ATS at home (including the postseason), while Seattle boss Pete Carroll is just 7-12-1 ATS on the road. In addition, Harbaugh’s 49ers tend to respond very well after a loss, as the team is 4-0 ATS while surrendering a ridiculous 2.75 points per game following a straight-up defeat since 2011. This is a big number for two teams that play excellent defense, but I’m backing the 49ers in this spot.
Fortenbaugh’s pick: San Francisco (-7, purchased on Tuesday).
FROM THE EXPERTS
Chuck Esposito, Director of Race & Sports Operations, Sunset Station: “Of course with the 49ers coming off a big loss and the Seahawks coming off a huge win, this becomes a much bigger game in the surprising NFC West. The number has started to creep up a little. Right now, the 49ers are more of the public play. San Francisco is 10-2-1 ATS under Harbaugh at home with their only two ATS loses coming to the Giants, while all three of Seattle’s big wins (Dallas, Green Bay, New England) have all come at home. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the number go a little higher, but I don’t see it getting past 8. Prior to last week, all five of Seattle’s games had gone under the total and if not for the long play to beat New England, the Seahawks would be six for six on under plays.”
Marco D’Angelo, Professional Handicapper, Pregame.com: “Here's the thing with Thursday’s NFL Game: San Francisco is coming off an embarrassing loss to the New York Giants. It was a total beat down in every aspect of the game. History has shown that in his short tenure as coach of the 49ers, Jim Harbaugh has been perfect off of a loss. In fact, in games following a loss, Harbaugh’s team has yet to surrender a touchdown.
“So here's the question: Why was this line sitting at -7 all week until today? Last week San Francisco closed at -7 to the Giants. Is Vegas really trying to tell us that Seattle and the New York Giants would be a pick on a neutral site? Of course it wouldn’t be because the Giants are a better team. So with this line, it's almost as if Vegas wants 49er action. Well, they’re getting their wish because the public money is pouring in on San Francisco, as the line has moved to 7.5 across the board here in town and has even hit -8 at the LVH. I would use caution in tonight's game as Seattle is a very good defensive team and Alex Smith looked terrible last Sunday. If that continues against Seattle’s defense, laying 7.5 points can be very detrimental to your bankroll. San Francisco 17-13.”
Follow Marco on Twitter: @MarcoInVegas
Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh