by Joe Fortenbaugh
November 15, 02013
Same Bat-time, same Bat-channel. The Week 9 GameDay fantasy live chat kicks off Sunday morning at 10:30am eastern and runs for one full hour. We’ll be talking Starts & Sits, injury updates, weather reports, point spread movements, survivor selections and more. To access the chat, hit up the homepage of the NFP and look under the “Hot News & Rumors” section.
WEEK 11 SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Tennessee Titans over Jacksonville Jaguars (loss)
Plan B: New York Giants over Oakland Raiders (won)
Already played: Indianapolis Colts (WK 1), Baltimore Ravens (WK 2), Seattle Seahawks (WK 3), Denver Broncos (WK 4), Atlanta Falcons (WK 5, loss), San Francisco 49ers (WK 6), Green Bay Packers (WK 7), New Orleans Saints (WK 8), Dallas Cowboys (WK 9), Tennessee Titans (WK 10, loss).
This week: HOUSTON TEXANS over Oakland Raiders
Plan B: ARIZONA CARDINALS over Jacksonville Jaguars
Why: Scary play, as the Texans have dropped seven straight contests and seem hell-bent on finding ways to lose football games during the fourth quarter. But note that Oakland is 0-4 on the road this season, is playing the second half of back-to-back road contests this Sunday and has turned the ball over ten times over their last four outings. The upside here is that Houston quarterback Case Keenum has been solid in his three starts, tossing seven touchdown passes with zero interceptions for a QB rating of 105.1.
MISFIRE OF THE WEEK
Last week: Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans (won)
PICK: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over San Francisco 49ers
Analysis: The Saints are 5-0 ATS at home this season (winning by an average of 20.2 points per game), 21-5 ATS over their last 26 home contests and have the Carolina Panthers breathing down their necks in the race for the NFC South. Speaking of Carolina, the Panthers are coming off an extremely physical showdown with San Francisco last week, the effects of which will no doubt be felt during the second half of Sunday’s tilt in New Orleans. Note that integral San Francisco components TE Vernon Davis and S Eric Reid both suffered head injuries last Sunday and have been limited in practice this week.
LVH SUPERCONTEST SELECTIONS
Last week: 2-3
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans (won)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers
CLEVELAND BROWNS (+5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+2.5) vs. Detroit Lions
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-12.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
CLICK HERE to check out all of the current Week 11 lines.
START ‘EM UP
Case Keenum, QB, Houston Texans (vs. Oakland): Is averaging 274.0 passing yards per game over his three starts this season, with six touchdown passes over his last two outings. In addition, Keenum has yet to throw an interception in 2013 despite attempting 102 passes. The former Houston Cougars standout should be at it again this Sunday against an Oakland defense that is currently surrendering an average of 22.2 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (11th-most in NFL).
Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers (at Miami): Mathews has found the end zone in two of his last three starts and has a tasty matchup on deck with a Miami Dolphins team that is not only highly dysfunctional, but whose defense currently ranks 25th in the NFL against the run (119.1 yds/gm) while permitting an average of 24.3 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (second-most in NFL).
Mathews should find plenty of running room Sunday in Miami.
Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Detroit): Has been targeted 33 times over his last three starts and is coming off a solid 6-104-0 performance against the Buffalo Bills in Week 11. Expect a shootout in Pittsburgh on Sunday against a Lions secondary that ranks 27th in the league against the pass (275.6 yds/gm) while giving up an average of 28.7 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season (third-most in NFL).
Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona Cardinals (at Jacksonville): Has carried the ball 26 times for 209 yards and a touchdown over his last two outings while catching four passes on six targets for an additional 26 yards. Ellington isn’t a workhorse running back, so owners shouldn’t expect 18+ touches on Sunday at Jacksonville. But this is a very favorable matchup against a Jaguars defense that currently ranks dead last in the NFL against the run (153.0 yds/gm) while giving up an average of 22.5 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (fourth-most in NFL).
Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington Redskins (at Philadelphia): Has recorded ten or more targets in each of his last three starts and is in the midst of a two-game stretch that features 14 receptions for 291 yards and a touchdown. Note that Garcon currently ranks third in the NFL in targets (99) and faces an Eagles defense on Sunday that ranks 31st in the NFL against the pass (306.5 yds/gm) while surrendering more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than any other team in the league (30.5 pts/gm).
Rob Housler, TE, Arizona Cardinals (at Jacksonville): Not the best option on the board, but for those of you who may be scrambling for a TE this Sunday, Housler makes for a nice option. The three-year veteran caught four passes for 57 yards and a touchdown in Week 10 against the Texans and takes on a Jacksonville defense this Sunday that is permitting an average of 11.6 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends in 2013 (second-most in NFL).
New York Jets, D/ST (at Buffalo): The Bills have scored a grand total of just 40 points over their last three games, with seven turnovers and exactly zero wins to show for their lackluster efforts. Look for more of the same Sunday against a refreshed Jets team that is coming off the bye and currently ranks eighth in the NFL in total defense (325.2 yds/gm).
SIT ‘EM DOWN
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers (at New Orleans): Kap is completing only 56.4 percent of his passes on the season with nine touchdowns and six interceptions and looked awful last week against an elite defense in the Carolina Panthers (11/22, 91 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT). We’re expecting more of the same Sunday at the Voodoo Dome, where the San Francisco quarterback runs into a Saints defense that is permitting just 15.6 fantasy points per game to opposing signal-callers this season (third-fewest in NFL).
Stevan Ridley, RB, New England Patriots (at Carolina): The Panthers have surrendered only two rushing touchdowns on the season and have permitted just one running back (C.J. Spiller, Week 2) to run for more than 100 yards against their defense. In addition, this unit is surrendering just 14.1 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (fifth-fewest in NFL). Ridley has come on strong as of late (six touchdowns over last four games), but we’re going to take a pass on his services in Week 11.
US PRESSWIREDon't expect a bounce-back performance from Kaepernick on Sunday.
Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers (at Miami): Has found the end zone three times over his last five starts while staking claim to the No. 1 receiver job in San Diego, but Sunday will mark the fourth time this season that the Bolts have traveled to the eastern time zone for a football game. And while the Miami Dolphins are a burning car crash of a franchise at the moment, the team is still permitting an average of just 16.0 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (fourth-fewest in NFL).
C.J. Spiller & Fred Jackson, RBs, Buffalo Bills (vs. New York Jets): Spiller has rushed for just one touchdown on the season and Jackson hasn’t eclipsed 80 rushing yards in a game since September 29. So not only will these two be stealing carries from one another, but they’ll be doing it against a Jets defense that ranks first in the league against the run (73.8 yds/gm) while surrendering an average of just 12.9 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs in 2013.
Greg Jennings and the rest of the Minnesota wide receivers (at Seattle): It doesn’t matter if it’s Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel or Josh Freeman under center this Sunday because the Seattle defense will be relentless in its pursuit of whatever below-average signal-caller the Vikings decide to trot onto the field. Note that the Seahawks are giving up an average of just 15.4 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (third-fewest in NFL). In all honesty, the best Minnesota wide receiver to start this week would be Percy Harvin. Too bad the Vikings traded their most explosive pass-catching weapon away to Seattle this past offseason.
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers (at New Orleans): Is looking to come back from a head injury suffered in Week 10 against the Carolina Panthers to challenge a New Orleans defense that is surrendering an average of just 5.7 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (fourth-fewest in NFL).
Kansas City Chiefs, D/ST (at Denver): The Chiefs may rank first in fantasy points at the D/ST position through the first ten weeks of the season, but do you really want to roll the dice with this unit against Peyton Manning in Denver? There’s a good reason why the Broncos are currently listed as 8.5-point favorites in Las Vegas.
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